VIC >400k IP with 600m land, timing the market

First time poster, long time lurker planning a third IP at a 300-400k buy-in in outer urban, close metro areas.

Could I get your views on a location? I'm Melburnian but happy to go borderless. I'm considering areas with 600m2+ land preferably in commuting distance to a state capital, or in a major regional hub:
- Melton, Victoria
- Seymour or a comparable large town on the M80, VIC
- Bunbury, WA
- Mandurah, WA
- Elizabeth area, SA

My timeframe is in 9-18 months from now as I need time to build more savings and get regular PAYG for refinancing. The available equity from my current properties is above 200k - enough for a larger purchase, but I'm limited by the DTI. If properties under 400k are a bad buy, I could shift to teaming up with a friend/family member for a bigger purchase.

My strategy
- I've done well out of a property in the Logan area getting a 200% return on equity invested within three years of purchase. However, the QLD and regional NSW markets look like they're nearing the top of the clock, and a buy-in of 500-600k is hard for me right now.
- I want to repeat the trick - time a $300k purchase in an area that hasn't been moving too much recently, and get a $100k+ uplift in the next 2-3 years, then redevelop / add value / exit within 5-10 years, taking a medium term outlook as none of these areas are ever going to top the middle suburbs.
- Reasons for this are: I'm impatient, and I've already got a conventionally safe investment in an inner-city area, although it doesn't seem to have the scope to outperform in the short-medium team. Also, I'm aware of the time in the market mantra, but it doesn't hurt to have a strategy right? I'd be happy to hold 10 years+ as these choices are all likely to be positively geared.

Observations
- I'm seeing that many properties in the large house Melbourne metro markets are selling at pre-covid prices - could it have to do with construction woes? The reason I'm going for Melton is mainly affordability, also Werribee is well beyond 400k now.
- I'm also considering places like Seymour, being 1-2 hours away, could be future commuter hubs similar to Bowral or Picton for Sydney.
- Otherwise, I'm considering areas like Bunbury / Mandurah in WA as it hasn't had the price increases like Armadale the past 2 years and I'm considering they're also ripe for a jump (I considered buying in Gosnells / Armadale 18 months ago but decided to minimise risk, slightly kicking myself).
- Also, I've put in Elizabeth SA, I'm wondering if any of the folks here think that's primed for a Logan 2021 or Armadale 2023 kind of jump.
- Finally, I know that folks like Michael Yardney have been harping on about the scarcity of inner-city small block units for years. Would I get a nice uplift from say, a 400k 2b1b double brick walkup 10-15km from Melbourne CBD? Or the same thing 5km from Brisbane CBD? Is it a coin toss between this and a house 40km out? Or do the fundamentals of house on a big block always win? Noting my timeframe is a big uplift in the next five years.

A little thank you: I'm super appreciative of the frank advice on this forum, it's a great complement to the books and podcasts and I'm wealthier because of it. Thanks guys!

 

quick note that you have a clear recency bias. what we saw in 21-23 will not be repeated, IMHO.

i would focus on ppor - do u have one? 200k in equity isnt much so i would focus on patience and accumulation, specially if you have alredy IPs. also Elizabeth went up quite a bit in current boom and still climbing. but now fairly priced in my mind

 

Thanks Igor, yes I already have a ppor in inner Melbourne.

If you were me, where would you accumulate then? And is it worth accumulating at the 400k mark or would you be more patient and buy later at 600k+?

 

patience. keep $ in offset its a guranteed 6% tax free. or debt recycle. getting a better asett at 600k would accelerate your wealth later on