ASX Shares A Closer Look at the Big 4

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by Alex Straker, 15th Dec, 2017.

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  1. skater

    skater Capitalist -- www.skatepro.com.au Premium Member

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    I got a small parcel at that price. Really wishing I got more though.
     
  2. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

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    I think Monday afternoon could be an opportunity, who knows what the media will stir up over the weekend.

    This morning's price drop quickly recovered, should have got some then as well.
     
  3. lamecrocs

    lamecrocs Well-Known Member

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  4. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

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    Take a step back, high level top line and bottom line of major banks:

    Top line - Majority of income comes from mortgages, most of which is mature and not taken out in the last 5 years. Can't see top line change significantly

    Bottom line - market cost of funding is increasing, but we are seeing Fed reserve holding off further increases. Yes there will be compliance cost, refunds etc. Still can't see a scenario where this has a fundamental impact

    I'm interested in understanding the logic for further share price decline against the current P/E and dividend yield.
     
  5. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    We are right on track for a FEB low :)

    ANZ and WBC are right in the forecast buy zone, CBA and NAB are still hovering a little above.

    Don't need to be too fussy about price hitting the exact zone, prices (& yields) are already very good now on a long term basis.

    There are multiple reasons why FEB is likely to produce long term lows for the big 4.

    upload_2019-2-3_15-28-3.png
    upload_2019-2-3_15-28-20.png upload_2019-2-3_15-28-54.png upload_2019-2-3_15-29-15.png

    No advice
     
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  6. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

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    Was it a scared retail investor sell out this morning?

    Big spike up after 11am, people know something about the RC report that others don't??
     
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  7. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @Tofubiscuit Not too sure, I tend to come back to TA for the practical answers of precisely when to act.

    Just noticed thanks to some feedback from one of my students that the green median line set on my NAB chart has accidentally been moved out of position. Please ignore the green median set on the NAB chart, I will re-post it with corrected line work later. Levels of interest remain the same :)

    When time permits I will also do some more detailed work on more specific timing (using a daily chart) to see if we can nail the forecast for the day of the low.

    No advice
     
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  8. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

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    Anyone willing to guess how much higher the big 4 share price will be tomorrow?

    personally, I say +3%
     
  9. almostthere

    almostthere Well-Known Member

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    3-5% is my guess.

    Bought NAB and Westpac today yippe,
    Probably the lowest point for 2019?
     
  10. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    For those who are interested, here are the most likely dates to watch for a possible low (allow for a day either side and bear in mind these timing techniques indicate strong chance of a pivot meaning it can be either a high or low).

    7FEB19
    20FEB19
    4MAR19

    These are based on CBA which tends to slightly lead the Big 4 in pattern development and often gets bought one or two days earlier than the others. I have not had time to examine the time cycles of each bank individually. CBA shows these are the key dates to look for a pivot. Also look for sudden & major spike in volume as another hint (institutional buying).

    upload_2019-2-4_17-30-29.png

    Also, here's the NAB chart with line work corrected....(key info remains same)

    upload_2019-2-4_17-23-16.png

    No advice
     
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  11. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    I haven’t looked at the market for days but saw media reports of hedge funds getting in early for the kill. Based on the initial reaction to the report perhaps there might be some frantic short covering tomorrow?
     
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  12. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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    Alex
    Is that a typo on CBA at 59-60 in feb?

    Currently trading in the $70 range?

    Blacky



     
  13. pippen

    pippen Well-Known Member

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    "You cant predict but you can prepare" Howard Marks.
     
  14. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Yep, I threw a few extra bottles of home brew in the fridge.
     
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  15. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    The cut off period for CBA for the div's is only a matter of a week plus ,so going by what happens every time CBA may well rise further and faster now that the market is free to carry on as before..imho..
     
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  16. PandS

    PandS Well-Known Member

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    So far the future market hasn't price in for big bank rally tomorrow not much more than what they already achieved on leaky intraday high but we don't know for sure until the market is open at 10am
     
  17. PandS

    PandS Well-Known Member

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    a bit of a rally from future market since the US market open
    CBA 1/2 yearly earning reports Wednesday
     
    Last edited: 5th Feb, 2019
  18. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    upload_2019-2-5_6-25-42.png

    That's the Russell 2000 so far this year ,and I have been watching the DOW overnight and now that the RC paper-wise in complete and all the useless over supply of data from the past six months is in the rubbish bin it's back to business because everything was already priced into the market...
     
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  19. PandS

    PandS Well-Known Member

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    I took a short on the index future 5940, I am betting against a bank strong rally, if they rally hard I lose if not I cashed in, 10:30 I will know one way or another :)
    Index price for a strong rally today
     
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  20. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

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    That's a brave move mate? Why do you think the index will fall given positive outcome of the RC report and good vibes overnight with SP500?
     
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