Would you buy now in Australia. (or wait to see the outcome of virus outbreak)

I would say the made in China stigma may grow from current events also, might be a trigger to move away from made in China products for many industries.

 

PPOR 1.5 mil plus inner east melbourne buy now if you like something. Serious lack of well located stock and massive demand. Watch 22nd and 29th feb auction results it will impress in this market

 

It still too early to said. Economic indicators usually lag quite a lot, by months. We did not see much impacts at this moment because the first phase of the outbreak was sync with the lunar new year holidays. But now most of the factories and companies remain shut after the holiday and nobody sure when the outbreak will dial down, the local and global economy will start paying heavy toll on this. And don't forget the travel bans all over the world as well. This could be the catalyst

On the other hand, equity markets keep reach new highs all over the world. It is mainly the excess liquidity from ECB, FEB, BOJ, China central bank and etc. These hot money are chasing yields and return and basically jack up the price of everything you could buy in the market, even those BBB grade bonds (I believe these bonds just one step away from junk bonds grade). Just look at the stock price of Tesla a few days ago, those vertical gap ups and downs are absolute lunacy. Should you be afraid and taking defense mode? This is a very interest question.

 

Yes I would buy acres in the outback and begin prepping for supplies.

 

Any impacts to the Aus economy and property markets will be temporary. It wouldn't stop me buying a long term asset like property. Equities are a different story, because we are due a correction, and sentiment could easily change and be the trigger for a significant correction. Better to buy after this.

The virus could very well trigger a global downturn with material impacts (even a recession) for the Aus economy if not handled well. There is the obvious and fairly direct impact of declining international arrivals and reduced demand for Australian energy / resources exports that is now being felt as China continues on care and maintenance mode. But more significant globally (and locally) is the interruption to most supply chains that is just beginning to be felt. Very few products don't have some Chinese input. E.g. tech companies can't make many phones etc for a while, Aussie retailers can't sell very much (or consumers defer buying until pricing and availability returns to normal), then retail staff layoffs, etc. There would be similar scenarios throughout the retail, automotive, construction and even local manufacturing sectors (lots of components and materials come from China). The global economy almost grinds to a halt without China so if this virus is not contained soon, things could get quite ugly for a bit.

 

I've been following the Covid-19 virus very closely since shortly after its emergence. It's certainly an interesting variable to throw in the mix.

- At a personal level, I did go through a "prepping" phase a few weeks back. P95 masks, hand sanitiser, tinned food. Things like masks can't reliably be obtained if it does all hit the fan, so I've gone with a "better safe than sorry" approach.
- I've moved from high-growth stocks to 100% cash this week. I'm concerned that the effect of supply chain disruption in China is being underestimated. I think China will continue to be a mess for some time.
- I don't think the virus is going to disappear any time soon, so this is a medium-term issue.

Having said that, I'm also feeling pleased atm that the virus hasn't caused as much havoc outside China as I worried it might have by now.

If China continues to get hammered - which I believe it will - it is interesting to think about what it means for Australian property.

- Will it accelerate the movement of capital from China to Australia? The epidemic and the government response do not make China attractive.
- Over time, Melbourne and Sydney are likely to have a lot of cases, due to the high percentage of Chinese residents. Would this - along with the impact of the bushfires - convince Chinese expats to consider Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide?
- If China's economy tanks, that's not great for resource-focused states like WA. Karratha property is definitely showing signs of life due to the number of projects in the pipeline. Will uncertainty about China disrupt this nascent recovery?

I'm still buying in Perth at the moment, but the above issues certainly give my pause for thought.

 

What is most likely to happen.

By the time winter finishes in China, the number of deaths and new cases will subside.

Australia will suffer from a negative gdp for first quarter.

in response spooked by the negative number,the Rba will cut ir again

the federal government in order to avoid being seen as the first government in 30 years to cause a recession will provide stimulus and forego the surplus

the Chinese once released from quarantine and totally lost their confidence in Chinese government will in droves seek to emigrate and park their capital overseas

Sydney and Melbourne properties will see mother of all increases in value to strastopheric heights

 

OK lets go there....the real impact is supply chain of goods from China...this will have a large impact. but a low of businesses carry about 3 months supply. If COVID-19 is not under control. China is up the creek!

Western governments will make the immigration process for Chinese to immigrate harder from a health screening perspective.

The property market is most at risk of losing steam in the Chinese dominated markets of Sydney and parts of Melbourne...parts of Brisbane.

The real issue is confidence..if that takes a hammering then Sydney (largest Chinese population/businesses) will bear the brunt. Melbourne has some Chinese influence..but there the Indians are more prevalent...so some cushion.

You may see feeder cities like Newcastle, Wollongong, Geelong, Ballarat take off as will Adelaide, some parts of Brisbane, and Perth.

Tassie had a lot of Chinese investment as of late..that may impact their market also.

This could be the shock...one needed. Squawwkkk.......

 

I was at 2 Auction in Sydney Sutherland Shire premium end . Their was no hesitation based on any virus .

People were going crazzy 2016 style.

It was scarry to watch one house go $160,000 over estimates and over any reasonable expectations.

 

Yep...lets hope it keeps going for 6 months..I need to get a few more on the market.

 

Its not the same nationally or even Sydney.
I was in South West and the results are completely different only 1 2 parties at auction and not alot of interest.

Seems block with Development appeal are being snapped up more so than just average houses.

 

Yes that is correct FHB stock is doing well so is downsizer and upgrader stock is doing well.

Inner West...Lower North Shore...Hills on fire.

 

key is quarantine, which is happening

vaccine this may be available by August

experts also claiming that seasonality will impact on virus, heat

we have seen serious breakout of various viruses before and managed these

personally i believe its a media beat up and over stated, hysteria sells papers

not at all worried

 

I think you will find same in Melb, fragmented market dependent on price point??

 

Or you could end up with a Chinese version of the GFC , they all stop spending money because of quarantine measures and a few weeks of no pay , followed by businesses that go bust and banks sitting on to much bad debt go under and then everyone stops lending to each other.
Our banks cannot get cheap money or interest rates go up due to a shortage of credit.

 

Shouldn’t south west fall into FHB price range? Noticed the nicer parts of Penrith are seeing properties snapped up quick but I’m told Liverpool and surrounding areas are struggling (friend looking to sell there none of my own research).

New builds and home and land packages in far flung areas seem to be the majority of FHB at the moment, not sure this is good for the market in general as these buyers will likely not be in a position to be upgrading for a very long time.

 

Tend to agree...Penriff is doing quite well so is the Druie.... interesting..

I think this being driven by FHB...downsizers.. and some upsizers.

I know that most investors are keeping the powder dry..a lot of them are exiting...

 

Liverpool Houses are going Ok,
not a lot of stock at all compared to same time last year and rents are slowly moving up.


Liverpool has a lot of new apartments coming online which is putting downward pressure on Apartments.
Please note at the same time. 100s of new cafes have opened and some developments are actually very nice. In the evening the cafes are full. This is a stark contrast to 10 years ago.

Home - The Paper Mill

Like the above Paper Mill is very high end.

 

Yep give it another 5 years...it will be similar to Parramatta.

Stock of apartments will be an ongoing issue similar to Parramatta....older ones be better.

 

Agreed
The major advantage the Liverpool apartments have is amazing affordability.


2 Bedroom apartments $350,000
5/116 Elizabeth Drive, Liverpool, NSW 2170

3 Bedroom newer Building $550,000
Address available on request, Liverpool

Sooo cheap and can commute to the city.


I agree there is a huge amount of stock coming on in Liverpool from a very low base and Livo is gentrifying . Young Arabs /Indians someAsians lotts of trendy cafes.




Getting back to Corona its on a slower burner in terms of Media. Media got a bit bored.

Lets see hot it pans out.