The next move in rates (whenever it comes) 2024 edition

yep agree.

housing should always be buy when and what you can afford based on a thought-out risk assessment.

trying to accurately predict the housing market is like trying get a hole in one. You might get close but VERY unlikely to nail it.

 

Retail is a different - more structual issue. Households today dedicate much more money to housing and hence less to retail.

Australia's house prices have always been roughly three times income - along with most of the world. So your Grand Parents paid roughly 3x income and your Great Grand parents 3x income.

In 2000, evidently the same year negative gearing was introduced, house prices started to rise much faster than ones wages.

Domian say's house prices in Adelaide will surge to 1 Million by December. That means house prices are now about 12 to 20 times income.

We had a large run up in home prices during Covid and hence a lot of retail will now need to close.

 

oh I 100% agree with that.

I doubt government will ever do what's required to fix it.

 

LoL I'm many people...at the same time. And we've never been seen in the same room.

I did look him up and seem we been going along similar lines in 22/23.
One of the very few real economists because he stick to his concepts and doesn't need to change them.

And this is the time where we start seeing the superlatives by "experts" in the media
"Shock" is the preferred word atm

 

Australia currently has inflation running at 3.6% and interest rates at 4.35%, which is barely positive. The RBA's own modelling suggests that they should be at 5%, the IMF has advised that they are raised, and most of our peers are over 5%.

I wouldn't be surprised if @Piston_Broke, sorry, Warren Hogan has made the correct call.

 

Rate Cuts CANCELLED

 

the higher it goes the faster it falls! glad i locked the survey so let see the results! INTERESTING!

 

Come April monthly CPI print the market will flip again and the bipolar media will state *shock* *noone could have predicted this* despite a perfectly predictable base effect explaining a very low 3s April print.

Saying "things are going as planned" is pretty boring though isn't it...

*shrug*

 

Gone come April print CPI. The US are still pricing a cut before year end despite recent bipolar inflation data and media circus, there is no chance Australia is hiking as the US are cutting... Reverse repo draining in the next few months will be interesting...

That said - I fully expect the data to look as if inflationary pressures are returning, to at the last minute (close to year end) head suddenly and significantly in reverse - inflation risk will be a thing of the past, it's just a matter of how significant will cuts need to be to save the economy.

 

When will April cpi data be released?

 

can u imagine.... Donald Trump to set interest rates himself under secret US presidential plan

 

Interest rates: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike cash rate to 5.1pc, says top forecaster Judo Bank economist Warren Hogan.

Australia’s inflation: The RBA could raise rates again

Interesting..

 

I picture it would look something like Zimbabwe circa 2008.

 

A lot of key data will be released after the meeting.





The only major release before the meeting -

 

I'm a hundred trillionaire!

 

Interesting so what data will rba use in the May meeting when deciding to hold, or raise rates?

 

The vibe.

 

it will be a hold untill majority of the fixed term rates expire (around july). so if there is a move it would be aug or sept. but if overall trend keeps going down they would just hold