Would you gamble on this ?

Discussion in 'Investor Psychology & Mindset' started by Ace in the Hole, 31st Jul, 2015.

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Would you stake $1,000 of real money right now for this opportunity?

  1. No.

    30 vote(s)
    61.2%
  2. Yes.

    19 vote(s)
    38.8%
  1. Random Username

    Random Username Well-Known Member

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    Maybe the same poll on Property Chat in two years time may produce a different set of results......
     
  2. devank

    devank Well-Known Member

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    Question is... Would you like to be surrounded by yes group or no group?
     
  3. Beelzebub

    Beelzebub Well-Known Member

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    I would take those odds on any amount of money so long as my personal circumstances meant that my lifestyle and goals would not be impacted if I lost.
     
  4. Ace in the Hole

    Ace in the Hole Well-Known Member

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    I would team with the Yes group.
     
  5. chindonly

    chindonly Well-Known Member

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    I would. Probably $10k.
     
  6. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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    I vote yes. Same logic as Steve.

    Second question. I would probably up to a weeks worth of work on it.

    Blacky
     
  7. aussieshorter

    aussieshorter Well-Known Member

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    Exactly this.

    I don't consider myself risk averse, but risk mitigation and capital preservation is an important part of my strategy.

    An all or nothing bet doesn't fit with that.
     
  8. Brian84

    Brian84 Well-Known Member

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    I would have a crack if I had a spare $1000.

    Ever played 2 up on Anzac Day lol
     
  9. 158

    158 Well-Known Member

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    I don't gamble. I only put money down where I already know I'm going to get a positive outcome.

    Sports arbitrage.

    pinkboy
     
  10. Chilliblue

    Chilliblue Well-Known Member

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    No for me
     
  11. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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  12. wategos

    wategos Well-Known Member

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    My scam detector would not allow be to believe the offer, so answer is No for that reason.
     
  13. Bargain Hunter

    Bargain Hunter Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely not, never, you are insane.

    Now if I had unlimited funds and could have infinite double ups then the answer would be yes.... as long as Skater would let me.
     
  14. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    gotchya! Agreed. With those odds and no house edge, you can't lose. :D
     
  15. S.T

    S.T Well-Known Member

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    I'd need to read books about mindset, watch videos on Jim Rohn, probably attend a few courses, spend 20% of my income on "self learning" and then I could make a decision on whether I'd take this bet.
     
    miked and Random Username like this.
  16. sanj

    sanj Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I don't think it's a reflection of risk profile or status. Eg I wouldn't do it as the odds are crap. 33% chance of losing an entire investment would mean I would want the potential profit to be a lot more than 100%.

    I'm all for taking calculated risks and do so all day every day, this doesn't appeal to me in 5 he slightest though
     
  17. Ace in the Hole

    Ace in the Hole Well-Known Member

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    These results are a little underwhelming.
    The chances of a return on your $1,000 stake is 66.6% for a positive expectation of +33.3% profit.
    Even at 66.6% chance of a return, only 40% of people would accept this, main reason being due to capital preservation.

    Check out the results from this second variation - https://propertychat.com.au/community/threads/would-you-gamble-on-this-2.2319/
    The chances of a return on your $1,000 stake is only 50% for a positive expectation of +35% profit.
    At a reduced 50% chance of a return, a larger 50% of people would accept this, even with a higher risk of capital erosion.

    Can anybody explain why more people would gamble on the 50% chance of return vs the 66.6% chance of return, when the gains are virtually the same, (33.3% vs 35%)
    This makes absolutely no sense at all and may actually reveal that some people don't really understand probability related to risk vs reward against capital base.

    However, I deliberately put "NO" as the first option in the first poll, and "YES" as the first option in the second poll.
    Do you think that made a difference to perceptions?
     
    Last edited: 13th Aug, 2015
  18. citystar

    citystar Well-Known Member

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    I don't gamble, that's one promise I made to myself long ago.
     
  19. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Its the same with the Australian population. Most people don't understand the risks/benefits of investing in property compared to the risks/benefits of not investing. If they really understood the reality of it, I think we would see a hell of a lot more people scrambling to invest before its too late.
     
  20. sanj

    sanj Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    @Ace in the Hole the reason is because this is a one off with a significsnt chance of losing money. Im in no way risk averse but i think this scenario is terrible, the return is far too low for the level of risk
     

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