Crypto Bitcoin and Fiat

No, self-custody is totally acceptable. You can even buy bars of gold, as long as you store them securely and have your supply audited yearly.

Hardware Wallets

Also the ETF is mentioned, EBTC in Australia. Its management fee is 1.5% which is quite high. But it's useful because it's accessible quickly if you need to buy/sell some without having to wait for bank transfers etc. The US ETFs are cheaper, but you have forex costs.

 

I have bitcoins in my smsf. I use Esuper fund and they recommend self custody with hardware wallet. I think everyone should have at least 5% super in bitcoin as hedge against currency debasement. ETF is easy way to get it. Not a financial advice.

 

Sure, but I meant not being able to self-custody (air-gapped cold storage) would put me off. Can only do that with direct investment in real bitcoins.

 

with the ETFs can go 100% on bitcoin through SMSF. Actually more if get a margin loan on SMSF.
I have read many people doing this who are real bitcoin 'maxis'. Those who think its still extremely early for BTC.

I am not proposing to do this. But can see the appeal to a degree. BTC not going to go away and its mainstreaming more and more. But still feels early.

[I dont have an SMSF (but am thinking about doing one, just made a post about that as I wonder why more people dont go SMSF to get leverage rather than just compounding?? If i do get a SMSF will definitely buy some BTC in it]

 

Can you buy property through this type of online smsf? Is that all you need? Or also need accountant to set something up?

 

Yes you can buy property and no you don’t need accountant. They are one of the biggest mob in smsf. They also have links with Liberty finance so you can apply directly through their portal and they do setup everything ( unlike many accountants make errors setting up bare trusts). Also they setup smsf for you for free/ saving about $1k. Also you can have 100% spot bitcoins on your super via self custody.

 

You don’t have to become everything you know. But you should know everything you can become - Jim Rohn

Many people achieves 20-30% of their potential not because they aren’t capable but rather they don’t know.

 

Fair enough, but as a real bitcoin maxi, I would disagree that those people are real bitcoin maxis.

For me, being a maxi has nothing to do with the price of bitcoin whatsoever, and everything to do with having ultimate uncensorable unfreezable unseizable control of your money.

The increasing prices (wrt fiat) are just a side bonus.

 

A good dip today at $96.5k now. I already bought some previously at $97.5k aud so waiting for it to dip further before I add more. Every time I think my bags are packed I keep adding more! Anyone else buy today or are you waiting for further dips?
Any predictions on how low it can go pre and post halving please?

 

I'm bearish short term based on US rates the last few weeks. They might be making a turn though, bonds fell a little last night. Watching DXY is the easiest way, seems BTC is back to correlating with the stock market again too.

Oil fell too though which is good for inflation so that's some hopium

 

I have a good size limit buy order at $58k. If we go lower then will buy with size at $55k and $52k. At which point I will be almost out of dry powder. Let’s see. Btw short term bearish but I believe we will 2x minimum(and I think I am bearish on my 2x prediction).

 

I have a limit order at $58.5k will keep DCA down by largish amount if it drops further. Building up a good holding of BTC now! Hopefully hubby doesn’t freak out too much as our offset account is going down!

 

I think we will see SPX closing green today and tomorrow to punish the late shorts, give a little hope and another leg down before taking off. $BTC in my opinion will do the same a bit up hooping $60k will hold support then a liquidation below $58k. People will get scared and sell then the hated halving rally to $92k. lol
I hope to catch at least $58k dip if market allows.

 

I've taken some more profit lately, though it's been really hard to do given I'm really involved with ETH and looking at the market every day. That causes a conditioning that makes you think this months price is what the coin is worth. Before February BTC was below $50k, we've only been up here for 2 months yet it's easy to feel BTC should support that level because it feels like it's been there a long time. Same with Solana, once it passed $200 we thought that's where it should stay but it had no issues sliding to $130.

I've found it helpful to look back at what I put in, and the zoomed out chart of what the profit range looks like. Thanks to DEFI, airdrops and trading the returns have been better than just the price range, but I don't really want to give all that back if the broader markets decide it's time for a correction. I still have enough invested to benefit from a move up, but took enough out the last few weeks to have made the trade worth it.

If there's an opportunity, I'll buy more lower. Otherwise I'll ride the post-halving gains with what I have left, no matter how far away that is.

 

Bitcoin Halving Price History

1. First Halving - November 28, 2012
• Pre-Halving Price: ~$12
• Post-Halving Price (Approx. 1 year after): ~$1,100
2. Second Halving - July 9, 2016
• Pre-Halving Price: ~$650
• Post-Halving Price (Approx. 1 year after): ~$2,500 in July 2017, peaking at ~$20,000 in December 2017
3. Third Halving - May 11, 2020
• Pre-Halving Price: ~$8,787
• Post-Halving Price (Approx. 1 year after): Peaked at ~$64,000 in April 2021

 

Good job. DCA when selling is just as sound a strategy as DCA when buying. (Keeps a good balance between mad profits and sanity/risk).

 

I am getting the best fit with a linear trendline (5y forecast, r squared .58)



Exponential fit looks a bit ridiculous ($1M USD by 2029 lol).



Will be fun to look back on this in years to come.

 

Please give us your price predictions for bitcoin. On a separate note everyone (including myself) placing huge buy orders at around $52k to $58k. What is likely to happen? lol market makers will not allow people to make easy money. They may push prices higher to force people into fomo and buy into higher prices.

 

If we zoom out and compare with all asset classes, what is the bullish argument for BTC over a say a 10y+ horizon?

I've always assumed that the regulatory risk was quite extreme (in both what your home country government allows, but equally in what governments around the world allow, thus affecting the demand side for BTC). If a nation of people get wise to their government's economic/fiscal management/mismanagement, and decide to de-risk against this by (for example) parking funds in BTC or USDT or similar - wouldn't the government response be to regulate all the value out of that option for their people?

Happy to be linked to other resources, but not looking to go too deep.

 

From my perspective, the government 'allows' bitcoin in the same way that it 'allows' the sun to rise in the east.

In my opinion, ultimately there will be demand for bitcoin regardless of any laws, anywhere.