ASX Shares 10 bagger

It could keep heading down, who knows? Most found it hard to believe it would ever get below $2 again and here we are..

The beauty of this is being able to lower your average. I’m actually hoping we dip below $1 as I could increase my holdings by another 25% if that happens.

No use dwelling on getting the timing wrong, it could have easily been the other way. Usually you hear stories of coulda, woulda, shoulda bought APT & this and that but missed it.

One way to mitigate that is do your research, buy for the long term, & gain the conviction to hold. If the company is successful based on the fundamentals you first bought it for, than likely this decline will mean very little.

 

There is also a "fuel gauge" that can be monitored as part of research. It's difficult to pin a date on when the fuel tank will run empty as the rate of consumption keeps ebbing and flowing with the traffic (liquidity). When the traffic is moving faster there is greater consumption of fuel (due to greater market liquidity or news flow). When the traffic is moving slower there is less consumption.

We had readings on the fuel levels on the following dates:

• 29 November 2021
• 26 August 2021 (reading taken about 2 weeks earlier)
  
• 5 May 2021 (approximate reading only)
• 26 April 2021
• 15 March 2021
• 30 November 2020 (approximate reading only)
• 28 October 2020

You can go back and review the fuel levels at the time.

In the meantime can monitor the fuel consumption with an auxiliary fuel gauge that measures the rate that the tank is emptying (broker data) but this gauge doesn't give a reading of fuel tank level (so you have to manually adjust from last reading to estimate fuel level).

We should get another reading of the fuel level on or approx 25 August 2022 (although this will be a reading taken about 2 weeks earlier).

As in property when supply diminishes generally there is a positive movement in price (with the qualifier that investors need to understand for themselves their reasons for investing).

 

Anybody else invested in PAB? I really like what they’re working on.

Also, would’ve thought PTX’s 4th complete remission on relapsed and refractory AML would’ve had more of a materially positive impact on the share price. I’m accumulating.

 

The things you need to try and determine when evaluating combination trials run by biotechs:

• what is the background efficacy (either CR or PR rate, or ORR = CR + PR) of each of the agents in the trial when those agents are each used as a single agent (i.e. agent is used as a monotherapy). This can take quite a bit of research and the information can be hard to find. You also need to ensure that patient populations are similar for a comparison to be valid.
• is the response rate for the combination likely to be better than the response rate of each of the single agents (the aim is for the combination to have a synergistic effect - i.e. produce a stronger response rate than either of the two agents individually without significantly increasing adverse events)
• what is the full history of the two agents in the combination trial (go back as far as possible for a complete understanding of context). i.e. where drug was acquired from (and when), details/results of prior trials, prior preclinical data and so on.

More generally:

• How long will it take for the trial to complete recruitment and complete the efficacy stage (this is important since data can only be analysed for primary and secondary outcome measures after the last patient has been recruited)
  • you can look at how long recruitment has taken for earlier trials
  • if trials are open-label then the investigators and doctors pursuing putting patients into the trial will have insights into how the drug is performing in earlier patients (if the drug performs well then recruitment will speed up)
  • in the AML space there are now large numbers of trials being run and hence significant competition for patients (and remember that clinical trials are competing for patients with the existing approved treatments).
    • For many doctors it is just easier to put patients onto an approved treatment (many are reluctant to put patients into trials without strong data or alternatively they don't know the trials are being run).
  • You need to allow time for the last patient to be able to a achieve either a CR or PR. Sometimes a timeframe is given for the endpoint (interpret as time after last patient is recruited), however even after the last patient has passed the endpoint timeframe post-dosing, the lag for completion of data analysis and reporting of results can take months.
• Drugs that may have a failure history as a monotherapy are less likely to have a strong value commercially (much less interest from pharma). That said I think there may be commercial value if there is synergistic performance in a patient population where a pharma can achieve a market share.

 

Just saw on my Watch List RAC got a Trading Halt.

@Codie @wombat777 care to speculate? Positive for the SP?

 

Thanks Wombat

 

Where’s my pal @yannpiot

What’s happening with ILA today…does the Buy/ Sell tell a story?

It’s by far my biggest loser @ $2,200 in the red!

 

Those are rookie numbers!

 

Indeed. I pick good stocks

 

If the news is positive, I am more interested in there being stronger volumes for the annoying seller to offload their shares faster.

i.e. whilst I would be ecstatic with a nice boost in the SP it is stronger volumes I am more interested in.

The seller seems to be selling less as a proportion of daily volume with the SP below $2.00. If the price moves up he might go back to selling at ratio of 15% of daily volume ( which will then mean shares are offloaded faster ).

Of course if the news is negative we might get strong volumes too, lol.

Given the results of the first Israel trial in 2020 and the relatively fast completion of the dose escalation phase for this second Israel trial ( completed in just 9.5 months ), I am leaning on the results being positive.

 

I’ve just read something on another forum posted by Mason who I think was on here before. He seems in it to the end, which I like.

Credit Mason14:

“I don't think the data generated will be very attractive to pharma, and I don't think I would be making any investment decisions based on it. This relates specifically to the dose escalation phase and even the expansion...

What I really want to see from a trial is the following:
- Companion diagnostic developed by RAC used to effectively screen participants and select those most likely to respond
- A selection of patients with solid tumors (as opposed to blood tumors) (this is the major limitation I have found with the historic data)
- Peripheral IV formulation of Zantrene developed by RAC (I think the oral formulation is a little while off yet) used either as a single agent and/or in combination with another drug
- Patient responses to the drug are logged, and there are clear links to the companion diagnostic data

This kind of trial demonstrates the full sweep of IP that RAC owns“

He seems very knowledgeable on RAC and seems to know what Big Pharma want to see.

 

and that in a nutshell is the basis of RAC’s plan over the next 24-36 months ( generate the data from proof of concept clinical trials to demonstrate value to big pharma ). That’s the timeframe RAC have set, however that doesn’t stop offers being made early.

RAC management can control when they decide to start engaging with big pharma but they can’t control when Big Pharma may decide to initiate an offer.

The Israel trial results to be reported are partly related to the first Israel trial ( same investigator ) but as combination ( first Israel trial was monotherspy ). RAC are leveraging it to provide an early opportunity to analyse in-patient FTO data so we may get some results for FTO ( or we may have to wait for the Phase 2 efficacy stage ).

The trials to be run at sites in Australia and eventually US / Europe will have much more of an FTO focus. This is where the real value to a big pharma will be able to be demonstrated ( in terms of drivers for assumptions pharma can use in NPV models ). In parallel there is cardio protection as it would be an add on to traditional chemo still used for many cancers ( revenue potential for pharma is also very large ).

 

Anybody joining the class actions against CBA and Mesoblast?

 

@David_SYD Wombat has covered everything so won’t add much more except I’m leaning towards positive in the grand scheme of things, that is moving to a P2. I’m hopeful we have some FTO data as RAC have all ready mentioned they will be observing it, whilst not critical for the trial, this could be the first in Human FTO data… the next day or 2 will tell.

On PTX… I liked what they were doing initially, until I went all the way back to 2010.. They are essentially repurposing a drug that didn’t have a favourable outcome. Data suggests they have made the right “tweaks” however doesn’t suit my risk profile, upside doesn’t outweigh the risks anymore. It did at 4c.

PAB is interesting, I prefer ATX.. Tiny market cap at $22m
Strong data in AMP945 so far, 27% improvement over SOC
Orphan drug designation from FDA
Ethics received for a P2 in Aus, first patient dosed due any day now - pancreatic (55k incidence in the US alone)
Robert peach is on the board (co-founded a company that was bought out by Celgene for $7.8b and has held senior exec and scientific roles at biogen and Bristol Myers Squibb)


Upcoming trial is using it in combination with Abraxane (Celgene) & gemcitabine (Lilly) which Lilly.. $200b+ MC last time I looked.
Bristol Myers squib paid $74b for celgene..

At this stage, I can’t fault it.

 

RAC Ann.

1 Complete Response
2 Partial Response
2 No Response
1 death from infection

Positive, Negative, Indifferent?

Trial moves to Ph2 is what I read from the announcement?

 

Read the whole announcement carefully including the Q&A.

The key is that the patients had on average failed 4 lines of prior chemotherapy (with other AML treatments). So they had standard first line chemotherapy and failed that (relapsed) and then on average failed a further 3 additional attempts to eliminate their cancer (in order to prepare them for bone marrow transplant). The more times a patient relapses, the lower the chance they will respond to therapy.

So the patients in the trial were very, very sick (failed a median 4 lines of prior therapy). They were then treated with a combination therapy including Bisantrene and 50% of the patients responded to treatment in a way that enabled them to be then bridged to transplant. The underlying aim is to use chemo to clear the patient of detectable/measurable cancer and then conduct a bone marrow transplant.

Given the results seen in Phase 1 my expectation is that recruitment of the patients for the Phase 2 part of this study will be faster and those patients will be in better condition (failed only 2 or 3 prior lines of treatment). i.e. doctors encouraged by the results seen in very difficult to treat patients. So I anticipate we will see better results in Phase 2 due to a patient population that will be in better condition.

 

Hi Datto

I did my arse on Mesoblast and I havent been able to recover unfortunately. What is this class action and who is leading it ?
Cheers

 

What was the craic with Mesoblast? A pump and dump?

 

Google mesoblast class action. One of the big law firms is running it and someone else is funding it. Check Omniway.

There are specific dates that you must have bought the shares. It’s got something to do with vague announcements from the company or something like that.

Apparently even if you lose the case it won’t cost you. If you win they take a slice of the winnings. You can register and sign up online.