Crypto Anyone thinking/planning to short bitcoin?

Yes, that was my thoughts as well watching it from a couple of days back of where the next major line of support could be.

People love to knock charts as phoney, and some of the charting I see occasionally is a bit out there, but I think there is perfectly valid logic behind basic support/resistance theory.

A price breakout is where a large amount of people buy in a short period of time. The steeper the rise, the more people are piling in for short-term gains in a short period. They are the recent entrants who would have bought above the previous support line (effectively a higher price), pushing prices higher and higher.

Those that got in towards the peak are the quickest to sell as they are the soonest in the red, but eventually, as it approaches the previous breakout level, most of that large pool of entrant buyers have also become sellers and left the market.

Those left holding are the long-termers who got in before the breakout, or maybe they (sold and) have been replaced by those that bought in the bubble period and now stubbornly refuse to realise their loses. So the price can stabilise a bit around the old resistance level. But if that gets breached, people can start to panic sell again, and so it can roll over for a while.

And well, trading houses and merchant banks (the ones with the money) are usually always looking at the same thing, so these become a little of self-fulfilling prophecies. Not sure how much they are playing with BTC but similar principles can apply.

 

That's what I was wondering about. How many people actually hold the volume...

Re charts I used to be really into them a long time ago. I guess some old habits are hard to kill off...

 

You sound exactly like we did on the way up....

 

But my mindset is its just a pure gamble like the casino, not investing at all.

 

Got out long time ago. Lost not alot, didnt see it any different to black or red on roulette really. A punt ( not just in the monetary sense) now and then keeps life interesting

 

Rules number one never short volatiles stocks/assets that has potential to hit the sky like bitcoin you better off get a put option, you limit your risk but you stand for all the gains.

it is still a form of short but a better way with limited risk

 

Info below first Posted Dec 8th, 2017 and reposted Dec 17th, 2017.........

Bitcoin now - same chart I post to warn you all of the decline coming in December 2017 - posted here that the exact date range of the reversal would be 8th - 22nd Dec, 2017 and decline at least until Feb and possibly much longer also said we are going back to at least 8,400.


Every shorting opportunity during this decline was clearly given by the growth harmonic lines with high accuracy. You only had to glance at this chart I posted a year ago to get a near perfect short price entry every time price approached and touched the inside curve of the arcs. Look at how each retracement touched and rejected each successive lower harmonic (see arrows - some of these you need to zoom in due to chart scaling).

@Laker you owe me a Bitcoin bro......on second thoughts would you mind paying me in cash?

 

Hi Alex - we are well past February, and while there were a couple of rallies, they have been to lower and lower "highs". (and less volatile swings) Thoughts going forward? Is it just going to run along in a narrow band around USD$6k - or any big drops (or rises) likely?

 

@Danyool It's harder to get a read on it now, gone in to a narrow range and looks quite inactive. Unless volume suddenly ramps up again, most likely a slow painful death is on the cards.

Obviously it's a non-mainstream trading instrument and essentially a form of inconvenient and no income 'cash' that behaved much like the tulip mania bubble. I wonder if it will ever recover to anywhere near where it was and doubt it will, mainly due to the fact it is not an income producing asset, has no tangibility or backing, and has no foreseeable reason to gain in value.

Banks have essentially now commandeered the Distributed Ledger Technology and a major change quietly began this year around July unbeknownst to the public. Some economists believe this is one of the disruptive reasons credit markets tightened and equities markets have seen such violence a short time after this new tech was beginning to be adopted by banks.

An interesting new vehicle for an investment grade opportunity relating to this technology space is beginning to make an appearance (and almost unknown to the public but high level of awareness amongst the elite). These are new Distributed Ledger Technology Bond funds. Not sure if anyone is aware of this yet......interesting that World Bank has selected the Commonwealth Bank of Australia to release the first ever Blockchain backed Bond - they are calling it Bond-I (like the beach!). Look for some possible interesting price moves on CBA when this info becomes more widely known

The World Bank is preparing for the world's first blockchain bond

The rapid value increase of crypto was pure speculation founded on excitement about the 'magnificent new technology' somehow translating to a higher value of the crypto itself. No one appeared to stop and ask themselves how a big pile of Bitcoin is useful to have for retirement purposes and the answer is of course, it isn't. Unless you are lending against it where is becomes more like cash in terms of the ability to structure it into the traditional regulated monetary system.......hmmmmmm.

Of all the cryptos, Bitcoin may survive on the basis of brand name, some of them will have to survive because the tech is now going mainstream and there has to end up being at least one - but which one? Like most things the banks will aim to dominate and manipulate their position so are likely to invent or completely corner their own crypto-currencies and force them in to the market as the new mainstream versions. Personal view is that most the 'alt-coins' will eventually sink down close to zero value.

No advice.

 

Thanks @Alex Straker - yeah, a slow demise looks possible. Haven't heard about the CBA link, so will check it out.

Thanks

 

Welcome, hope it helps

 

I remember a few years back, A$10K BTC, was a complete pipe dream.
People suggesting it could happen were not taken seriously for a second. Myself, never really thought it could happen.
The ones who had followed early on had seen BTC at $10-$20, so seeing BTC at $100 was just crazy. Especially since before the $10 range it was in the $1 range!
It had had its day. How many people said that back then already!
Little did everyone know the next run was taking BTC to over $1k.

Today it is sitting at A$9000.
I personally don't think BTC will drop to nothingness, at least not this time around.
If we had dropped back to $100, then perhaps yeah I could see it being the end.
But the last wave has seen so much involvement, people all around the world.
Many disappointed right now, but when the market starts rebounding there'll be many who don't want to "miss the boat".

But hey no one knows for sure. Maybe unlike the previous times, there'll never be any rebound.
Let's not forget though there has never been more involvement, development and legislation in the space, that is despite what the prices are.

A bit of perspective may not be a bad thing when looking at BTC, all these crazy runs and crashes have already repeatedly happened in the past - can't say this one feels particularly different.

 

I guess Fidelity, NASDAQ, BAKKT, NYSE, Morgan Stanley and others are all wrong... guess we are going to Zero...

Guess I’ll just go and buy some undervalued stocks...

 

Also a few more highlights from 2018... courtesy A.Pomp..

“Morgan Stanley released a report yesterday stating that cryptocurrencies have become “a new institutional investment class.” The positive language is another sign that digital assets have successfully transitioned from the fringe to an essential part of every investor’s portfolio.

Just this year we have seen:

• Major endowments jump in, including Yale, Harvard, MIT, Stanford, Notre Dame, and UNC.
  
  
• Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund invest directly in Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume.
  
  
• Fidelity announce a spin off, Fidelity Digital Assets, solely dedicated to custody and investing in the nascent industry.
  
  
• Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and others announce their intentions to empower clients to trade cryptocurrency and derivatives.
  
  
• CNBC provide daily coverage of price movements and industry news/updates.”
  

 

And it is not 9k aud, it is AUD 5071.54 right now
Good luck keeping it... not for me.

 

Interesting reading in 2022

 

That $5k bitcoin is still up almost 6X , even after the massive collapse this year. Not bad.