Would you gamble on this ?

How does that explain that more people were willing to bet on the option with less chance of a return of capital?
The expected positive return was the same for both samples.

 

U might be reading too much into an entirely hypothetical and slightly pointless discussion imo

 

I wouldn't do it even if I had 3 x flips.

The thought of losing money on something I have zero control over frustrates me too much.. even on 3 flips there is a 26% chance of losing money..

 

That is correct and true.
As you can see, the more flips you take, the lower your chances of losing.
And as you would know, your chance of a complete wipe out is only 3.69% with 3 flips.

How many flips would make you comfortable to play?

 

If I was allowed to incorporate a martingale system in all this, man I would be there right now with 20k ready to go. (200 was a typo)

 

Anti-Martingale would produce better returns provided you have a reasonable stop-gain point.

Actually, flat stakes is probably the best for consistency.
Any method that can get as much action down as possible, while minimizing wild swings/bankroll fluctuation, would be the best strategy.

 

hmm good point. but with only a 3.69% chance of wiping out after 3 goes... I was thinking there might be room to use the Martingale method at least short term in order to further reduce your chance of losing capital...?


edit: I was just thinking, with only 3.69% after three turns to lose.... really medium to long terms its going to be very, very hard to lose money and not make money...or am I missing something..

 

Martingale doesn't change the odds though, so chance of a wipeout after 3 goes is the same regardless of which betting progression/regression you choose.
It would also amplify your losses exponentially when that wipeout does occur.
The best strategy would depend on how may goes you get to have.

If for example, you could have unlimited goes, you could bet a percentage of your bankroll.
The chance of losing 5 times in a row is less than 1/2 of one percent..
You'd be very extremely safe betting 10% of your bankroll and you'll never be wiped out.
As your bankroll grows, so does your 10% stake.

 

yep makes sense.

Sign me up asap