World Indices Roundup - Jan/Feb 2018 Major Top?

Roger M doing his bit to add to the future bearish tone:

How to avoid being crunched

 

Almost everything of his I've read in the last 2 years has been bearish, he seems to be always trying to cite evidence to support his view

 

He's probably underperforming. Thats the default position when you are. Fundie sales 101.

 

That date 21-12-2018 ,it would be just after most of the div's would be paid..

 

If I can learn to buy and hold and keep a level head/pin back ears in the gloom like you do and can learn TA like Alex, fair chance there will documentaries on me in the future haha.
On a side note the stock section of a property forum is quickly becoming a super valuable tool for more reason then one. A sign of the times moving forward?

 

@willair @Nodrog @Silverson @sharon @VanillaSlice thanks to all for feedback, additional info and questions, you guys are awesome and I am so pleased you are getting something out of all this!

@Silverson thanks for following up on the TA education/mentoring group, stay tuned for an announcement. This project has been delayed a little but will get off the ground in the coming 2 months. I am very excited to say that another forum member and friend (no not Noddy!) who is far more tech savvy than myself has kindly come on board and is assisting with setting up our new TA education resources/mentoring group specifically geared towards PC'ers and let me be first to tell you it is going to be a fantastic offering for those wanting to develop and be part of a group that desires to continually improve on what I regard as the most valuable investor's skills on the planet. It won't be confined to TA and charting skills only, there will also be an emphasis on the psychology, risk management and how to take the safest route to success if you are a beginner.

This will not require any pre-knowledge as from all the feedback I am getting everyone wants me to start from the very basics with some 'no-brainer' type methods. The skills will progressively build and eventually go right through to the market geometry techniques. Invitations will go out when we are ready to launch.

As per previous post I believe we are at a pivotal timing point and this current high zone is kind of a 'make or break' level for many equities markets. I made a couple of adjustments to the geometric lines on some of my key charts and just wanted to share the updated weekly view on XJO.

Few things to note, attached red median line set 'handle' to the May 2017 pivot high and found that quarter division harmonics are showing nice frequency. Added the up-sloping green median line set off 3 recent major pivots (end of waves IV,V and A), this gives a median line 'crossover' right where the market sits now and potentially signals the zone for completion of corrective wave B. If this resistance fails (approx. 6110), another possibility to keep in mind is because wave A completed at a one quarterly harmonic past the red median line, the 'mirroring' principle suggests wave B may also complete at the quarterly harmonic just above the red upper median parallel (approx. 6150/6170).

Something of high significance is that there are 4 degrees of timing for period from 4 May to 11 May as a potential high to complete wave B.

All in all strong chance of an imminent top followed by a wave C decline. Wave C's are known to be the more violent ones so might be wise to strap yourself in with the popcorn for a while

XJO Updated Chart


No advice

 

Surfboard freshly waxed ready to ride the wave. The more violent the better. Bring it on! This pig is ready to feast.

 

@Alex Straker sounds great to me mate!
Psychology is the big thing, investor psychology/human psychology is something in my opinion that will never change, as long as there is money/a currency, there will be greed and fear. This will never change and if there is a study that gives historical evidence/research on past behavioural traits then I am all ears and eyes. If not for monetary benefit, for my personal appeasement.
Keep up the good work all!
Back to budget 2018 for me!

 

One only has to look at the entry price for CBA a few minutes ago,combine that with a simple media spill and another just below 3% from yesterday,sometimes you can learn and observe a lot by just watching..keep up the good work Alex..
CBA and ASIC agree $25m settlement in rate-rigging case

http://imagesignal.commsec.com.au/d...nZXNpZ25hbC9lcnJvcnBhZ2VzL3BkZmRlbGF5ZWQuanNw

 

The more pain the banks feel the happier I become....for multiple reasons

 

CBA didn't drop because of this announcement. Check out the other announcement of the day and it will make more sense why the 3% drop.

pinkboy

 

Read most of them,and as we both know how CBA has worked over the past ,then it will just play out the same..
BTW the daughters still holding the 1000 purchased for $94.00 invested inside the "DRP" even with all the positive uncertainty every day..

 

The time has come to take a closer look at what is going on with world indices again. It appears we are at or near some potentially major end of wave completions again on long term chart views. Despite the recent breakout above the previous high mark in Australian equities, there are some strong technical signs that another downturn in general world equities markets is imminent.

Co-incident with the technical signs is a growing disruptive force at the heart of the worlds financial systems. Some significant changes in world banking mechanisms are quietly but steadily progressing behind the scenes. Distributed Ledger Technology is being developed and adopted at a phenomenal rate and some analysts are foreseeing major disruptions to the 'world currency standard' status of the USD, this bears a lot more discussion elsewhere.

I first wrote about this 'engineered transition' for my clients many months ago when the Chinese Yuan was given SDR status by the IMF and effectively introduced to the basket of 'elite' currencies bearing this status. This was 'stage one' of the grand plan to wean the world off the USD and circumvent the need for worldwide trading of goods and services to forcibly involve currency conversion to USD in the process of transactions (dependency on the USD).

These changes may have more implications for financial markets than have been widely realised as yet. There are various theories around as to what is really going on and how much impact it will have. Some analysts believe the 1st July will be a key tipping point where the 'global elite' plan to accelerate this process with planned legislative and banking changes set to be rolled out. Others are downplaying the significance and believe the whole thing will happen so gradually it won't cause too much of a blip.

Considering a number of factors including credit markets continually tightening over many months plus recent developments in the Elliott patterns from my original post in this thread there is a good case building for another correction in equities worldwide. Given the significance of the changes in relation to the USD, the US markets are particularly worth paying attention to in the short term for signs of bearish action.

SPY


This is an updated SPY monthly chart (same one as my original post), we can see recent monthly candle has again rejected the red arcs (end of growth phase) and looks to be heading for a weak close for June. It is following bearish pattern expectations (given in the original post) at this stage. You saw what happened last time price hit the red arcs, going to be interesting if July turns bearish and takes out June's low.

FTSE


FTSE has just completed a magnificent 5 point reversal pattern (weekly chart). These patterns tend to signify a significant longer term change in trend. The top of this pattern was marked by a strong timing cluster centred around the week of 18 May which proved correct with the high coming during that week (22 May).

DAXX


DAXX has completed a wave B (weekly view). Similar to FTSE, the downturn centred around a timing cluster in the week of 18 May.

Clearly price action has turned quite bearish again recently on FTSE and DAXX. This is not unexpected, just continuing to fulfil the expectations for long term patterns explained in the OP.

No advice

 

Hi Alex, great to see your posts as always. How big would you anticipate this coming correction to be on XJO ? are things still looking to stabalise by Nov this year or likely to drag on till 2021 etc ? the recent bump hasn't been that bad so far for the bank stocks....are they looking to fall much further ?

 

@VanillaSlice Very good questions....if I was a psychic I would be happy to give you all the answers In the end, all we have are probabilities based on the clues available and the ability to prepare ourselves for what could be a great opportunity.

The same likely support areas from my previous posts still apply. So once again, here are the areas of XJO future support: 1) 5450/5550, 2) 5,000/5,100 and hopefully we get down to 3) 4,700/4800

Timing window for the next anticipated SPY major low has not changed from my OP: Oct-Dec 2018. Based on the pattern and timing line markers available at this stage, December looks most likely for the next major SPY low.

XJO timing for next low is more difficult to anticipate at the moment due to the recent breakout there is now an ambiguous Elliott wave count that needs to be resolved first. XJO could either still be in a wave B forming what is known as a 'running correction' OR this could still be an incomplete wave 5. Due to the patterns on other world indices all still being in (or completing) a wave B, the bias is towards XJO being in the same phase but we need more bars on the chart again before this will become clear

Re: Banks please see the thread 'A Closer Look at The Big 4' for info. Banks are a 'special case' due to recent RC and have all recently completed their Elliott pattern retracements. In 3 out of the 4 cases the December forecast buy levels were extremely accurate for the pattern completion lows, so we can assume for now they are following pattern expectations and are in a new uptrend (likely to be another long term 5 wave impulse set unfolding next). Banks have already been punished by the RC so even if general markets take a hit, they already have some negativity priced in and may in fact become attractive as a more defensive yield play.

No Advice

 

Getting some requests for XJO chart...

Here's the case for XJO forming a top early July.

1. Other world indices have turned down.

2. Very important to note....copper is falling hard and there is now a marked disparity in the correlation with XJO. Believe me, this has to resolve at some point! There is normally a slight delay between a turning point on copper and the correlated turning point on XJO. This can vary but will commonly be around 13 - 19 days (sometimes sooner).

Look at that last impulse down on copper, we are now coming up to the 13 - 19 day window for XJO to follow suit.

Relative Comparison Chart XJO vs HG (Copper)


3. XJO about to complete a wave 5


No Advice

 

thanks very much Alex

 

very interesting correlation with the XJO & Copper.

XJO has basically gone up and down on the same spot for about 10 trading days now - the longer it goes the stronger the breakout?

 

@Cityman good question there are a few ways to project the top, now that a bit more price action has developed, XJO is completing a converging triangle pattern (typical of a wave 4) as we speak.

The most accurate uses thrust range of the triangle.

This gives a target for XJO top of 6,269

XJO


Doubling the thrust range gives 6,362. These targets happen to fall closely in line with the resistance line clusters using wave structures of 1,2,3 and 4 to project the typical wave 5 end points using Fibonacci extensions and projections. For example wave 5 is most often either 0.618, 1.00 or 1.618 times the proportion of wave 1, wave 3-5 (combined) are most often either 1,618, 2.618 or 423.6 times the proportion of wave 2, etc etc.



And just for kicks here is what is going on with Copper.....massive displacement relative to XJO.

Expect some violence soon on XJO

XJO vs Copper Relative Comparison


No Advice