ETF For those that DO time the market a bit, opinions?

No, not even on my radar and not the type of stock I'm looking for.
It's mainly ASX20 and some ASX50 all paying reasonable dividends.

What's wrong with buying the dip and then DCA?
That's how I do it.

 

what about TLS? hidh div and rather low now. not looking for advice just chatting

 

TLS is trading near a 52 week low with a fully franked yield of 4.6% or so. It would have to trade a lot closer to $3.00 before I would buy. The 52 week high is $4.46 by 0.6 equals $2.67, or a 30% drop equals $3.12.

 

I would'nt call TLS high div, though i like some things about it and do have a small amount. WOW, FMG, DXS and BHP as well.

As often stated in these threads there's a chance that may never happen. NBN turmoil may have fueled the past volatility.

 

Where do you park the funds whilst waiting for the dip (i.e. Offset, HISA, TD's)

Buying the dip, and still having some funds to DCA means you also still have ca$h if the dip, dippity-dips

 

LoL
It sits in gov guaranteed accounts earning 5% pa paid monthly.
And some in MOT,PL8, QRI paying 0.7% mth.

And while the person in your meme may be out of money as it dips his avg buy is a lot lower than someone that just dumped a pile of cash in the market.
if it never recovers, he lost less. If it does he makes more.

Did this last year with GEAR and posted the detals in ETF.

Then there's options. When FMG dipped under $24 I sold cash covered puts @ $22.5 strike.
With the cash quietly earning 5%pa. So that month return total return was 3%.
If nothing else happened my options allocated funds would earn 8% for the year. 13.66% is the actual for the FY so far.
It does require patience and I'll never say it's easy.
And everyone's situation is different. Peeps earn millions, and throw it in the market as a means of storage. Using and index for CG and a fast track to the top 5% is not much different in real terms to investing in RE as per dunno's deliberations.
You buy a house/index and throw cash at it for 30yrs and you're a millionaire.

 

Its easy at the moment to justify holding cash against a 6-7% home loan and wait for an opportunity but rewind 3 years and it doesnt feel great off setting a 2% loan.

 

And yet the last 3 years were perfect for buying the dips with some patience and discipline..

 

I don't really understand your logic here. You're saying you buy the dips but if a big one comes you're buying that stock at a strike price well above the current price during the dip because it's going to be exercised. So really you'd be forced to buy at high prices during a low prices time? Unless I'm interpreting you incorrectly?

As long as you understand the risk of what you're doing that's fine, but there's no chance I could sleep at night with that sword of Damocles hanging over my head.

 

If FMG goes below $22.5 within next 30 days and I still hold those puts i could be exercised and have to buy the shares.
In reality if it drops that far, I will most likely be able to roll the puts at break even (same profit) or better to around $20. Under $20 I'd probly be happy owning the stock and sell covered calls.

There's always risk and volatility when invested in markets.

Is that same sword hanging over your head that your buy'n'hold will drop another 10% by end of month? 20%? Will VAS drop to $85 or below?
What if once again the index stays in a range for 10-12yrs.
It's always a calculated risk and there's always prediction (or hope) involved.
So the less time in the market the less time the sword is over my head.
If you're 100% invested, that same sword is dangling 24/7...and swing precariously at every news event and drama.

 

Unpopular opinion- crypto is the forward looking indicator. If you are in equities following crypto market will give you God like edge.

 

I have a long term view for inter generational wealth building. I won’t be selling anything in my lifetime, my kids won’t be worried what price I paid in 2024 in the year 2075!!

Isn’t that the whole point of investing to eventually live off cashflow generated. Not eat (sell) the golden goose.
I get the money invested as much and as soon as I can every year.

one year you get a bargain the next year not, and on it goes. Who cares long term.

I have no idea what the price was or is and dont need to know or care as I plan to be living off the income stream generated ad infinitum..

worrying about DcA seems like a short term view, trading style thinking, not investor!
It’s a one way street for me, money going in only.
Cashflow later to meet minimum withdrawal requirements, reinvested if excess $$$, …..more money in.

just the way I think about it personally.

 

I strongly agree with the above. If I sell the assets I bought 30-40 years ago, most will attract CGT, some massive, so why sell? The only exception is superannuation which has tax for some of it, so I'm reducing the superannuation part.

There are just two reasons to invest - income and capital growth. I hope for and usually achieve both.

I have a rough idea of the current prices of shares and property, but not much specifics. Last week I checked a property value and it had gone up either $25,000 or $50,000. I cannot recall the amount or the new value. Like my shares that value is unimportant.

Income is important. Rent $500/week X 50 weeks is $25,000 less $6000 costs is $19,000 a year net. It might be $15,000 or $22,000. I'm not sure what the rent is and don't need to know it's around $500, close enough. The lease is fixed, it was the best amount the PM and I could get, and I'll check a few months before the lease expires.

The $15-22,000 will be added to other income, which is a multiple of expenditure.

I go into great detail when acquiring an asset, and in the case of property, improving it. Then I monitor for a few years. As the value increases and time progresses there is no need to look closely at the asset.

 

I suppose some people fantasize about living forever through by means of things and buildings.
Those that had the means built temples, pyramids, statues and skyscrapers in their quest for immortality.
I like to set an example of doing "my way" and on my terms. And not have any job by 40.
And I did the opposite and gave back to my parents.
I think that's what kids should be taught. Be FI by 35.

Well it worked for Buffett and he's considered an investor.

 

“Well it worked for Buffett and he's considered an investor.”

I still think DCA is effectively practiced on a longer timeframe. I tend to buy once a year for large lump sum amounts , but for concessional super is still effectively DCA on a shorter timeframe.
Over thirty years , a once a year purchase is still DCA by virtue of timeframe, I just personally don’t get hung up on whether the immediate perceived market conditions are expensive or cheap at the exact time.
I just think “what will that investment return likely get me in ten ,twenty, thirty years time?”

Most people don’t hold their super in cash waiting for a “buy the dip” moment in time. They barely give it a thought, auto pilot DCA. No thoughts about perceived market conditions.

I do the same with both , super and lump sums, straight in fully invested.
Have I ever looked back and worried about the high price I paid for any investments- no I don’t think i have.

To some a legacy is important, to others not so.
You deal with the cards you get dealt as far as family goes so it’s always case dependant.

I personally like and admire Peter Thornhill’s legacy plan, very elegant and well thought out. Some for family and some for charity but never to deplete the capital base, income only distributed in perpetuity.
Brilliant.
That’s what investing is about in my view. Especially if you have that magnitude of asset base to play with in your later years.

 

What if buying the dip is the equivalent of Jack Bogles 5% 'play' money? Its the thing that keeps you distracted/interested while you leave what is invested alone to do its thing?

Probably less harmful than 5% into Llama farming, Gin or Tesla.

A feeling of control, of actively engaging in your investments while over the 30+ years probably not really doing much to the end result apart from keeping you distracted

 

Did Lowey squander his legacy by selling Westfields? Perich by selling Oran Park? Ole Harry by selling his apartments? Walker?
Are they traders and not investors? Does the label others put on them even matter?

No.
There's a time to sow and a time to reap.
A time to plant, and a time to pluck.
A time to break down, and a time to build up.
A time to be compliant, a time to say FU all.

And heroes of martyrdom.

 

Week ending 17th of May will be the low for the year (in my opinion), looking forward to topping up IEM and the Aus ETFs! The us/global will also get some love but Aus and EM getting the most love from me next month.

 

30 weeks from the oct low.
Add 30 months to that low and we have an interesting time for a very tradable top.