QLD $6.3b development to change suburb forever

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...r/news-story/91d82ef3a94bde50856097f77a917201

You may need to google the title of this thread to get around the paywall.

High Density development around Springfield Lakes train station. Big call assuming that many people will want to live in a high density unit that far from the city when there are no surrounding lifestyle benefits.

 

That's what they said about Liverpool, Castle Hill, Rouse Hill, Blacktown, Penriff and more.

 

It's about creating a destination. Key is that it is supported by infrastructure. Best thing is to get in before the herd.

Rouse Hill median grew approx 100% in 8 years from 2008. The new Town Centre has totally transformed the place. It was a golf course and paddocks until 2006. Further work is starting this year that will almost double the size of the town centre. The rail link under construction is a significant factor in the price growth of the area.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...t/news-story/f9d9aa0f021e28b58373dbf8f558655a

Not suggesting that Springfield will experience that sort of growth, however people like lifestyle and convenience.

I think @Scott No Mates may have been referring to new new Thornton suburb which is across the railway line from Penrith Westfield.

http://www.landcom.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/ThorntonMasterplanJuly2014FINAL1.pdf

 

The announcement for the metro to Rouse Hill wasn't made until a few years ago before that there was only a shopping centre.

I'm not allowed to travel that far (Penriff) without a chaperone.

 

Given the people behind it I am sure it will be successful. I just can't personally get my head around living in unit out there, though I would live with the entire tribe in a unit in the CBD if I could find something big enough (and when that size that didn't require me to sell one child each year to cover the body corporate).

Also need to take my comments about being that far out into perspective.

When I had to relocate from Kangaroo Point to Coorparoo (pre-children) it was the cause of a very stressful conversation with Mrs RPI as to if I could survive living that far out in the sticks.

 

The problem with the approach taken by the developers here is that they've forgotten that they are not developing in China, where high-rise way out in the suburbs is the norm.

 

Not quite. Originally a plan based on heavy rail was proposed and the town centre design had space set aside for a train station. So infrastructure was part of the vision. The problem was that governments took time to get their act together. Quite a shomozzle. Ultimately the heavy rail plan was cancelled and the metro got the go ahead.

 

@Whitecat, the market factors at Rouse Hill are the primary reason I have confidence in Petrie doing well. Won't be on that scale but it will do well.

 

Thanks for the post rpi I will be watching this one as well because I have thought exactly the same thing you have. Building units when there is so much land and space available. I think that Springfield Lakes will get kind of ghetto in the medium term particularly in that sort of stock type. Far away is far away that means the rent is cheaper and that means you get tenants who need to pay cheap rent. Forest Lake was pretty shiny Once Upon a Time and don't leave any of your kids toys in the front yard at North Lakes I've heard. Even though there's plenty of professionals out there that paid above the Brisbane average for a huge house because they wanted new. A strange mix of professuonal OOs and poorer tenants.
These distant subdivision developments seem to go through three phases. The first phase is people paying relatively too much for the improvements over the land then those properties end up being rented out and these suburbs become quite high rental concentration suburbs they kind of get a bit downtrodden as the stock not particularly good quality and looks shabby fairly quickly due to cheap fittings
Then finally decades later the city moves out there and they start to gentrify again.
These sorts of places are not a good investment I don't feel unless you pick yourself up a bargain but buying new out that way in these kinds of developments is a dumb idea.

If I was looking for a very cheap unit I would get one walking distance to the train station and Caboolture built in the 1970s pretty much neutrally geared. Nowhere to go but up.

 

Petrie is a different story to Springfield lakes. it's already established and it has a train and it's an express train and it's also a train station Junction
Petrie has a big uni on it's way and you can buy quality sixties and seventies stock on good blocks for quite a good price
Buying one of these off the plan cardboard homes on a small block paying developer margin far away on the south side is a way to see very slow returns.

 

Not everyone wants to live in the cbd why is this so difficult for people to comprehend.

 

In my experience far away suburbs like this consist of in order of quantity
1. People who want to live in the CBD but cannot afford it and commute
2. People who work around the general area (about 35%). Many still commute quite some distance but just not to the CBD.
3. People who for misguided reasons want to live in a large new house with media room (rather than an average or below average closer) at the expense of growth and then later regret it after about 10 years and the place is breaking, and they realise its not worth much and the distance is a PITA. Often these suburbs never become leafy even over time. They are cookie cutter get in get out developments.
4. People who want to get away from relative hustle and bustle but still have a supermarket close.

For number 4. these suburbs are not really where people go to obtain a 'lifestyle'. They are surrounded by farms/commercial/not green but undeveloped land. They are not any sort of tree change or water change. E.g. they are not a Shorncliffe near the water lifestyle or a nice block in Samford valley.

Generally these are not 'desirable' suburbs in the overall scheme of things.

 

So let's say you don't work in the cbd - what is the point of living close to it?

What is so misguided about wanting a big house with a backyard?

 

If you have kids they are likely to (at least eventually) work/ study in the city. But the issue here is not the choice you are making, it is that there are thousands of houses with a big back yard and each year there are thousands more - there is almost no limits on supply.

 

Read some of the old discussions about Kellyville from somersoft 7 years ago.

( now mirrored in this thread )

Don't discount the impact development of new destination suburbs can have, particularly if the new development creates convenience and lifestyle benefits. People like the look and feel of utopia together with a new house/dwelling.

 

I don’t work in the cbd but more often out in the suburbs (the second, third & fourth cbds of Sydney). I live about 5 km from the city as the crow flies. We live close to the city for the activities and ease of access.

My commute is against the traffic, public transport is emptier and bike lanes are busier.

Backyards are a waste of productive agricultural land on the city fringes.

 

I personally I agree in that for me, it doesn't make sense to buy here for IP purposes, too much risk. But for those wanting it for o/o reasons, then I think these masterplanned communities provide great amenity, so perhaps the last thing on their mind is whether there is endless amounts of developable land and no scarcity. They're happy they've got brand new hospitals, libraries, schools, parks and great shopping malls. They can be self sufficient and never leave their own communities.

Ipswich is a big beast and with one stroke you can paint a picture of vast swaths of developable land, and with the other, established suburbs with beautiful houses and character zoning, with barely any developable land available at all. So you have scarcity, desirability and amenity as well.

But referring to the O/P, perhaps this is lining up with the rapid growth of jobs and people in the area (some of the highest population growth in QLD today). Also perhaps it is a reflection of what is to come as far as continuing investment in jobs and infrastructure. I'm sure the original developer had many eyes rolled at him when he started going down the track of creating Springfield all those years ago.

Actually it seems at the moment, land cannot be developed fast enough for those wanting to move there:

HOT PROPERTY: Ipswich land sales hit eight year high

 

No not really - I can list numerous universities with major campuses outside of the cbd. It doesn't make sense to have a big campus in the cbd with the cost of land.

I work in major projects. Occasionally I might need to go to north Sydney to meet a consultant but the smarter companies realise there is no value being in the cbd apart from the **** effect of saying you have a floor at Barangaroo (or some other capital city equivelant). Apart from that there are the same restaurants, pubs and retail at most metropolitan centres without the hefty price tag.

And then of course there is video conferencing.

The CBD becomes less relevant as time goes on. Nice for an occasional visit but apart from that people like to go home to somewhere quieter and less chaotic.

As an investor yields are better further out and yields are more sustainable and less volatile than relying on the unsustainable capital growth of the inner ring.