Crypto Bitcoin and Fiat

I share historical data - I'll let others pretend to predict prices.

Bitcoin has had a decade of "extreme regulatory risk". It's been predicted to die over a hundred times. Somehow it has managed to survive. Still a very interesting experiment that continues to defy expectations.

 

Bitcoin halving in 24hrs and I am putting out some predictions for fun purposes. Not financial advice.
Base case 3.5x from $60k x 3.5 = $210k (if reached in 2024)
Bull case 7.5x from $60k x 7.5 = $450k (if reached late 2025)
Super bull case Gold market cap reached and bitcoin will be valued at $620k. (If continues and reached mid 2026).
Super bear case - The whole rally was a short squeeze (since ETF approval) & top is already in and we front ran the whole post halving rally . Thanks market makers!

 

Great video and a must watch.

Spoiler alert bitcoin price target $230k by September 2024.

 

This is very true, for the majority of tokens especially those that are considered "securities".

Not true for BTC though. Ever since spot ETFs have been approved, BTC has now started working it's way into the lives of the decision makers.

If there's any doubt consider that in the history of ALL ETFs ever launched in the US, the BTC ETFs have been the most successful launch in history in terms of the speed of inflows.

Blackrock's IBIT even made it into the top 5 of all ETFs based on yearly inflows, that includes the S&P 500 ETFs.

To put it simply, BTC vs the regulators is a war that has already been won.

 

Bitcoin halving successfully completed.

 

Huge fees paid in the halving block.
One guy paid 4 BTC for the vanity claim of getting their transaction in the halving block, wonder if it's related to one of the ordinals or rare sats where they become worth more based on the type of block they're in.

 

Impressive.

Source: https://x.com/GummoXXX/status/1781415229370626406



That’s almost US$5 billion…

 

I think it’s bs. Anyone with that kind of money would not want attention and imagine the CGT !

 

Quick question please.
Hubby has some bitcoin on an exchange Cointree (I think). Hoping to move it offline.
I have a Tangem hardware wallet where my BTC is stored. If I transfer hubby’s BTC to this wallet will it trigger a capital gains event? Hoping to avoid having another wallet.
If we need to sell his BTC will transfer back to the exchange under his name.
Does he need his own wallet?
Thank you in advance!

 

If what he has online is denominated in BTC, then withdrawing BTC from that exchange to a hardware wallet won't trigger CGT. It's not a sale at all, just moving the same asset to a different address.

A bit harder to answer the second question, as mixing his coins in with yours might mess with FIFO rules (not sure). I'll wait for someone else's reply on that one...

 

He doesn’t need a new wallet as long as you can calculate the amounts manually. But best to get separate wallet as you can then use various software to calculate CGT by the wallet public address.
On a separate note why not using ledger or trezor? From what I understand the wallet you are using don’t give you the seed phrase.

 

He only has 0.27 of a BTC and has not traded or bought any since 2017.
The new Tangem now has 3 cards and option to generate a 12 word seed. So yes have a seed in case I lose all 3 cards

 

Rumour : Bitcoin post halving parabolic move is coming!

 

Source: Bitcoin Sold $8K Last Halving, Soared 721% After: Will History Repeat? - Coin Edition

 

In October. Yes, we know

 

Even though bad news for inflation in Aus, US rates market started coming down last night. DXY coming down, S&P retracement is recovering.

Also Grayscale's new low-fee product apparently will be seeded by a portion of the GBTC holdings, I suspect the investors may have an option to move without triggering a tax event. This seems to have stemmed the outflow from GBTC to lower levels.
Grayscale’s Mini Bitcoin ETF ‘cheap’ fees are ‘hypothetical’ — analysts


Getting cautiously bullish again BTC, changed positioning a bit more bullish.
Not putting cash back in though, when I convert my crypto holdings to AUD it's still massive compared to previous cycles so that's s enough risk for me.

 

Anyone wanted to sell before “halving crash “ done so already during March and early/mid April. I think we will see $100k bitcoin in third week of June. I have not sold any bitcoins and no plans to sell at least until mid 2025. Taking big risks for big returns. Not a financial advice.

 

We are going into the banana zone in few weeks time. Not financial advice.

 

This is the most boring part of crypto. Best to switch off looking at portfolios, crypto prices, X and just come back on October. Most people generally gets shaken out here multi month chop zone.
If you must check your bitcoin portfolio best to change view display currency to bitcoin. So you see no changes. 1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin.

 

Hard to switch off as I am waiting for dips to buy more!