World Indices Roundup - Jan/Feb 2018 Major Top?

XJO Update

Target 1 for end of wave 5 posted yesterday has now been hit!

Look for evidence of a reversal early next week. If not, then target 2 comes in to play.

XJO Hourly


No Advice

 

lol the breakdown has gone straight to the first level predicted! Still slightly bullish this morning with no pullback as of yet. 2nd target may be in play again in near perfect date timing?

Great further reading in this weeks market whisperer.

 

@Cityman Yep, market made a beeline for that first level!

Since you mentioned it, here's a complimentary copy of The Market Whisperer for anyone who may be interested in more details. Important time to be 'aware' of the underlying market themes at present.

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/131ad...2b-0089-4b5f-82db-928707717264/MWN_9JUL18.pdf

 

Interesting article on US stocks by Dan Kemp, CEO of Morningstar Investment Management

US stock market offers worst returns for next decade - Morningstar.com.au

 

Note sure about this statement depending on one’s time frame:

In regard to longer term future expected returns for each country Star Capital Research is an excellent resource incase some here aren’t aware of it. And yes the US is looking potentially lack lustre over the next decade. I suppose this would make sense for those who believe in reversion to the mean:

StarCapital AG - Disclaimer

 

@Alex Straker I just had a light bulb moment, I now know why I like you so much. On your iofe website where you quote your gains they are all long positions. One of my favourite investment related quotes I once read went something like 'show me the shorters yachts'. Maybe another downside to my strategy but to date have only ever gone long, probably due to my buy and hold approach but alas still long.

How's this course coming along mate? Eager to learn more about TA.

 

Have to agree with you there, permanent is a long time!

 

@Nodrog agree that word 'permanent' bothered me too. Bit overly dramatic given that TA perspective shows (as does the trend) that despite some potentially nervous months ahead we are sill in the context of a long term bull market until around 2026.

@Silverson very cool observation and naturally the long side of equities is preferred for the simple fact that the quality shares in equities markets have a natural bias to trend higher over the long term. If I could summarize the whole approach I have developed it would be...

'The Art of Identifying Index Leading Stocks and Taking Price Advantage by Accumulating at the Low of a Correction"

Even without leverage you would be surprised at the kind of compounding rates my students and clients achieve regularly.

Regarding the course I have almost finished writing and producing the materials, had planned on starting sooner but should only be a matter of weeks now Appreciate how keen you are, would you like me to send you a small sampler video for review? Would be happy for you to post some thoughts here about it

 

Absolutely mate will pm you an email

 

@Silverson Got your PM, will shoot a little something across to you shortly sir

Been doing some work on how the next top is likely to play out for SP500 (SPY). It has been stuck in the mother of all triangles for several weeks and this is close to resolving.

I am using the SP500 futures contract known as the e-mini for this exercise. Pricing is a tiny bit different to SPY index but only by a couple of points.

There are multiple patterns available in this extended complex correction and this produces a couple of measured targets. My preferred wave count for the triangle pattern is the one in blue, there are alternate counts also on the chart. The preferred count produces a near perfect timing date resolution of 13JUL18 which matches with the XJO scenario.

Here is the Futures contract version of SP500, this has rejected 2797 in yesterday's trade.

SP500 e-mini (ES)


Pattern suggests this will top out between yesterday's high of 2797 and 2834 (2795 and 2832 on SPY index), this completes E wave of the triangle and the downside target then becomes 2534 - 2498 and can be even better defined once E wave has completed. Alternate Scenario (much less likely) is a breakout higher again and move to 3050.



No Advice

 

perfect timing @Alex Straker , was just about to post that it looks like the xjo has topped?

all looking very toppy at present.

 

This course sounds interesting to me too!

On the shorters - as they old saying goes stocks take the stairs up, but the jump out the window on the way down! You would never want to be a constant shorter, as simply put the market is going up for much longer periods of time than it falls. But if you catch the right fall...

On the morningstar article - what do they mean by permanent loss? Not overly clear, and doesnt seem like a headline grabbing article but simply must mean something else as it makes little sense.

 

July 13 seems to be a significant date for me, so much happening on that day.
Must be a sign

 

Also,,,,

Friday the 13th,

New Moon, AND

a Partial Solar Eclipse too for Australia, Pacific and Indian Ocean...


All just co-incidence of course


PS Expecting one last push higher for XJO

 

could be the mother of all trades....

You thinking could push past $2,834?

 

another week in the books, and it seems the XJO is struggling to surge past this 6300 level...

 

Quick Update...

SPY (chart below is ES #F futures contract, futures version of the SPY)


2,834 target was met and slightly exceeded. Have also noticed a new pattern setting up called a '3 drive in time' (the 1,2, 3 red numbers). This basically has 2 rules to qualify as a valid pattern...

1) The time cycles between highs are equal or very near to equal and
2) The extension highs following the retracement of waves 1 and 2 project to an accurate Fibonacci ratio AND the same ratio for both tops. Usually it's a 127.2% or 161.8% extension. In this case we have 161.8% and this gives us a FINAL target according to this pattern for ES #F of 2,859.5 (SPY pricing almost the same). Probable date range 2/8 - 8/8.

No advice

 

2859.5 target from the above post has now been hit. This is significant with the simultaneous completion of an impressive symmetrical 3 drive pattern plus wave E of a major bearish triangle. Triangle target to the downside is around 2,550-2,560

If this turns out to be a terminal wave as I believe it is, look for signs that a significant decline is setting in from here. This could last for come time (see original posts in the thread).



No advice

 

XJO has closed with its nose above 6300. I wonder if this is the last blastoff before the turn down?

Looks like a closing breakout of the tight range since july 6.

 

Looks like your on track again Alex..