Yet another one: How concerned are you about the housing slump?

Discussion in 'Investor Psychology & Mindset' started by spludgey, 3rd Jan, 2019.

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On a scale of 1 to 10, how concerned are you about the housing market outlook?

  1. -1000!

    11 vote(s)
    15.3%

  2. 1

    13 vote(s)
    18.1%

  3. 2

    13 vote(s)
    18.1%

  4. 3

    13 vote(s)
    18.1%

  5. 4 or 5

    11 vote(s)
    15.3%

  6. 6

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  7. 7

    4 vote(s)
    5.6%

  8. 8

    1 vote(s)
    1.4%

  9. 9

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  10. 10

    6 vote(s)
    8.3%
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  1. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

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    Sydney
    On a scale of 1 to 10, how concerned are you about how much properties have dropped already and about the chatter of doom and gloom?
    You can also include Labor's election promises in that, which are likely to slow price growth, in my opinion.

    1 is not concerned at all and 10 is "Oh ****, the sky is going to fall in and we're all doomed!"

    Personally, I'm a 3. But I should note that I don't actually have any investments in Sydney or Melbourne.
     
    spludgey, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #1
    jefn89 likes this.
  2. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    Australia
    even if the sky falls, some might have a concrete bunker.
     
    Trainee, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #2
    jefn89 likes this.
  3. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Posts:
    8,415
    Location:
    Gold Coast
    Bought my first property in 1979, 40 years ago this year.

    Bought my first IP in 1992, 27 years ago and still own it.

    Seen many slumps come and many slumps go!!!

    Hopefully, I will see many more slumps come and many more go!!!

    So, I am NOT worried in the slightest :D.

    Share and property slumps are a bit like breathing, part of life.

    Once they stop, you know you are dead :eek:.
     
    kierank, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #3
    bob shovel, MikeyBallarat, Toon and 9 others like this.
  4. wooster

    wooster Well-Known Member

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    28th Jan, 2018
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    Location:
    sydney
    I am very concerned, so, I can pick the right time and buy some bargain ;););)
     
    wooster, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #4
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  5. EN710

    EN710 Well-Known Member

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    Location:
    Melburn
    4-5 is my vote.
    Nothing high as sky is falling, I'm just quietly and steadily increasing my buffer.
    More like, would I have enough money to buy when price is good? Sigh :(
     
    EN710, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #5
    highlighter likes this.
  6. Propertunity

    Propertunity Well-Known Member

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    Location:
    NSW
    ^ +1 for me too
     
    Propertunity, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #6
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  7. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Location:
    ....UKI nth nsw ....
    Just like any investment cycle ,the only item that changes is the price..

    Myself I have seen the leadup , then the rapid falls several times in my life ..

    upload_2019-1-3_8-43-34.jpeg

    -1000!
     
    willair, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #7
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  8. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Not concerned at all. The narrative to have is really 'what opportunities are/will be available'?

    It will all come down to when, what and where people bought as to what narrative they will have. Personally, I find quite exciting times to be ahead.
     
    Sackie, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #8
    wooster likes this.
  9. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Location:
    Sydney
    I am very worried......for the sellers of Sydney property of course......can see some fire sales happening in 2020.....might be an ideal time to buy. then....

    @Sackie why did you change yo handle.... did you have any mistresses or debt collectors chasing you.....;)
     
    sash, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #9
  10. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
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    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Whatcha talkin... Me own no real estate!
     
    Sackie, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #10
  11. Shogun

    Shogun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th May, 2018
    Posts:
    2,894
    Location:
    Perth
    Your just asking about Sydney?
     
    Shogun, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #11
  12. Guest

    Guest Guest

    3 based on where I own property. If I was a recent buyer in the Sydney or Melbourne property market it would be more like a 7.
     
    Guest, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #12
  13. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    28th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    2,867
    Location:
    Darwin
    We're a bit further along the road to ruin up here in Darwin so the time for being concerned had long passed as we're bouncing along the bottom right now.

    My only concern is that prices stay deliciously low for just a little longer so I can bags me a bargain....
     
    hammer, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #13
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  14. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
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    Location:
    Melbourne
    -1000

    Maybe should be a +1, but as written elsewhere we are in a fortunate position to be almost debt free on the portfolio (the IP portfolio is artificially kept in the red, and balance held in shares/REITs)

    We are a relatively recent buyer in Melb - considering our last purchase settled in Jan 2017. But prices continued to rocket through 2017 in the area and has only now started to slow down. In any case, with us hitting serviceability limits with the last purchase, we were going to sit back in the IP market for a good 5 to 10 years anyway, as the next purchase will probably be "cash" (using draw downs/offsets/sales of other assets)

    The main concerns and risks I see on the horizon for us (beyond meteor strikes, alien invasions, Coming of the Lord, climate change etc) would be: tenant availability (if houses are cheaper, they may be able to buy rather than rent); general economy, employment (if no one buys houses/apartments and construction industry dies etc) and no one cay pay rent (luckily our places are either lower end or houses where people share the rent); banks go down the gurgler because they can't rip people off any more (I have bank shares); commercial properties turns crap because of economic concerns above and/or government goes bust (we have government tenants in some buildings); industrial properties turn to crap because the businesses in them go bust (probably the most likely risk of this entire list); people stop shopping at shopping centres (despite various "amazon" forecasts, still don't see this happening).

    The Y-man
     
    The Y-man, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #14
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  15. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    Mt Druuiitt
    I want to lodge a complaint about the poll....there is no minus 1,000,000.

    Not concerned. As that rich dude once said "buy when people are fearful and sell when the mrs sells you up or whatever lol."
     
    datto, 3rd Jan, 2019
    #15
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  16. Travelbug

    Travelbug Well-Known Member

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    Location:
    Gold Coast (from Sydney)
    On a personal level I voted 1. But I am concerned for the multitudes that overreached during the boom. There's pain to be had there.
     
    Travelbug, 4th Jan, 2019
    #16
  17. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    15,663
    Location:
    Sydney
    Can understand your 1 position (i.e. no debt)......

    Agree with magnitudes over reached in Sydney..... what is more of a concern is rents. I have noticed that they have started moving down 5-10%....and it is not only on stuff on over $1000 plus but also in areas where rents are 300-450pw. For example ..in Meadowbank...I have an older unit where the rent has held up ...it would have rented for $420pw...now it is at $390-410pw.

    But for newer units..on 1 brms ...they have dropped from $550-600pw...to even $450-500pw....2 brms from 650-700pw to 550-600pw...they are not getting the advertised prices...
     
    sash, 4th Jan, 2019
    #17
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  18. bobbyj

    bobbyj Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    350
    Location:
    Sydney
    Not worried
    I fixed all my loans interest only for a few years
    Now I’m forced to sit on my hands.
    Only question is if I’m selling up in 5-10years
     
    bobbyj, 5th Jan, 2019
    #18
    datto likes this.
  19. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    Location:
    N.S.W , W.A
    This year looks like being the big year for investors being pushed onto P&I loans which may push Sydney and Melbourne into uncharted territory.
    Something like one in six interest only loans will roll over this year.

    Property borrowers brace for $300b interest-only credit crunch

    "Investors who fuelled the boom in property prices about 2014-15, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney, are estimated to account for 40 per cent of buyers facing increased rates."
     
    marmot, 5th Jan, 2019
    #19
  20. MikeyBallarat

    MikeyBallarat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Aug, 2016
    Posts:
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    Location:
    Ballarat East
    -1000 for me. Why?

    - All my loans are principal and interest
    - My loan amounts add up to less than 4x my yearly income (3x yearly income when including offset cash)
    - I don’t own in Melbourne or Sydney
    - My properties have appreciated significantly after buying them, judging by comparable sales, so even if the market does soften I still have a significant buffer
    - I don’t believe media hype
    - I’m actually quite happy that tight lending restrictions are seeming to be relaxed (at least from my lay person’s viewpoint

    I think a lot of the hype surrounding a property crash is down to people *hoping* they can snare a $300k bargain in chic Melbourne suburbs. Joke’s on you guys, my PPOR cost less than $300k and I didn’t even need a property crash for that!

    Edit: Regardless of all this, I still hope the commie *******s don’t get elected next year.
     
    MikeyBallarat, 6th Jan, 2019
    #20
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