ASX Shares 10 bagger

This is why rules of thumb exist. Only invest what you can afford to lose and maintain a diversified portfolio.

 

You're only down if you sell. Im certain this is not the first correction many here have lived through. Stop looking at the commbank app, make a cup of tea, go hug your dog, she'll be right mate!

 

Any RAC holders still here?
I haven't sold anything yet because there hasn't been any bad news, but it sure is hard to watch it plummet.
Surely it can't all be Bill's sell down..

 

I came across this infographic relevant to this 10-bagger thread:

 

Still here and holding even though I'm deep in the red. As you said, very much down despite only good news.

 

I am also deep in red. Looks like it's going to hit 1.50$ mark anytime soon as I don't see any support. Even if we're going to have a very good news, it may recover 10-20% up that doesn't mean it will recover all lost. All haters are having party at HC. I guess Codie and Wombat are still holding like many other LT holders.

@Codie, What's your take on this?

 

I’ve just seen RAC touched $1.615 today. I can’t see any announcements and just browsed HotCopper, had to wade through a lot of nonsense from both haters and lovers but can’t see any well supported claims for this decline?

Is there a large holder selling out?

Has any information been leaked from a trial?

 

About 10.3% of net sell volume last week was via openmarkets (this is one of the discount brokers).

About 4.5% of net sell volume last week was Shaws. Usually BG makes up 10-15% of net sales.

About 19.5% of net buy volume last week was buyers via commsec. i.e. net buying of shares by commsec buyers last week more than offsetting the two biggest net sellers above.

Shaws (i.e. BG) was only about 7.7% of sales on Monday 16th. As above usually this is 10-15% ballpark.

Won't be able to access broker data for today until next week.

BG left the company in October 2020 so is not an insider.

 

1) can’t see any well supported claims for this decline? Is there a large holder selling out?

Many factors for the decline, but fundamentally RAC is only getting better. In part, there may be a few impatient holders who are not willing to wait a couple years and are exiting early.

Other than fundamentals-related, biotech index (NBI) is down big time, RAC has by and large followed the trend. Then, there is volume that is very tight, so it takes just a handful of sellers to tank the price. Then, refer to Wombat's post above, there is an ex-Director taking profits. It may take a few more months until he runs out of shares.

2) Has any information been leaked from a trial?

No. So far all results from the trials have been positive. No leak. RAC Management as bullish as ever. As for the large seller, he is no longer an insider and not in contact with BOD, so wouldn't know.

My take on all this is that it is a great time to accumulate. I've personally ran out of funds so unfortunately just have to wait on the sidelines. The big question is when can we expect a reversal of SP? I feel like we'll be in a better position than now by end of the year (clinical progress, seller runs out of shares, bear market hopefully will be over).

 

Has anyone here been previously invested in a Biotech that has literally fizzled out to nothing?

Do you think it will continue to decline until there’s a meaningful announcement?

 

Daniel T @RaC has been quite active in the RAC fb group if anyones keen…

 

He also posts on bullseye forum regularly

 

After first buying around 24 months ago, I’m now currently in the red as have been buying up as high as 3.25.

My average is 1.91

I take solace in the fact that RAC isn’t the worst performer and has actually been pretty inline with the entire Biotech sector.

I’ve also seen broker Data & T20 data and all though Yes shaws are a small % of the sells, there’s another Major holder washing shares from one account to another, responsible for a large amount of the buy/sell in terms of %

However the difference they are also buying in another account, shaws are not. Therefore BG’s selling is adding supply, the other is just manipulating it.

Once this supply dries up, I’m hopeful the bleeding stops. RAC management are looking at a plan to soak up those shares as we speak.

Personally, I’m not selling. I will be looking to add more if it heads under 1.50, I’m also not too concerned about the short term SP. only concern would be a low takeover bid, however The longs who aren’t selling give me confidence we might all decline it in that case. RAC have enough cash to ride it out IMO

 

RAC holder, topped up twice to try and hedge losses but.....now just have to wait (and hope!)

 

About less the 10 over 30 years some I still hold ..
Only my simple opinion but they all follow the same pattern unfortunately -- the long holding period when they fall below 0-050 cents then the media driven- then a normally rapid rise then stalls then charts back sometimes to where it started..
I walked away from RAC a while back at around $3-00 and the price went into the very high or just below $4-00 after that exit ..
I do pity anyone that were purchasing at very high numbers in this site above $ 3-75 as the rumours were the price would break $5-00 as charts don't lie..

 

I saw charts showing $14, even $20 I think for 2021. Madness.

I’ve said before, I feel RAC was pumped and there will be members who bought in at the highs and will be feeling some pain at the moment. It would be a tough lesson if you’ve put up a lot of money.

 

You can only look at it one way..
If a person does nothing -nothing will happen ..
If a person does something something will happen ..
The worst-case that can happen is you end up with nothing which is what one started with..

 

If only it worked like that.

If a person does something with $100k and ends up with nothing, they have gone backwards by $100k. You can do a lot with $100k

 

The decline is no different (actually better) than a lot of other Biotechs on the ASX.

IMU, PTX, ATX, the list goes on.

Some very large funds have poured millions into IMU recently just before the decline.

It’s easy to say you got it right. In hindsight. You can always make a chart to suit the narrative in hindsight as well.

At the end of the day, Drug development is a huge cost centre/risk, certainly not for everyone.

I’m confident it’s a short term issue.

 

Thank you Codie, Much appreciated your insight. I am also in the red but holding it. I guess It's already touched the bottom but it's now waiting for a news, Based on the news it can go up or down. Lets hope for the best!