8 Parameters of Capital Growth

Hey mate, I'm just looking at the Google map at I've noticed something for the first time.

There is a large vacant land in Bayswater, between Railway parade and Tonkin Hwy. The main problem I see with this is that developers can bring massive supply at anytime reducing housing prices in Bayswater.

What are your thoughts?

 

What is the zoning of the land and who owns it? If it is not residential and not privately owned then it is not of concern?

 

Can't it be rezoned (potentially) at any time?

I attached the picture of the area.

 

Mansfield and Wishart are the next ring out from the recent Mt Gravatt 'hot spot', so it makes sense. Some sections of this area don't have a great appeal (either close to major motorway, or views of large electrical towers), so you'd really need to be 'on the ground' to see if the houses you were interested in had a good feel about them.

Carina houses are being flattened, in large numbers, to make way for blocks of units. It is really changing the appeal of the suburb. What used to be streets of cute little post-war places (many of which were well maintained and had good kerbside appeal) are now starting to feel like concrete jungles. There are more cars parked in the quite side streets - it's not a good look, or vibe. I'd be careful about buying in this area (especially PPoR buyers).

 

Hey Toni,

What are some other leading indicators you would look at?

 

Cool. So the 9th indicator:
• Check Google map for high rise construction and oversupply.

 

They're not high-rise construction - only 2 or 3 floors - but enough to take the 'cute, white picket fence in suburbia' feel out of the area. Quite a few developers are well known in the area (such as Belle) for buying the larger blocks (or even adjoining blocks), removing the house(s), and putting up these new blocks of units in their place.

If I was in a house, I'd hate having one of those unit blocks next door - you'd get no privacy in your own back yard.

 

Thanks KayTea.

So you are not talking just about building townhouses and villas in the area? Because I can't see these having too negative impact on the supply or feel of the suburb.

 

Not really. Depends on the MRS zoning or reservation. If it is bush forever, ROS, commercial or industrial, then it is a safe bet it won't be rezoned to residential any time in the near to medium future.

Also, it's on the wrong side on Tonkin highway

 

I think a lot of people will misinterpret the score..... ie. a high value should be a caution to buyers as it's a sellers market & the ship has sailed for that area.

It seems to be a useful tool to corroborate other info sources & DD but I'd be looking at areas on the turn, not already hitting a high score.

Does it do trend analysis? That's what I prefer. Tracking metrics over time to see the change/shift.

 

100% agree.

I don't think it gives trends, however you can trend each individual metric yourself and make a conclusion (such as vacancy rates etc.).

I believe residex predictions reports do something very similar, that's why I'll buy one of those reports for Perth before I decide to buy. Of course the report will need to go hand in hand with my own DD.

 

Why is that the wrong side of Tonkin highway?

 

Some are townhouses and villas (and they look beautiful, too), but there are also unit blocks. Have a look at these: 1 and 2 and 3

 

Hmm.. they look like pretty big apartment blocks. Potentially oversupply issues. But would this impact on the surrounding houses?

I'm thinking if families like the suburb, wouldn't they prefer to live in the detached houses anyway? And because there are all these new developments, hence ratio houses/apartments decreases, wouldn't the house prices even increase due to their scarcity (less and less of them)?

 

I looked into it a bit more. It's classed as industrial area (SCA10 - special control area)

 

Prices are higher on the other side

 

Yeah, that's not going to resi any time soon

 

I just looked into planned developments for Bayswater, Morley and some other areas. Obviously the info is easily accessible on city council websites. All these suburbs have same really exciting future plans.

However the main problem I see here is that there are no set dates. So it can happen in the next 10, 20 years.. or maybe never. So my conclusion is to rely only on the current infrastructure.

How do you use this info? I can't see much value in it.

 

I don't

 

Agree