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Would you gamble on this - 2 ?

Discussion in 'Investor Psychology' started by Ace in the Hole, 2nd Aug, 2015.

?

Would you stake $1,000 of real money right now for this opportunity?

  1. Yes

    17 vote(s)
    48.6%
  2. No

    18 vote(s)
    51.4%
  1. Ace in the Hole

    Ace in the Hole Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    This is a variation of another recent thread.

    I'm interested in the risk profile of members here and psychology making financial decisions when knowing the exact chances of outcomes in advance.

    Please answer honestly as if it were a real situation and you had to make a decision right now.
    1. Unbiased coin flip, exactly 50% chance of either heads or tails resulting.
    2. Heads you win, tails you lose.
    3. Stake to play is $1,000.
    4. Heads is paying a bonus today so that when you win, you get back $2,700 instead of the correct odds of $2,000.
    You only get 1 attempt, will you play?
     
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  2. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Short answer yes, I'd play for fun.
     
  3. freyja

    freyja Well-Known Member

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    I don't think this exercise is helpful in determining member's risk profile/financial decision processes in any arena other than a casino. Hence, I answered no - I'm not a big gambler.
     
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  4. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

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    No, I don't see what is fun about it other than a few seconds while the coin is in the air. I would prefer to put my money on the stock market and having a almost 100% chance of retaining some capital and an 80% chance of making money for a long time. Ive put less than that on the stock market with little risk of losing capital and made a 100k, and made 20-50k a few times. Doubled my money on BAP in 12 months, near done the same on BAL and HSN in less than 6 months, with what I consider liitle risk. It is fun every day watching it go up.
     
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  5. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

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    The best way to make money out of gambling industry is invest in the industry, my shares in ALL (makes machines for gambling) are up 50% in 18 months and earn a dividend of 10%.
     
  6. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Fargo and Freyja, would you make this same bet if you could do it as many times as you wanted?
     
  7. freyja

    freyja Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm, I'm not a gambler but now you've got my attention! Could I double my bet each play?
     
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  8. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

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    Yes, again.

    As per previous, I will continue to make bets with favourable odds as part of my wider investment and wealth creation philosophy.

    A good example of this was the rate decisions earlier in the year.

    I was confident we had a couple coming and put my first EVER bets on anything, ever, by taking a wider view e.g. "If I am right this month and wrong next, I'm still on top if odds are comparable".

    Odds for cuts were paying 2.30 to 2.75, so I figured if I hit one and missed another, I'd still be on top. I had two cracks to get it right and if things worked out for the best, I'd be way ahead.

    I put $250 on a cut in Feb and returned $575.

    I put $250 on no change in March and returned about $300 (could have missed this one easily though).

    I put $500 on May and returned $1,150.

    I'll take these kinds of bets all day long:

    [​IMG]

    I'll be putting my money where my mouth is again later in the year if I feel I have enough info, and the odds stack up.
     
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  9. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    I also don't think it is a good way to judge our risk profile. In flipping a coin, I have no control over it and it is just closing my eyes and wishing. With anything else we put out money into, there is some way we can influence the outcome, even just a small amount. I'm not a gambler, and perhaps that would be a more interesting poll, to see who is willing to lose the lot and actually does it in real life.
     
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  10. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    yep.
     
  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Perhaps a good time to do this with the Au$.....falling......
     
  12. Investig8

    Investig8 Well-Known Member

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    Simple, No. You haven't taken the bet to interesting, new and exciting heights, it is a flash in the pan, all over in 5 seconds, a poker machine offers more excitement than that.

    There's a lot more that goes into a profile, especially that of a gambler, IMHO.

    1. Boredom, 2. Addictive Personality, 3. Competitive Nature, 4. Depression, 5. OCD etc etc.

    I would say from a personal perspective that property investing is one of the safest, interesting, sometimes very boring, well secured choices I ever got involved with.
     
  13. Ace in the Hole

    Ace in the Hole Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I like your style brother.

    This is what I'm trying to get at with these posts, but most people seem to be hesitant to take up the offer.
    I really do think that says something about the way people approach opportunities.

    I think the biggest issue here is capital preservation, but it's $1,000, not $100,000.
    If you take opportunities like this your whole life, you will be so far ahead in the long run than if you did not.

    This thread is not about the activity of gambling or the feelings experienced, it's purely about the percentages.
     
  14. Be Developer

    Be Developer Property Developer Business Member

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    whoaa...missed both of your betting thread.

    I ll place bets like steven ryan.. in fact, i do most of the time.

    but flipping coin for $1000....not for me.

    it is $1000 for short lived fun ..
     
  15. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Off topic here but anyone play poker and skilled at it?
     
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  16. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    I don't gamble, it's a slippery slope throwing away $1,000.
     
  17. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Eve if your odds of winning were 70%each time and losing 30% paying 1:1 with unlimited times to play. Would you not be in line for that?
     
  18. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    I no smart enough to win, even with a sure thing.
    Seriously though, I've known some people who you could see the 'gamblor' in their eyes while at the club or a casino, not good. Seeing the desperados spending their pensions on the pokies is sad. I've known people who've gone through $10k easily on their addiction. I've preferred video games myself.
     
  19. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I know what you mean mate ..but with scenario I framed. .you really can't lose. .hehe it's even easier than property investing:D
     
  20. Jess Peletier

    Jess Peletier Mortgage Broker - Australia Wide Business Member

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    I would play this as much as I possibly could.

    50/50 chance of winning, with the win being significantly bigger than the loss.

    Bring it.
     
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