World Indices Roundup - Jan/Feb 2018 Major Top?

Great Stuff Alex, the outlook this kind of charting is producing looks invaluable for all sorts of investors.

Since this post, it seems both the XJO and SPY have set up reversal looking candles on the daily charts. Definitely watching like a hawk any confirmation of a reversal here.

 

Any updates Alex?.Most combined with low volume seem to be holding within the value range ,no big downside so far ..

 

Last night's trading has seen the triangle pattern significantly break to the downside...

 

Hi @Alex Straker - wondering if you have an update on the XJO chart?
Thanks again for your wonderful work sharing these charts, I am curious to see what your analysis suggests may be looming for XJO over the next few weeks/months.

 

@Ouga Sure bro Apologies to all for lack of posting recently, I am normally pretty busy but lately it's been insane!! Even so....my views and forecasts made right back in the first post remain consistent and we are just reaching one of the potentially important price/time zones for the year

Here's an XJO weekly and XAO monthly Gann chart. Will also throw in the DAXX and FTSE. Quite a few world indices have reached or got very close to some geometric support recently. The long term out look in equities markets is still down for a while IMO and it's interesting now that the world news has turned more negative lately but as I have been saying in many threads for a long time now - late march/April is important timing for a potentially significant low on indices and some individual stocks. Whether it's the last one this year is another question but always worth taking some price advantage where it clearly exists.

XJO has only recently rejected the red median line and will likely either pause and form a wedging type pattern here for a while or possibly form a small leg up.

XAO is sitting on the major horizontal support at 5,865, similar outlook for XAO as for XJO.

XJO


XAO Gann


FTSE


DAXX


No advice

 

Thanks for the up-date Alex,and I agree there was a entry point when one Bank went into the $71-59 range ,only time will tell..

 

Welcome @willair

SPY, XAO, XJO update

This retracement to the previous impulse down is likely now over and signs are that the downtrend could resume from here. Strong geometric resistance areas plus co-incidental timing lines on SPY.

SPY Daily


Other world indices are also at resistance areas including XAO, XJO.

XAO has retraced to touch the median line from below, this will act as resistance now.

XAO Monthly


XJO has retraced to the 50% harmonic on the red median set (dashed red line) and completed timing for a simple correction to the previous impulse down.

XJO weekly


No advice

 

Thanks again Alex ,for your time to post those charts,and as Oil prices have a strong correlations and move in sync with the equities markets ,it's going to be a interesting six months in a bear market..imho..

 

SPY has completed Wave C at the exact forecast price zone and within 1 day of the timing expected. 2,600 is next potential support (temporary IMO), further weakness expected ahead.

SPY


No advice

 

Thanks @Alex Straker. Very interesting and you've been spot on so far.

How much further down do you see this downtrend getting to?

 

Is XJO looking to be going in similar direction too Alex ?

 

@KDP tough one to answer but certainly deeper than it has been so far this year. If I had to pick 3 early areas of interest for downside target on SPY it would be 1) 2,500 (strong chance), 2) 2,300 (medium - strong chance) and 3) 1,900 (50/50 possibility at this stage, will be clearer as pattern develops).

SPY

Although XJO has been a little more bullish looking than SPY in recent days the hints are that it is about to end and personally I am expecting a bigger downside move next for multiple reasons. Part of this is the seasonal tendency for a sell off in May but more importantly the way the major Elliott patterns are unfolding still shows a bias for further downside this year. Next resistance for XJO is 6,000 area on daily chart and 6,055 area on weekly.

XJO Weekly Chart


One big hint that things are about to weaken again is that Copper has just turned down quite strongly.

This is a correlation chart comparing XJO with copper - very strong correlation, copper (blue line) tends to lead XJO (green line).



No advice

 

A

 

Thank you Alex!!!

If you were to pick 3 early areas of interest for XJO downside target as you did for SPY .....what would they be ?

Is there enough data at this stage yet to indicate whether the downturn will continue until October/November this year or through until 2020/2021 ?

 

Amazing looking chart the XJO - on a tear and pushing back at 6100 in a time where the banks and AMP are getting hammered in the mainstream press.

Thinking around this level could be a good short entry if it starts to taper off...

 

A lot hinges on on the US:

http://cuffelinks.com.au/wp-content/uploads/SB-Top-5-May-2018-PDF.pdf

 

Next couple weeks will be key, violence to the downside in this leg of the pattern will be a sign of true trouble ahead.

@VanillaSlice Still defining these downside targets as price structure develops.

Assuming the down leg does kick in again....for now the areas of XJO future support look to be 1) 5450/5550 2) 5,000/5,100 and hopefully we get down to 3) 4,700/4,800

Unless the pattern breaks, timing for 138.2% retracement of the preceding 5 waves up still says this downside will last until at least October this year. Beyond that to hard to say yet but if things go sour for longer then we could see a 2 year downturn or more. Bit early to be precise but this years major low looks potentially to be mid December 2018.

IMPORTANT

Ok, I did not intend to give the following information here but I have changed my mind as I would like to put it on record. I'm not prepared to show the chart work for this but for the record....here are some very important specific potential timing zones for a major pivots (these relate most strongly to US markets - specifically the DJI index. They will still have relevance for our Australian markets).

Couple of caveats: even though I am giving specific dates this type of early forecasting relies on repeated historical patterns. It is less accurate than geometric forecasting based on current price action. You need to allow a couple of weeks either side of the date given. The timing can be more precisely defined using geometric methods once we are closer to the actual time zone. Also inversions in cycles can mean a date for a major low may in fact turn out a major high.

Timing zones for potential major low:
21/12/2018
8/11/2019
22/5/2020

Timing zones for potential major high
24/1/2020
27/11/2020

I have many more of these mapped out as far ahead as 2030 but these are the important ones on our time frame of relevance to this current retracement. Again, these will relate strongest to the US markets but are a reasonable guide for ours.

 

@Alex Straker
I've said it once I'll say it again, love your passion! Literally can feel the energy in your posts. Would love to learn your craft. Do you touch on the basics of your charting work in the education products you provide?
I'll be honest when it comes to TA your the first name I think off due to the fact that I learnt from you what this whole TA is based on and all about!
Keep up the good work and sharing your passion with us. Oh and feel free to send us a pm if you wish to take on a long distance student haha!

 

@Alex Straker - thank you for sharing your predication.

I love reading about your analysis and following along with it.
Nope I haven't done anything with it - and barely understand it.
But - I am learning so much from your posts.

 

It’s unlikely you’ll get a better TA education than what Alex offers. The vast majority of TA stuff out there offered by others is useless nowadays with you likely to end up as shark bait.