VIC Melbourne Property Market 2024

The below graph shows that the property becomes cash flow positive by 2031 as opposed to 2041, so a 7 year time saving.

I was quite conservative with my assumptions as well:

- 7% interest rate
- 2% rental increase
- $430 a week rent for main dwelling (most likely $480)
- $380 a week rent for GF (most likely $400+)
- cost of GF $200k

 

Forget train noise, I would be more concerned with aeroplane noise in all these areas.

 

Train noise especially freight train in the middle of the night is worse than aeroplane noise.

 

People don't mind train noise if they will be catching trains regularly.

 

Came across this webinar from Terry Ryder and another buyers agent re: why Melb is a good place to invest right now.

interesting perspective on the land tax issue. I do think investors have overreacted to the tax, selling properties because of an extra $1500 a year seems a bit extreme to me,when you factor in holding long term for capital growth.


also this from investorkit -
Market Pressure Review: Greater Melbourne In 10 Charts | InvestorKit

he mentions Melbourne may be one of the top performers in the next 3-5 years

 

I agree the tax is not really that much of a big deal if you look at it long-term.
I think for some less sophisticated investors who you say bought five or seven years ago or something like that and have not made much money at all see this as kind of like the straw that breaks the camels back. Meanwhile people who are looking at Melbourne through fresh eyes see value.

In relation to Melbourne vs Perth if you are looking at the next three years or so probably Perth will have better gains even if you buy at this point. But if you look beyond that Melbourne's going to outperform Perth say over the next 10 years. So it comes down to your strategy because right now in Perth you're going to get some instant gains but that's not really going to happen in Melbourne for a while.

 

what’s your view on when the melb market might have good growth again?

 

Its not just the tax, its a combination of higher interest rates and this just was the final nail in the coffin, why we see investors offloading. They just can not afford to hold

If the strategy is to buy on a low and hold for the upside. Stick to houses, as close to cdb as possible and if its potential deve site will be a winner.

next boom cycle in Melb will be extraordinary. The stars will line up eventually. Just make sure you have capacity to hold now

 

Post 2030 (start of the new 18.6 year cycle) IMO.

 

I believe it will have positive growth from this point forward but low.
More solid growth its going to be a couple of years.
Ten year timeframe, Melbourne is looking the best place to buy right now imho. Where else? Everywhere else is either booming or coming off a boom.

 

thanks that’s good to know.im trying to hold a property in Upwey that been costing me a lot in repairs but think I might be on the other side of it now and it should settle down. It’s quite a way from the cbd but has historically done well with price growth. What’s your view on when the next big growth cycle will occur?

 

true
It’s due for another growth cycle. I think it will be next.now that dictator Dan is gone hopefully people can move forward from the damage he caused!

 

Did you watch it ?It actually shows why Melbourne is not a good place to invest obviously couldnt find a viable example in Melbourne , so choose Geelong and Ballarat using 2020 data as examples and even those were bleeding 2K a month. WTF!??? I sold in Melbourne when land tax cost 2k for just one property, it would be 3k now This is just more mindless noise and spruiking from a buyers agent. I have heard Ballarat businesses are doing it tough with many cafe's going to the wall, and every damned town is upgrading airports and medical facilities Ballarat aint anything special, i doubt hardly any-one uses the airport

 

I take Terry Ryder with a grain of salt. His predictions are somewhat his and miss. Never been a fan

Investors in the main are out of this/Melbmarket

I believe FBH market is ok for decent well located homes. But not as many buyers competing

As I have said before my strategy is to buy when indicators are pointing to a reduction of stock.

For those buying in this market now, they will need to be able to hold. This is where it gets tricky as we dont know when this market will rise and when interest rates will drop???

 

I love the sound of trains at night.

 

Hi Brain Trust,

I am a novice in real estate investment. Panning to buy my first IP. I am doing my due diligence and at the same time seeking inputs from experienced folks too. If you have a budget of $600K to $700K where would you invest in Melbourne for long term ?

 

This one is not under any flight paths. Have you done your research on the area?

 

Oh that’s a long road to recovery

 

I am reading it as 2030 is 12 o'clock?

 

You can also liken this to the Empire State Building (empty state building) opening empty etc.
Basically all these projects propel us into the peak and then open after the peak “empty”

side note, funny how many people have heard of Phil and Fred and theirs work nowadays.