You Dont Know What You Dont Know

This guy certainly puts a different spin on it.

This Matrix of Knowledge (E Goodman)... got me very confused, not hard.

Anyone want to explain, or give an example in very simple terms so an average person can understand.


In this “matrix of knowledge,” the four quadrants represent the following:

1. A) What you know that you know,
2. B) What you don’t know that you know,
3. C) What you know that you don’t know
4. D) What you don’t know that you don’t know.

 

You could think about this for property development pretty easily

1. You know what you know, it's in your budget
2. You know what you don't know - eg the market by the time its finished
3. Assumptions - you don't know the excavation costs, depends if you hit rock
4. Who ******* knows... !! Could be anything!

 

LOL.... 4..... brilliant, this is my future feasibility study sort of

 

We talk about this in surgery. It's a bit like conscious competence, conscious incompetence, unconcious competence and unconscious incompetence - the latter being the most dangerous.


Maybe I want conscience in there. I've confused myself.

 

In another light, it is similar to the four levels of competence.

1. Unconscious competence
2. Conscious competence
3. Conscious incompetence
4. Unconscious incompetence

 

lol...like this

 

Here is an example from the Taxi Industry over the last few years:
A. Taxis made money and the plates were very valuable 10 years ago (known, knowns)
B. The rise of mobile phones was going to have an effect on how taxis could be ordered, but how much. (known, unknowns)
C. What would be the effect as phones got smarter? (unknown, knowns)
D. UBER app decimates the taxi industry and value of taxi plates over the last 2 years (Unknown,unknowns)

 

I think it’s used in risk management e.g. a la Donald Rumsfeld:
1. Identified, mitigated risk
2. Identified, unmitigated risk
3. Unidentified capability
4. Unidentified, unmitigated risk.

However I like this interpretation better – the 4 stages of consciousness:
1. The domain of logic and rationality: you operate in a world of certainty and proven truths
2. The domain of wisdom: you realise there are other truths than logic and rationality
3. The domain of intuition: you grasp truths naturally without being aware of it
4. The domain of creativity: everything is new and no need for truths.

 

1. Known knowns - we are aware that we know certain things. (We are living organisms)

2. Known Unknowns - we are aware that certain things we don't know. (How big is the universe?)

3. Unknown knowns - we are unaware that we know certain things. (Presuppositions in certain circumstances)

4. Unknown unknowns - we are unaware that we don't know certain things. (Not being aware about a possible event affecting us because we don't know that it is a possibility)

 

In the world of property development

1 is joining PC and absorbing everything you can and going into a development where you've spoken to lots of people and gotten good advice

2. you know that you have no control over interest rates, economy etc so you use conservative figures and model scenarios where these items do change to make sure it's still ok and you throw in a 10% contingency amount in the budget.

3 is finding a road widening easement after signing contract but before settling and you don't know what to do BUT you do know to call a lawyer

4 is reading an API interview were a couple made $50k on a triplex development and going and buying a triplex block in the same suburb at any price because you think $50k is cool and anyone can do it
- you don't know that $50k is bad
- you don't know that you should do a feasibility
- you don't even know how much the original people paid and whether it's duplicatable
- nor do you even know how much you can borrow

 

Lol at 4!

 

Have also seen this called the Johari window: Johari window - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

This is the infamous rummy ( Donald Rumsfeld) adaptation of the above source..google his videos on the white house defence secrrtary briefing at the time re Iraq war and the thought of wmd present as at pretext to invasion.

 

thanks