Worst suburbs to buy in 2016

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Barny, 12th Dec, 2015.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
Tags:
  1. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    16th Oct, 2015
    Posts:
    3,189
    Location:
    Australia
    Parramatta showing negative 14%. Good call.
     
    Whitecat and Jennifer Duke like this.
  2. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    16th Oct, 2015
    Posts:
    3,189
    Location:
    Australia
    Sydney market did well
     
  3. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,348
    Location:
    Sydney
    @Barny I think many of my high rise OTP recommendations; over a year on from my post; are pretty sound. Many of these OTP unit vals have come back either flat or negative to 2015-2016 actual purchase prices.

    As for the regionals, the only one of these I actually kept tabs on was/is Geelong (which I think I got wrong - it appeared to sprint forward another 5-7% in calendar 2016, depending on the suburb within it)
     
    Whitecat and Barny like this.
  4. Drgonzo

    Drgonzo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    237
    Location:
    Berry NSW
    Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne.
     
  5. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,149
    Location:
    Sydney
    I know Eric has a properties in Birkdale/Cleveland area...I think those suburbs didn't fair any better or worst then Logan...both just following a typical Brisbane cycle really
     
  6. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    16th Oct, 2015
    Posts:
    3,189
    Location:
    Australia
    ????
     
  7. Drgonzo

    Drgonzo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    237
    Location:
    Berry NSW
    All completely overhyped and the best gains are behind them.
     
  8. JL1

    JL1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Dec, 2016
    Posts:
    1,129
    Location:
    Australia
    Best gains are behind all states for the current cycle, which has been fuelled by falling interest rates, overseas migration, and jobs growth. All three contributors are slowing/have stopped.

    Counter argument for Melbourne is that despite the apartment boom, they are approving and building less houses per new person to the state than any other of the big 5 states. There is a solid pipeline of work for the next 3-5 years at least, and the government remains in surplus and able to further stimulate the economy if required. They had the best performing employment market by a long shot in 2016, basically making up the entire nation's jobs growth.

    The only risk to melbourne is that population growth falls considerably. I think that a fall from current levels is very likely, but given the strong economic fundamentals, i don't see a big downside risk to the housing market.

    As far as Australia goes for market potential, I would say that despite all gains, Melbourne actually remains in my top picks. It just depends which area/type of property, CBD apartments obviously being off the table.
     
    Michael Barnes likes this.
  9. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,565
    Location:
    On a Capital and Income Growth Safari
    Have a look at population growth projections for different Sydney LGAS.

    Within the growing areas, pick properties close to major urban economic/employment centres or train links ( 5-10 minutes walk ) to these centres and I don't think you could go too wrong.

    Sydney's population is booming but not all suburbs are growing at the same pace

    Projected population growth 2011 to 2036:

    • Camden - 284%
    • Parramatta - 105%
    • Hills - 97%

    ( from the linked article you can click on individual LGA stats )

    IMG_0419.jpg

    Projections from 2014 have been adjusted and new projections in 2016 are showing greater growth.

    IMG_0418.jpg

    IMG_0417.jpg
     

    Attached Files:

    WattleIdo likes this.
  10. JL1

    JL1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Dec, 2016
    Posts:
    1,129
    Location:
    Australia
    LGA growth forecasts are generally determined by rezoning and estimating the number of people that would live in the likely developments.

    It would be itneresting to see how the current prices stack up given that increases based on development value of land have started to peak in most areas. A good starting point would be to determine $/sqm land vs. target population density/sqm. Suburbs that come in considerably lower would show good opportunity for development value increase as infill takes shape.
     
  11. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    14,736
    Location:
    Sydney
    Lots of infilling already. It's now a case of knocking down houses and replacing with apartments, or turning sites like the one at Ermington near Putt Putt from unproductive to housing. I don't think there's too many of these Brownfield sites in Sydney though.
     
  12. JL1

    JL1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Dec, 2016
    Posts:
    1,129
    Location:
    Australia
    Exactly. That implies the values which can be achieved by increased population density forecasts have already been realised by developers valuing the land as a component value of each apartment that can be built on it
     
  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,784
    Location:
    My World
    Ha
    Logan on this list…… and look what has actually happened…… boom
     
    SE_T84 and Arthurark like this.
  14. thunderstrike888

    thunderstrike888 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    6th Jan, 2021
    Posts:
    2,018
    Location:
    Sydney
    HAHAHAHA - I love reading threads in hindsight. It just shows how ignorant some ppl where/are.

    Since the start if this thread - if you actually had ignored the downrampers on here and bought several in Logan or Western Sydney you'd be a multi millionaire today. LMFAO.

    This is why you never ever listen to strangers on public forums.
     
    SE_T84, Arthurark and datto like this.
  15. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    6,675
    Location:
    Mt Druuiitt
    Go the Druitt!
     
  16. Truly Exotic

    Truly Exotic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    21st Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    1,032
    Location:
    16.4944° S, 151.7364° W
    and a reason why you should never listen to those "experts" who quote hotspots

    how some of them can quote hotspots when virtually every suburb has gone up 30% and yet 8/10 of their predictions only gained 10%
     
    AndyPandy and MTR like this.
  17. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    8,572
    Location:
    Sid en e - olympic city
    The money markets, fed and rates etc, means everything has inflated....pretty much.

    The Perth mining town busts prob even look good now (someone was reading me stories of how it is good to buy there now....lol)
     
  18. AndyPandy

    AndyPandy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Feb, 2017
    Posts:
    607
    Location:
    Australia
    But it did effoll up to mid 2020. Knowing that, would you still buy there back in 2016? Or am I unrealistic to expect a "good investment" to start growing in 2 years of purchase?
     
  19. thunderstrike888

    thunderstrike888 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    6th Jan, 2021
    Posts:
    2,018
    Location:
    Sydney
    When I started buy in Logan I had a list of 30+ points as part of my due diligence of why it was a good time to buy. It included things from vacancy rates, to population growth, to household income, local employment and unemployment rates, to local GDP figures, gov investment, private investment......list goes on and on and myself visiting the area numerous times.

    I had done a tonne of research - literally hours and hours of due diligence calling the council, confirming info I read online. It took me ages in fact several weeks. After that I was 100% confident in buying in Logan.

    I'm sure 90%+ of ppl would not have done what I had done. If they know the complete picture I dont think there would be a single investor that would not have thought Logan was a excellent investment back in 2016/2017. Instead they wasted their time in here downramping the area for hours and hours instead of finding real reasons.

    Logan was already growing pre-pandemic. I already took out $100k equity in 2 homes just before the pandemic for places I got in 2016/2017. The pandemic merely escalated the growth immensely.
     
    SE_T84 and Arthurark like this.
  20. Arthurark

    Arthurark Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Aug, 2021
    Posts:
    440
    Location:
    Australia
    When I saw this topic at the top of the page “worst suburbs of 2016” I knew I was in for a treat.

    Page 1 of this thread alone is absolutely beautiful.

    this entire thread is a trophy to be cherished.
     
    SE_T84 and AndyPandy like this.

Buy Property Interstate WITHOUT Dropping $15k On Buyers Agents Each Time! Helping People Achieve PASSIVE INCOME Using Our Unique Data-Driven System, So You Can Confidently Buy Top 5% Growth & Cashflow Property, Anywhere In Australia