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World population over time

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Gockie, 17th Nov, 2016.

  1. Gockie

    Gockie Be the change you want to see in the world Premium Member

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    Amazing video by the American Natural history museum.
    To me something extremely interesting is seeing how very populated and well established China and India has been historically, and more recently, all of Asia.

    And also seeing that the world's population has exploded over just the past 200 years.....

     
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  2. Eric Wu

    Eric Wu Mortgage Broker Business Member

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  3. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    Hey Gockie,

    Great vid!

    Though I wouldn't describe China and India's populations as 'well established'. Both countries way-exceeded that point, eons ago!

    Both are ridiculouly overpopulated and unsustainable in a global context. I don't know what the solutions are (or if there even is one) but I believe based on data I've read an a number of books citing UN and IMF statistics that the world is way too overpopulated.

    I think we have reached a population tipping point in regards to available resources and ensuring that as many humans as possible have access to them. Whilst access to clean water, food, amd shelter have improved at a global level over the last 20 years which is great, people have been popping out way too many babies as resources decline, inefficient farming, overfishing, and clean water access/points all decline.

    India from what I've seen is using education as the tool to try and combat overpopulation. I.e. investing in 'doing the maths and logic' with poorly educated folks to try and banquish this culturally-embedded idea that "I need to have 9 kids so that equates to a greater chance that at least 1 will grow up and strike it rich/successful so they can support ME when I'm older"; to "no, it is better/smarter/less stressful for you to just have 1 ot maybe 2 children; invest the same time/energy/money in this kid as you would have, spread across 9 kids, and this one child will have a far greater chance of financial success than 9 poorly fed/educated ones ever will".

    There are many problems with this though. what irks me is the ingrained SELFISH belief in both China and India that a parent thinks it is their childs duty to fund/pay for their parents old age! I thought these countries are the new birthplaces of entrepreneurs, self-starters, and ambitious folks? If I had kids I would never ever just expect them to fund my own later years. I believe in self-reliance and would instill the same values in my children. So to me it is a cultural sense-of-entitlement thing that some cultures feel thet must reproduce so excessively.

    China obviously had (now slightly relaxed) the one child policy which helped and hindered. In both China and India the boy is favoured and the girl is a 'second chance draw' card :(

    Combined with abortion and gender-detection, a generation of majority-boys is growing up (and, no joke, FIGHTING in schools for any available girlfriends! too much competition due to gender-cleansing parental customs).

    Mother nature has a funny way of correcting things when humans try to fiddle too much around the edges!
     
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  4. Stoffo

    Stoffo Well-Known Member

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    Nice @Gockie
    Wish my investment chart had growth like that :D

    Kinda makes you wonder though :rolleyes:
    If we as a species don't make some sort of major scientific breakthroughs in the next 20-80 years, the population growth could well be our undoing o_O
     
  5. Gockie

    Gockie Be the change you want to see in the world Premium Member

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    I want cashflow. It appears my niche/speciality (at the moment) is short term lets...
    Commercial is something for me to also explore.

    The capital growth has come (and will continue - or at least be steady) but I think for me, cashflow is important right now.
     
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  6. Eric Wu

    Eric Wu Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    agree. When a good base residential portfolio is established, it is a good idea to seek better cash flow.
     
  7. trinity168

    trinity168 Well-Known Member

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    Nice writeup @C-mac. It is the same from the Philippines, small country, population 105 million, small middle class, lots of folks below poverty line, then there's the extremely filthy rich ... uber rich rich folks. Education is not a priority when you are hungry. :(
     
  8. highlighter

    highlighter Well-Known Member

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    Almost all of global growth is happening in Africa. Much depends on how quickly it occurs. The one to really watch for urbanisation and development will be Kenya.

    China and India both have aging populations, and China's working population is already in rapid decline. In 2030 their population pyramid will invert and they will become a nation of the aged. In fact by 2030 their aged population will increase 85%, and it's already pretty incredible. For all of these reasons, China's population is projected to be back below a billion by 2100, possibly much sooner. Within a decade their economies will almost certainly start to decline as a result. This is a really interesting look at some of China's economic cracks:

    India's economic growth is more solid than China's but is in decline, and given their low population growth rate this trend will probably continue.

    History shows ultra-rapid economic development is usually a disaster. Japan is a good example of this. China and India will be too.
     
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  9. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    Interesting video! Especially for China where there is such little publicly funded/provided aged care (i.e. health, mental health, housong etc.). China is such a cash-economy, hopefully all those oldies have been putting their cash under the mattress to keep it away from their government, looks like they'll need a fair bit od it to have a pleasent retirement/golden years time.

    Its no wonder that western economies with decent welfare, health/hospitals, pension, and publicly-funded aged care facilities, are in hot demand foe mature immigrants from China.

    I dont know enough about immigration laws here to make an informed comment, but I do wonder; just how many immigrants Australia allows for people aged 50+ (from any country).

    If people havent worked a career in this country and paid the taxes required throughout those years to help pump money into the system, surely they cant just arrive in this country at 55 or 60 and start accessing the paid benefits that pensioners and retirees who worked a career + contributed taxes to, their whole adult lives, can access?

    Surely there are checks in place to prevent such rorting?
     
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  10. Brickbybrick

    Brickbybrick Active Member

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    I'd like to think there is... but I doubt it...

    Quite scary when one sees how the rate has exponentiallly increased from 1 to 7 billion in just 200 years.
     
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  11. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    I just re-read what I wrote a couple of comments below.

    I wonder if China will do an India and cancel the larger bank-notes to flush out tax-dodgers, criminals, and corrupt folks?
     
  12. trinity168

    trinity168 Well-Known Member

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    For those who have the money, they move it elsewhere. ( And move it fast before the country clamps down)

    How can I bring my parents to Australia? | CMN Immigration Lawyers Australia
    Aged Parent visa (subclass 804)

    Waiting times can be as long as 30 years.
    From the link above, "However, getting an aged parent visa will not automatically mean a person will receive the age pension or social security payments in Australia. They usually need to wait two years for most social security payments and 10 years for age and disability pension payments."

    And, I remember seeing somewhere, the cost for one parent is $47K, both parents up to $100K. Not sure how medicare applies, cause, that is easily spent/cost with a heart bypass and less than a week's hospital stay.
     
  13. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    I think China has already clamped down on capital outflows quite significantly. Hence people being motivated to take the more extreme step of simply abandoning the country for greener pastures.

    My god, if Trump really does make good on his claim to slap Chinese imports with 45% tarriffs, that'd be a massive blow for China's economy. According to Al Jazeera; a whopping 41% of ALL Chinese exports go to North America (the bulk of this being the domestic USA). Even if Trump's 45% tax gets watered down to 10% or 15%, this will surely hurt China's economy. Scarier still is the fact that China's 'rising middle class' isn't rising fast enough! Meaning that if they can't sell goods at a premium to places like the US; then their own domestic demand for these goods won't be strong enough to support it.

    Thanks for the info on parental visa and the costs involved. Hopefully that helps minimise risk of this problem. As we know, a human's medical bills get exponentially more expensive; the closer to death they get, so hopefully our Medicare levies and taxes aren't paying for too many later-in-life freeloaders who have contributed little/zero to the Australian system in taxes!
     
  14. Cimbom

    Cimbom Well-Known Member

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    Random observation - why does Australia have so many yellow dots at the end (near year 2000) when we only have like 5 cities with populations over 1 million?
     
  15. Cimbom

    Cimbom Well-Known Member

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    The 30 year waiting list is for the cheap parent visa. The fees you've quoted above are for the contributory parent visa which is processed within 2-3 years I believe.