Crypto Bitcoin and Fiat

FTX founder, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), has been sentenced to 25 years in prison and ordered to forfeit more than $11 billion.

 

It's crazy that the money people get back is in $ using valuations from the bankruptcy date.

Eg SOL at $10 when it's now worth $180, BTC at $18k when it's now worth $70k. So much wealth destruction caused.

I was a heavy user of FTX, lucky pulled out a few weeks before except for a small amount of his FTT ****coin that I held for fees refunds.

 

Hmmm....you reckon funds will be returned when this all gets sorted, assets sold etc

 

Haha yeah they're sitting on way more cash than when that happened thanks to the market performance, the bankruptcy happened at the market bottom as they do.

No idea who will keep all the extra gains above valuation prices, except the lawyers of course

 

Very nice of new crypto investors to provide liquidity to bail out the people that got scammed

 

That's incorrect, there was no bail out. The people that got scammed only got the $ value back (at the worst valuation).

Of course they would've preferred the crypto though. Because their $ have been stuck they've been uninvested since the date that happened to be the perfect buy in date.

 

FTX collapse is overall positive for Bitcoin price action. People really understood to take their spot bitcoins off exchanges and one bad actor out of the crypto space.

 

My point is the market recovery driven by new investors is what has closed the gap in $8B of stolen funds allowing people to get their money back.

That’s not how bankruptcy works. Any remaining money after paying creditors would go to equity holders.

 

Was a foregone inclusion, because it was a self-created bottom. Nothing nefarious ala luring in new investors. The media coverage was very scathing and not at all convincing for new investors to come in. Many people called crypto dead and the usual cycle low stuff.

Recovery from a bear bottom is usually crypto native traders buying back in, front-running the next cycle. Retail "new investors" usually come later after times are good when prices are already quite high (like now) and media coverage takes a turn.

 

FTX only received court permission in September 2023 to start liquidating 100-200m assets per week. Whether it is new crypto investors or existing investors adding to their holdings, they are effectively funding the payout to creditors

 

Even in Jan 2024 there still wasn't many new faces.

I don't get your point unless you're trying in a round about way to say people were mugs to buy in Sep 2023? Solana (Sam's main holding) was $20-30 is now $180. Or to explain the obvious - how markets work?

You said it was nice of them? I don't get it.
People bought crypto because they speculate it would go up based on the cycles or other reasons, and sold at higher prices. Nothing nice about it.

 

The stolen $8b that has been recovered by price appreciation isn’t coming from thin air, it is coming from inflows. Thats my only point.

 

Explaining how markers work, all good. You're preaching to the choir

 

With AI generated art getting so good I just can't see why these sorts of things would be holding any particular value I think they are a bit of a gimmick.

 

Because he's got a heap of Bitcoin.
But yes, long term I think Bitcoin is a good growth asset

 

The art is not that good IMO, at least for me it doesn't do it though I'm no expert on that front. There are other types of NFT that are more art focussed.

The gimmick is just a social thing, there's a story behind them and reasons they become in demand. Like IRL people might show off with a fancy watch or flash car. In the world of VCs, crypto etc people show off on twitter/telegram/discord instead with an expensive profile picture where they get more views than IRL.

There's sometimes other benefits, eg got a $7k value airdrop for owning one previously. Teams think you're a loyal crypto native so donate you tokens for their new project.

For me it's just a risky bet, that worked previously I'm trying to repeat. There's no world that I really believe they are worth that much $ to me (but they are worth that to someone else).

 

@DanW what is your Bitcoin top price prediction for the cycle & when do you think we will see the cycle peak ?

 

I don't have a prediction for top price or timing, my edge is knowing that I can't predict it but I do look at long term cycle ranges. Predictions can be fun but are dangerous - last cycle everyone's eye was on $100k BTC and it couldn't even get past $70k. Eg PlanB with the stock2flow had a lot of people fooled.

I just regularly re-evaluate the risk/reward. Ask myself if I was sidelined today, could I stomach depositing the amount of cash it would require to buy my portfolio? So I've sold little bits on the way up.

Odds are it keeps going and 2024 is a great year assuming macro plays well, interest rates, election etc. But it's not the sure bet that I saw in 2022, the risk/reward is lower. If we're following historical precedents then maybe 1.5-3x for BTC from 70k now, vs 6x-12x from the 17k bottom in 2022. When it's the top, we won't know until some time later.

 

https://news.bitcoin.com/blackrock-spot-bitcoin-etfs-holdings-soar-past-252k-btc-ceo-says-hes-pleasantly-surprised-by-retail-demand/

 

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