Adelaide into the red

I think this forum really needs more threads started on Adelaide that contain the same arguments repeated ad infinitum.

 

Yep I think 3 years now...

 

I think Adelaide has bottomed, but what will make it rise?

 

LoL. The car industry's contributions to exports and import substitution are tiny. And how much taxpayer subsidies did we waste just to do that?

Keeping the car industry will NOT make the dollar go up at all LoL.

 

Haha.. Well an improvement in the local economy, new defense contracts which are looking increasingly likely, even lower interest rates for OO, considerably greater affordability compared to all the major capital cities. Rents continuing to grind higher which tip the buying vs renting equation as it has elsewhere, investors looking for yield with serviceability now more of a concern when trying to obtain new funding. Other than the major regionals there are only a couple of capital cities which don't look fully valued presently.
The biggest factor though would have to be general sentiment, when it turns everyone will jump in like any other market, some people might like to think this time it's different but history says otherwise.

 

Agreed. Afterall it is still lagging behind the number of threads hyping Brisvegas!

 

There's no issue with 'keeping the car industry' - it's gone. And there is no question that the car industry contributed to our very high standard of living since WW2 - as I said earlier - the absence of a local manufacturing base will put significant downward pressure on the dollar.

In the second place, the subsidies were actually very small in Australia compared to places like the United States and Thailand, where taxpayer subsidies of car production are actually much higher - even Germany uses taxpayer money to keep the car-makers going.

Finally, the car industry was a much better investment and had many multiplier effects through the economy as opposed to spending $2-3 billion every year on Job Network - which actually has very little impact on the unemployment rate - or on building submarines - which doesn't have the same impact in the economy.

 

Comparative Advantage
Could have better used these resources in activities we have comparative advantage in.
Better to buy cheaper but high quality cars from overseas than try to be good in everything.

 

Next state election will be quite telling i think. ALP have been in forever and a day and just aren't performing. Consumer and business confidence will improve under more sensible leadership.

 

there is nothing, and I mean Nothing, can happen to Adelaide that will see it match the hype around Brisbane.
unless I decide to hype Adelaide...

 

Please don't, we like getting access to all the bargains

 

Problem is that the election is still 3 years away. Also I have no idea how good is Steven Marshall.

Maybe I should buy something in Adelaide in 2017, just before the election.

 

How's the house and land market in Adelaide?

 

Depends where you look.
Some builders are quiet so offering things like 18 week build time guarantees. Some land estates (like Playford in the north and Seaford Rise in the south) are too far away for my liking, wouldnt want neither a ppor nor rental at either of them.
Inner suburb infill however is great

 

Perth had a pretty competitive house and land market before the boom and prices raised during the boom and are dropping a bit now.

What kind of equity gain will there be after the construction? Perth pre-boom was like 10%+ depending on the suburb.

 

Really depends on how well you buy. There's less in those outer suburbs i mentioned, I dont think they have that much resale value to be honest. For the inner ones I've seen anything from 5-20%

 

looks like Adelaide is past the bottom and now rising according to 'Australia's largest independent property valuation and advisory group'

 

No personal offence to the original poster but median statistics don't mean ****. It's just a quantitative figure. You need to do qualitative assessments to determine the real value and price movements. And sorry for repeating myself but the ONLY way to do this is to actually go to auctions/opens and follow up by fining out what prices are being achieved, over at least a 12 month period.

Simple example: I was looking at a property last weekend, pics look awesome, I walked in and could see termite mud tracks all the way to the ceiling in multiple rooms- no mention of that in the description, and couldn't tell from the pics. So when it sells below the median for the suburb- for anyone that hadn't attended the open they'd be left scratching their head or thinking the suburb value is in free fall.

Get out there people, you can only find out limited amounts from your keyboard.

Pete Wargent explained it really well here in his explanation of only using 'LIKE FOR LIKE' sales to truly determine capital growth
http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/10/rubbery-suburb-median-prices.html

 

I'm sorry but that property clock is rubbish, it's just too much of a generalisation.

 

Very much this. What we've been witnessing on the ground is not what some commentators are saying. More and more people are attending opens, auctions are continuing going over expectations, etc