2022- If Quarantine Restraints Continue?

Whats bad for individuals isnt necessarily bad for the whole economy.

whats good for the individual isnt necessarily good for the economy.

but we are individuals.

 

Reminds me of that cheesy slogan …. ‘We are all in it together’

$2B lost in Syd lockdown

 

I will be watching to see what happens in the UK as they completely open up. I really believe there is more play out. I hope I am wrong but I get this sense that we may not ever go back to normal. Hopefully I am wrong,

 

I believe that we’re on at the beginning of a shift to WFH for many corporate jobs even if the pandemic ends.

Collaboration can be done online. Senseless office meetings out of the window. The fear has always been that workers would abuse this. All that will happen is that only the more productive employees will be retained. Work will be judged on productivity and less so on attendance. Companies have been shown the light.

Governments and councils should recognise the effect on pollution from less commuting. Schools and parents will see the benefits of having well rested children not having to be dropped off early or collected late so parents can get to work on time. Household money saved on day care fees as couples roster their hours to suit themselves.

Police will report lower levels of burglary as fewer homes are vacant during the day.

For those that will still commute, fewer traffic jams. Less traffic. Fewer road deaths?

Politicians need to get a wriggle on to see how they can be supportive and lead Australia forward instead of just trying to replicate the past.

So what does this mean for house prices? Can only be positive especially for suburbia. No need to live close to work. Tax perks for WFH employees. The home becomes more of an investment. Greater demand for these high quality pseudo commercial properties especially those that can partition an office area. Maybe a granny flat overlooking the pool

Inner city apartment prices on the other hand….I feel for you. Nothing going for them whatsoever.

 

I am not worried about UK

Here we are today 8% vaccinated to date. What a shambles.

As I said before with zero tolerance to covid in Oz, I can only see endless lockdowns.

 

Wonder if people just saw huge increases in cases and deaths, and crashing markets for longer, this time last year.

 

Just about everyone got the economy etc predictions wrong. Even government was calling it a recession as in 2020 we did have two consecutive months where GDP went south

Lets not kid ourselves though this is a Government driven boom. They can easily turn the tap off.

 

'can', 'will', 'if', 'when', 'why', 'won't'........

 

Why would they turn off the tap?
It is a sure way for your political suicide - "Next election lost" headline.
News headline "Politician strangle the livelihood of Australia" Coming soon if they don't get their acts together.
Funny how incompetent Australian politician are. While we stick our nose in other countries business. The Fuss Duff !

 

Inflation!
If you keep the tap on, retirees and smart savers get absolutely ruined in the coming years. Brain drain will increase, and sentiment will change.

 

Small problem and a good problem.
You do know how economy works right?



Our inflation haven't been so great.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2017/mar/2.html

 

hmm not sure what you mean by a good problem. You think hyperinflation is good? normal inflation is necessary, but with unlimited QE comes high inflation

 

thats what the textbooks tell us. Reality seems to be more complicated.

 

We are in a weird economic environment, lots of factors I agree. Just answering the question why governments would want to turn off the tap. Yellen (ex-fed) agrees!

 

Not really in real terms. Technological advances are actually deflationary. Says I typing into a supercomputer that fits into my hand that can be had for $1000

 

Plenty of people that can't work remotely due to the nature of their work. Still not convinced of full scale/fully fledged work from home for most people.

Over time I have come to realise, I think the Government like the Centralisation/Concentration of large cities/CBD's as places of work.
Cheaper/simpler to plan & provide services. Plus the Constant increase in wealth.

In Australia we haven't been big proponents at a Government level to decentralise & create more cities, so no reason to think that changes.

 

Can be had for $100 + $900 for the picture of half eaten fruit on the back

 

Re what is driving markets up...

Personally I don't care what is driving prices up. So long as I can capitalize on it and control my risk.

 

Be interesting to see whether these lockdowns in Syd/Melb will impact on property markets.
Melb in 5th lockdown

Could this be impetus?? In particular Melb, going to crucify small business. I was in Melb prior to recent lockdown, noticed many empty shops.

Sadly, We don’t hear about this

 

Yes I bet hopelessness/fatigue has definitely set in for Melbourne retail owners. A friend of mine is closing shop in the city permanently after more than 20 years in business because of covid.