Annual suburb growth / Rental yield figures

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by TopCat, 3rd Nov, 2017.

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  1. TopCat

    TopCat Well-Known Member

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    Just wondering what would be a good range to aim for when searching areas to purchase an investment property?

    Dummy search shown on the web link below:

    Epping Investment Property Market Data

    5% rental yield enough?
    20% suburb growth to much?

    I've been looking all over Melbourne to see different stats. Both lower and higher then the epping example above.
     
  2. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Q1 - why are you looking at 2BR house - it's about the most rarest thing in Epping (2BR unit yes, but not house)

    Q2 - 20% over a 10 year period shown by the graph is only 3.6% pa growth 0 that's a no go. 7%pa over 10 years compounding. Change the search criteria to 3BR house Epping. 7.5%pa growth, 3.6% yield is about what you find in Melb.

    As everyone always says - depends on your strategy.
    If you want max tax efficiency i.e. your household income over $200k+, then maybe better to go for higher growth, lower yield (try post code 3122 for 3 br house)

    The Y-man
     
  3. TopCat

    TopCat Well-Known Member

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    Epping link was only an example. Looking at 4 room houses, average price rnge of around 500k.

    Will screen shot my spreadsheet today of what I've taken note of.
     
  4. TopCat

    TopCat Well-Known Member

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  5. Anthony Brew

    Anthony Brew Well-Known Member

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    Please be careful when looking at annual growth over 10 years.
    Current property cycle is around 15-17 years. 10 years will completely ruin the correctness of the data and you will end up making a massive mistake.

    Suggest you read a book on the property cycle (by Trass is an excellent one) and you will understand why your current thinking (which is normal to think of when you don't yet know the bigger picture) is so out of whack with the reality of the property market.

    If you go by Sydney over last 10 years vs Sydney between 2003 and 2013, the growth will be so different that you will not even believe it is the same location.
     
    The Y-man likes this.
  6. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    @TopCat

    In additon to what @Anthony Brew posted above, please make note some of your annual growth figures are based on 5 years not 10.

    For instance, take Wollert. The 18.6% pa is only for the pas 5 years, as the area was farmland before that (and therefore no data).

    The Y-man
     
  7. Anthony Brew

    Anthony Brew Well-Known Member

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    I don't see how those cash flows are correct. Take off 30% from the gross yield to get net yields and then compare to the interest rate you are using. Yield of 4.1% isn't going to be anywhere near CF positive without deductions.
     
  8. TopCat

    TopCat Well-Known Member

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    I'm not really fussed in regards to the cash flow that was showing to me. If rent 100% pays the mortgage, if would be great; but if we need to factor in the difference from our own pocket, we will manage.

    Thinking of now going through a buyers agent, after the bank provides pre-approval.
     
  9. AlexV_Sydney

    AlexV_Sydney Well-Known Member

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    when market is flat for many future years,

    even when rent pays all expenses and the mortgage, that's not enough. To be positive, it should give you more than if you invest your deposit somewhere else (term deposits, non-risky shares, etc), otherwise it can be considered as loss.
     
    Beano likes this.

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