World Indices Roundup - Jan/Feb 2018 Major Top?

Discussion in 'Sharemarket News & Market Analysis' started by Alex Straker, 4th Feb, 2018.

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  1. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    SPY Update
    SPY 15FEB18.png


    SPY CU 15FEB18.png


    No advice
     
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  2. jprops

    jprops Well-Known Member

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  3. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    Thanks @jprops Not sure what is causing that, I can see them ok.
     
  4. jprops

    jprops Well-Known Member

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    Fixed now. Must have been my connection. Ta
     
  5. VanillaSlice

    VanillaSlice Well-Known Member

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    Hi Alex,

    great charts, just wondering based on your post from Sunday at 11:57 PM, would the 'action reaction principle' occur for SP index this time say from 2011 high (ie 1349) to 2018 high of 2800 ... then an opposite equivalent drop (the reaction) occurs of similar magnitude etc ? any chance we can see the red, blue and green waves as well ? :)


     
  6. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @VanillaSlice Re: question, action-reaction principle doesn't work that way. Apologies, I don't think I am understanding your question properly. Maybe we can discuss via PM.
     
  7. Cityman

    Cityman Well-Known Member

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    Hey Alex, very interesting and wondering if you had any updates as to the current state of SPY?

    It looks to me that we could be at a critical juncture on this rebound/dead cat bounce with a solid shooting star formed yesterday. It either pushes through here, or retreats and tests the low of the 8th/9th.
     
  8. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @Cityman No time to give full answer now but agree that this could be close to end of Wave B around 2750/2800 and anticipating possible Wave C decline into strong timing mid March to early April :)

    Will see if I can find some time to post charts this evening.
     
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  9. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    Updates - Possibly close to interim high again

    SPY Daily
    SPY D 22FEB18.png

    XJO is likely to top out next at 5,968/6,011 zone and has already touched 5,973
    XJO W 22FEB18.png

    No advice
     
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  10. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    XJO Daily View - Strong Timing for top 28FEB18

    Price is most likely to go to one of 2 places to complete this B wave - 6011/16 OR a slightly 'messier' and wider zone of 6080/6110

    28FEB18 looks most likely for timing of the high at this stage (allow for 2 days maximum either side of timing zones).

    Alternative scenario: Should this B wave turn out to be an extended wave (longer and messier) it is possible that the high may not arrive until second half of March however my feeling is that it will more likely turn out to be 28FEB high then down to a low in second half of March.

    XJO Daily
    XJO 23FEB18.png

    No Advice
     
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  11. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    Last Warning

    Strong chance we are approaching another important top for many world indices again.

    XJO
    XJO 27FEB18.png

    SPY
    SPY 28FEB18.png


    No advice
     
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  12. pwt

    pwt Well-Known Member

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    Thanks @Alex Straker for sharing your work and making the calls. If the XJO do collapse, where do you see it heading to?
     
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  13. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @pwt welcome, always the million $ question ;)

    Posted some quite specific info earlier in the thread on this, will update when I have something more useful and bit more price action to go on. Nice strong reactions to the price and time zones I posted 23 FEB for these tops so if the script goes to plan, mid-late March is a zone to watch for next meaningful low. Whatever I say don't rely on it, do your own homework and always manage risk.

    XJO
    XJO 1MAR18.png

    SPY
    SPY 1MAR18.png

    No advice
     
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  14. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    If you have been following the thread, you will be aware that I promised to show results for the one month trading challenge in February (see earlier posts in thread),

    A little background info....if any of you out there have attempted to day trade currencies and spot gold you will have some appreciation of how difficult this type of trading is and the ridiculously high failure rate.

    Before taking a look please keep in mind I had very little time to pay this any attention and I don't enjoy or advocate day trading in general due to high level of stress and being tied to a screen at all sorts of odd hours (best times to day trade are when US markets open - this is late for us Aussies!). Only did this because I was asked to demonstrate a 10% return in one month on a real account. The account is with well known Australian broker IC markets on the MT4 trading platform. I detest MT4 platform but it was the simplest and quickest way to organise this exercise. Also worth noting I used much more aggressive leverage than usual to push the envelope on results.

    Please understand that I did not use market geometry for charting these trades, there is no way I could have done the chart work needed for 427 trades in 1 month! So I chose to use market profile instead where there is very little chart work needed, most indicators are automatic. This method is known amongst professionals to be a good one for day trading, however it is very difficult to learn to apply well and no where near as effective or accurate as my preferred longer term methods using higher time frames (relative strength, volatility and geometry) and I am not particularly accomplished as a market profile day trader. The results below may look impressive but quite honestly I was disappointed with the long flat period in account's equity curve (see graph on last page of statement). I am waaayyyyyyyyyyyy out of practice on market profile.


    Quick Stats (Goal set was 10% return in one month)

    Opening Balance: $49
    Number of Trades: 427
    Trading Days: 22 (included 31 Jan and 1 Mar, all trades were closed out at the end)
    Cleared Profit: $418
    Closing Balance: $467


    Percentage Return: 853% (one month)
    Percentage per Day: 38.7% per day



    Account Statement
    (multiple pages)
    Statement 317027 FEB 2018-1.jpg Statement 317027 FEB 2018-2.jpg Statement 317027 FEB 2018-3.jpg Statement 317027 FEB 2018-4.jpg Statement 317027 FEB 2018-5.jpg Statement 317027 FEB 2018-6.jpg Statement 317027 FEB 2018-7.jpg Statement 317027 FEB 2018-8.jpg Statement 317027 FEB 2018-9.jpg Statement 317027 FEB 2018-10.jpg
    Please don't come asking me to learn to day trade, no way would I advocate attempting to replicate this!! If you have a genuine desire to learn to read the market and acquire your own personal 'licence to print money' I suggest taking the time and dedication needed to learning my proprietary system and trading unleveraged until you really know your stuff and have proven beyond a doubt you are profitable over an extended period. Appreciate the good PC folk who are contacting me keen to learn. As many of you are aware a new education project will be announced soon by invitation only.

    No advice
     
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  15. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    That give everyone an idea ..38.7% per day and the flexibility in dealing with a economic slowdown..

    But i like to keep it down to less then 10 trades a year,and the 3 so far this year are in the above 5% down as of a few minutes ago..But as a few will find out in day traders terms in bear markets ,it's not how much you owe ..It's how you handle it..
     
  16. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    That looks like way too much work for me, but good on you for doing it. Out of interest, how much time did you put into the project?

    Personally I am not interested in day trading but your charting to pick better times to buy for long term accumulation is very interesting to me.
     
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  17. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    Yes it's a lot of work, and difficult to sustain high performance over a long period. It's also psychologically a lot more difficult when the numbers get bigger, naturally I would not have pushed the limits so hard if there was significant capital involved. The time spent is difficult to quantify but all I can say is that I am busier than ever with other client work this year and really only checked the charts sporadically for 10 minutes a few times a day then put in 1-2 hours hours most nights starting at 11.30pm QLD time at US market open.

    Applying charting and market reading skills to long term investing is a different story completely and good results well above the market averages are much more achievable with far less stress and time.
     
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  18. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Exactly what I am looking for. In a way it is low risk to me. If I pick a company for a long term hold and mess up ths timing for some reason, although I may have paid a little over the odds, I still have a solid asset in my portfolio that I plan to hold long term. Picking up that asset at slightly under the odds would be a bonus for me.
     
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  19. val

    val Well-Known Member

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    Very interesting Alex. I don't know what to look for in your charts but did this play out as expected? I had an order for SPYG at $33.90 which went through last night. I've read they're a good LIC to have on the US exchange.
     
  20. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    Important SPY Update

    High conviction we are close to a top again in world indices both in technical picture plus there is mounting evidence of professionals beginning to move some funds to cash or the short side of the market.

    Strong chance SPY will top out again around 2800 - 2830 early this week either 12 or 13 March 2018.


    This could precipitate a significant leg down if wave B of this retracement completes. Wave C's are known to be violent by nature so look for a strong turn down.

    Similar story on other world indices, strong timing occurring this week.

    SPY Daily
    SPY 11MAR18.png

    XJO Daily

    XJO 11MAR18.png

    And here (below) is the MAJOR hint you really need to pay attention to....look at the volume!!
    Smart money is kindly letting you know the game is up ;)

    BBUS Daily
    BBUS 11MAR18.png


    No advice
     
    Last edited: 11th Mar, 2018
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