2020 - Will APRA be forced to intervene in the Melbourne and Sydney Property Bubbles?

"Everyone who doesn't agree with me is a troll" - Property Chat/Social Justice Warriors.

About as low resolution of position as you can possibly bring to the table.

 

What do I do? I cant control what regulators and govt's do, so I aim to invest according to what im comfortable with and aim to increase my knowledge enough to be able to be flexible if things do get tough. its all anyone can do. One thing I do know is disagreeing and having opinions on these things certainly wont increase my wealth. So its either do nothing, or do something for me.

At the same time, despite the economic headwinds or bad news, I strongly believe in the fundamentals of property as a large portion of Australia does. I Don't think for a second that everyone is buying and speculating that things are going to double, the large majority are just home owners. So all though we will have times of slow economy, tight credit, high debt, high supply, low demand, it eventually will even it self out and tip the other way if your timeline is long enough.

Il try track down the data, I actually heard it through a podcast via Simon pressley, looking at LGA council data and core logic I believe, Funnily enough in times of turmoil and crisis, it was always Brisbane among others that done the best. Sydney and Melbourne not so much. So I guess there's no one answer and no one knows what will happen, but if you are sophisticated enough you can pick the opportunities in the right markets at the right times and still do very well. Which is why im here, to increase wealth for the future and family.

 

Well said!
I haven't been here for a while so I am willing to give new members the benefit of the doubt.

As a general troll detection guide, here are the top 3 signs that I usually look for:

1. Unwilling to disclose their investment position, where and what they invested in. Even if they disclosed it, most often they are inconsistent or vague or both.

2. Might sound intelligent, engaging and well informed at first with their clever words and debating skill, but if you read enough of their posts, you will come to aware that there's very little substance in them, their views are often been repeated like a broken record even when they are been proven wrong on many occasions.

3. Often generalised the property market as a whole along the line "The Australian property market is over priced", "Depts are at record high". This often the bi product of the main stream media where they get their views without proper research and on ground experience. A more experienced and genuine member would be more specific in their bear and bull views in terms of regions, cities and even market within market. It's possible that someone new to come up with those views, but they often learn quick and adapt, unlike trolls.

 

I agree with this however I do try and understand their position as it may or may not teach me something, if not I can disregard it and im no worse off, at worst its challenged my thinking and made me mentally stress test my own situation. In most cases it doesn't and I continue to invest and continue to try and build wealth.

 

Why not take the time to address these faux intelligent points? Instead of being an enraged villager? I can post them again if you like. Or you can keep pontificating on your inability to answer them. A weird strategy I suppose, but your call.

 

Whoever claimed it was a method of wealth increasing? But exposing your ideas to people who might disagree with you seems to be the perfect way to challenge your positions and potentially alter course.

However, it's clear that some people do not like hearing anything to the contrary as I presume their exposure to the market you are criticizing causes a large amount of discomfort.

 

Of course, you are challenging people's livelihood or idea's. its expected.

by all means I hear your arguments and opposing view, I just don't think they will come to fruition or have a big effect in the long term. But again, that is my opinion based on the research I have done, and I will have to live with that if things head south.

 

Your patience are admirable. I am afraid that you might be wasting your time. He will eventually worn you out by picking pieces here and there without any attempt to understand your position and overall context. He is here for a debate and not learning. Good luck.

 

My position is that they will need to come to fruition, I fear the can is getting to big to kick.

Inequality tops Torsten Slok’s 20 risks to markets in 2020 – Newsroom

According to Deutsche Bank, our economy is so exposed to property market, they consider it to be a risk to global markets on the same list as Brexit and the Trade War.

I suppose the biggest weakness in my position is MMT and how unconventionality we try to battle this next downturn.

 

Read the thread title. Ask yourself, is this a question that has a defined answer. If the answer is no, then people might often debate their positions and learn from opposing views.

 

The RBA lowered rates after many months of it sitting on 1.5% and even hinting at the start that they will be taking the rates up and not down. They came to the sobering fact that they were very wrong only this year.

I do know what would have happened otherwise because it has already happened and thats why they have lowered the rate and are considering further cuts.

Two years ago, we had a bunch of people thinking that house prices are going to continue to decline and interest rates are going to be at or above 6% around this time.

I told them then that interest rates should have sat at or under 0% back then, money should have been a bit easier to borrow and house prices should not have come down. I was probably the only one saying it.

2 years later they have realized the joke was on them.

If RBA does not take interest rates closer to 0% and APRA and consequently the banks make borrowing easier, the recession wont be the case, Australia will go into depression and its not a matter of if its a matter of when.

 

Sydney house prices rise $77,000 in June quarter: report

 

So, 4 years later.......

If you had been in in a coma for the last couple of years and woke up now, you would never have guessed what happened in the time you were away......

 

Sydney almost surpassed the 2022 peak??

 

uff this thread aged well! one of the best here from memory.

 

Just another permabear that has disappeared not to be seen again when the RE market doesn’t follow their narrative.

 

Well not in real terms, today's Aussie is worth maybe 70c from 2019

 

Whats happened to debt in real terms?

 

real estate leverage is best hedge against inflation. sicne ur debt loosing value, as @Trainee said as well.

if anything, our weak dollar makes it expensive to travel overseas, but for those that dont leave, its much of a muchness.