You cant fight the trend

This is interesting read.
I share his views and why in part I have been cashing up.

Memo to Glenn Stevens — You Can’t Fight the Trend

 

Interesting. Eventually he'll be right, is 2016 the year? Who knows.

For me it's still steady as she goes, purchase x amount of property a year and soldier on. I'll buy some at the top and some at the bottom still moving forwards to my end goals.

I think trying to time the market is as dangerous as over extending oneself. Too few people can actually reliably predict things.

 

"Let the trend be your friend."

^^^An old saying in following share market prices.


"Make hay while the sun shines"

^^^ don't miss opportunities.



" a stitch in time saves nine"


^^^^ I'm getting carried away now lol.

 

Important to consider these theories, there is certainly some validity to the claims.

Also important to work out the opportunities if some of this does happen. Imo with banks getting more and more conservative with non traditional lending theres great opportunities to invest in fast growing private companies needing cashflow. Can be a loan with fixed interest, can be a % of profit on a particular project, convertible note, straight equity purchase whatever.

Plenty of cool things happening outsidr property, those who are cashed up and ready to go can pounce

Eg someone i know recently made 40% annualised return on a 3 month loan to a sttong business with good balance sheet and p&l and was guaranteed by business and directors guarantees. The key was he had access to a 7 figure sum in 48 hours.

Property isnt the only game out there, get yourself into the position where if it tanks you have plenty of other ways to make money.

 

I enjoy reading the daily reckoning. Also cashed up and ready to wait it out while increasing the bank balance. Interesting times ahead

 

The daily reakoning . The name says it all . Up there with macroeconomics for positive spins .

You really have it in your mind that the world is ending don't you MTR .

Basically an opinion piece from a nobody .

Cliff

 

Daily reckoning isn't like macroeconomics, it's neutral on the info it shares and admits when it's wrong. Macroecomics is pure negativity at all times.

 

Now you are joking, right I don't like the title either

I am a positive person, have to be in this game. Read some of my posts.

I have projects on the go, I have not stopped investing and in fact I was an investor buying up during GFC when most were running for the hills.

I am also not in la la land.

I posted a link, what people do with this information is their choice. If you disagree that's fine I have a different view

 

It's always doom and gloom, even in the run up of prices over the last few years.

Wishing something to happen is vastly different to what may happen. It's prudent to have a solid understanding of economics rather than being constantly swayed by opinion pieces - most which have their own agenda.

 

yeah most of these websites spew nonsense and completely ignore the potential for opportunities even in downturns.

that being said though on occasion i do find an interesting point or bit of info from a bearish article even if i disagree with the rest of it.

 

I find it quite interesting been reading it for 6 months now.

MTR

 

Just because an author writes something or has a particular view, doesn't mean it will happen. The info that is written in daily reckoning I find interesting. I read all the 'fluffy' positive material published, and also the negative 'world is ending' stuff and make my decisions from that.

 

... and there are many threads on this forum about the fluffy pretty stuff .... does not mean I believe it, I also make my own decisions regardless whether its on a forum, magazine etc.
That's when the BS detector comes in handy

MTR

 

Exactly, totally agree.

 

Just an observation but there seems to be a different mood showing up between West Coast and East Coast atm especially NSW - where we continue on a good wicket.
Perth had such a good run for a very long time and it sounds like housing and mining are not bringing home the bacon atm.
To me the future looks rosey and if that dollar will get down and stay down there's tourism and international education champing at the bit to get moving again. First world problem: everyone still wants to invest in our future.

 

Slump in iron ore prices effects all of Australia, you perhaps dont see it personally but it will impact Oz wide

Future is always rosey positive attitude is key, but I like to protect what I have, that's not negative that is just managing risk

 

I guess it's the other side of the 2 speed economy. When mining was hot, a lot of other inustries had to sit on the back burner. That's why I'm positive about their return as top income producers.
However, I think you're right to protect your assets and stay up to date with changes. Good to get the WA perspective, too.

 

When mining ran hot interest rates were at 9%, it was impossible to get a tradie. locations with little mining suffered as their tourism and service industries suffered. Manufacturing industries suffered a sharp downturn which they have hardly recovered from.
Tax revenue will suffer but...there are always winners and losers depending on perspective.

 

I am actually holding and building in the East.

I am watching closely west Syd is starting to slip slide.
Certain markets in Melb also changing, auction clearances are falling

Not saying a crash but the markets are changing.

I don't plan to over analyse, it is what it is, but I don't plan to ignore it either

I posted this thread as a wake up call, I have been through 6 cycles now, made plenty of mistakes.
Just good to have your bases covered at the moment

MTR

 

But some won't come back. The high dollar was a key factor (not the only one) in forcing the closure of our car industry. I suspect that were the decision being made now, with today's exchange rate, things might be different.

For anyone in Melbourne with the slightest interest in cars, take the free Toyota factory tour while you still can - hugely impressive, though sad too, knowing it will be gone in a year or so.