NSW Am I about to make a bad location decision on the central coast?

Me and my partner are about to pull the pin on a property we've found in the NSW Central Coast. Budget ~800k.

It's a 5bed, needs a bit of work but not too much and I think we're getting an ok price. However I'm really torn on the suburb (Kanwal) for two reasons:

1. The suburb is right next to the Hamlyn Terrace 'Growth Hub' where a tonne of new properties are getting built, and the suburb itself is about 50% uncleared land that I'm sure will become new properties (Retirement villages have already filled a chunk of the space). Our place was built in the 80s, and I've heard mixed messages about buying in a location like this (Either increased new supply will devalue our place, or the increase in new home prices will drive up the price of other homes in the area).
2. The suburb has historically lower growth compared to similar suburbs in the area (Although it has had a slightly higher median and less property sales):
   • The southern Tuggerah lake suburbs (Killarney vale, Berkeley vale, etc.) have had the strongest growth over the past 8 years at around 9% YOY and are on average 10mins drive to the beach.
   • Gorokan, which is right next to Kanwal but has a fair bit more 'lakeside' properties has had pretty strong growth at 8.7% YOY and is about 12 mins drive to the beach.
   • The coastal towns like Toukley and Budgewoi have had around 7.8% growth, and Ideally I wanted to buy here but price rises in the last 3 months alone mean we're now priced out of that area.
   • Kanwal has only experienced 7.3% YOY, and the only reason I can think of as to why is that it's too far from the lake (15min walk) and about 15mins drive to the beach. Speaking to the locals and looking on microburbs however, it seems like a really nice safe suburb with no housing commission - something Gorokan doesn't have going for it.

The reason we're considering it is because as a whole we believe the central coast will rise in value into the future as people leave Sydney for more affordable accommodation in proximity to the beach, and even if our town isn't ideal it will experience a ripple effect from surrounding towns.

In a normal market, I'd just say no to this property and keep looking. But the market in the central coast is so hot I'm worried if we say no, prices in the next 1-2 months could rise and we may end up paying the same amount for an even worse place. Is this a bad decision?

 

No comment on the area, but you are basically saying FOMO is leading you into a purchase you wouldn't ordinarily consider.
Thats a big red flag right there.

 

There is certainly FOMO, but I'm struggling because I don't know if I'm just letting great get in the way of good. I think as a whole the central coast is a good bet, I just don't know if this suburb within the central coast is the best bet.

 

Nothing unique to the Coast or property, but FOMO rarely leads to successful investment decisions. Good luck however.

 

Imho, if you ask a thousand opinions on here, you'll get hundreds of different takes, most of which won't be very informed.

I would do my DD (seems you are) to look for value relative to neighbouring areas. If you conclude their is infact value, try to buy something with add value ability too.

Will you do well in 5 years? There is never any certainty. But if your DD is telling you there is value to be had, then YOU make the decision. Be brave and back yourself and your DD.

99% of folks on here won't have done the in depth DD on the specific area you're looking at, so take opinions with a grain of salt. Sure, listen to folks, but let your DD be the overriding factor in your decision.

 

Is it an investment or your ppor?

 

An investment

 

Everyone who is buying into this market faces the same issues & again when they sell - will it be a good time, do my circumstances require me to sell at this time etc.

 

Yep. There are no easy answers. Many folks looking for THE answer. Doesn't exist.