World Indices Roundup - Jan/Feb 2018 Major Top?

Discussion in 'Sharemarket News & Market Analysis' started by Alex Straker, 4th Feb, 2018.

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  1. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    @Alex Straker, apologies for using the word “trading” in relation to your work. It goes way beyond that. In my posts I was trying to highlight that unless one is properly educated, being mentored in using the exceptional skills you teach and prepared to put in the work then the likelihood of success is low. That is some will see it as a get rich quick strategy, do a minimal amount of education then greed will take over resulting in the usual unhappy ending.

    As you’ve shown me privately the accuracy of the techniques is astonishing. Even with my previous TA background and experience in using Gann multiple time frames, swing trading techniques I’m still astounded with the accuracy of your method. As you’ve shown me I now understand why the vast majority of us who have applied Gann have had limited success. Very few will be aware of the unique application of scaling which has taken you many years of hard work, searching, study and application to master.
     
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  2. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I think it was Warren Buffett who said many times,"Only when the tides goes out do discover who's been swimming naked....

    Too some that statement sounds so simple,or from experience when CBA in the early quarter of 2009 had a massive sell-down below $30.00 when everyone had fears about the depth of the banking crisis..

    Then from memory late March CBA went above 30 bucks again,then within the next few months it recovered and went above $37..

    All one has to do it change the dates and $$ amounts and it's the same as what's happening right now..

    My trading style is very simple..One watches evaluates a particular company from the inside out several times and that can be 20 cents untested startups..Then there is only 3 questions to ask your self--oversold--undervalued--or expected to rise..

    Myself from what i read a very high % of investors and it does not matter what markets you invest in have maxed out on raw equity and built up a mountain of debt and for some that strategy has been liberating and worked well up to now..

    Warren Buffett is right,some who will find what is meant to be financially naked and realised the consequences only when it's too late..
     
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  3. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    I have 100's of long term, personally constructed Gann charts for many indices, stocks, currencies and commodities. Also have some hand drawn charts (part of my mentors required process was to hand draw certain techniques!). Some I am willing to share, some I am not. My long term XJO chart is one I do not wish to expose here, hope you understand. Here is a shorter term one from my client newsletter 'The Market Whisperer' that I first constructed last November 2016 using the seed impulse from the 2016 low that is showing beautiful harmonics so far. I really did not want to expose this here either, but since you asked so nicely here it is....hope you enjoy :)

    XJO GMM.png

    No Advice
     
  4. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @Nodrog no need to apologise my friend, we all having nothing but respect for what you say sir!

    To expand on this point a little my number one passion is actually not trading, it's the sheer beauty and endless fascination with the chart work, particularly some of the personal discoveries I have made. The vast majority of market participants have NO BUSINESS attempting to 'trade' as this concept is understood generally by the public.

    However using high quality TA information to make better investment decisions can be a highly appropriate and effective way to enhance long term accumulation returns with tactical partial de-weighting and re-weighting of holdings as well as potentially using some limited risk 'market insurance'.

    In my early days of pursuing TA skills (around 20 years ago) I have traded much too aggressively using high leverage, blown up 2 accounts, failed to make money for the first few years, lost a huge amount of sleep, suffered some of the worst stress of my life and I do NOT advocate aiming to use this information to become a 'trader' (as in high leverage futures, currencies etc). There are far more secure and SAFE ways to glean value from TA skills. Even beginner level skills can be effective when applied sensibly!

    Doing this 'live account challenge' project in Feb that I mentioned in other posts has reminded my of exactly why I will never go back to day trading, it sucks!! The results have been very pleasing so far and sure, the rewards are phenomenal for the rare individual who masters this path but for me the inevitable risks involved and stress factor are too much to sustain for a long period. The same applies for anyone wanting to keep on with a 'normal life' and good SANF.

    I see part of my mission here as to get the message out that TA is....

    A) not as random and useless as many believe and actually can be highly specific and targeted,
    B) does not necessarily need to equate with aggressive trading!!

    It is excellent to see how many fantastic and wise long term market players on this forum have worked out that steady accumulation of high quality assets is the best game in town. Clearly a genuine edge that enhances this approach can be gained from learning worthwhile TA methodologies (most are trash).

    Let me say that again....

    Acquiring high quality TA skills does not necessarily have to end in the goal of high leverage trading. The greed is the biggest problem and this is precisely why so many fail and then blame TA as being useless when the truth is that their money management (ie: essentially risk management) and psychology are probably the biggest issue.

    Here are the basics of how I would encourage anyone wanting to learn to add 'personally generated alpha' to their portfolio.

    1. Only use unleveraged domestic market (ASX) stocks as the 'vehicle' for at least 3 years until you have 100% proven track record of successful investing/market decision making arising from YOUR personal analysis. if you are any good even an unleveraged account will produce exciting results and start to open up your first real pinhole of light to the possibilities. Do not be tempted to skip the 3 year apprenticeship and jump in to leveraged trading, mark my words (and those of @Nodrog) you will get slaughtered!
    2. Narrow the universe of 'vehicles' down to stocks that you would normally accumulate as an investor. Good criteria include a reasonable yield, over $2 in price and currently strongly leading XJO. Even of you only use these criteria and never opened a chart you would fair quite well and be safe in the market.
    3. No need to use a stop loss with this approach or watch the market daily etc etc. In fact around an hour a week is normally plenty to devote to this approach providing your skills are up to it. Not using a stop loss is why no leverage for 3 years is so important! Your stop loss is the fact the research has been done on fundamentals of each stock and therefore you don't expect any of them will go out of business any time soon :)
    4. Limit total capital exposed to this part of your plan to a maximum of 5% in the early stages. If you are any good this will very quickly become a lot more significant.
    5. Always shift part of your profits down the scale of risk and in to 'no brainer' type of portfolio for the long term.

    This approach frees you up from most of the stresses faced by leveraged traders and allows you to focus on sharpening you personal skills for stock picking and looking for good profit targets to de-weight again. You are simply using the enhanced gains from TA to 'feed' your traditional wealth building plan for additional accumulation and income purposes over the long term.

    Using this unleveraged approach, even in the nastiest market conditions and with an unskilled beginner using a simple system and not making particularly great calls, the worst case would be to end up with a good quality portfolio of long term holds and a decent income yield. It would take a monumental balls up of your plan to lose money under those circumstances ;)

    Once skills are proven over the first 3 years active participation, only then do we consider taking any leverage. Even at this stage I would advocate staying with stocks and using a maximum of 30% margin or alternatively don't even sign up for a loan and use internally geared funds to get your leverage :0 There it is, I have said too much already ;)

    Sorry for long posts all over the place, hope this stuff is not boring the [email protected] out of y'all.
     
    Last edited: 11th Feb, 2018
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  5. Lemmy a fiver

    Lemmy a fiver Well-Known Member

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    Learning is never boring @Alex Straker
    Thanks for your continued thoughts on the markets, its much appreciated.
    Cheers.
     
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  6. VanillaSlice

    VanillaSlice Well-Known Member

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    Thank you Alex!!!! I totally undertand your hestitant to expose the long term XJO & much appreciate the work you've shared above. It's very kind of you :)

    These charts are awesome :)

     
    Last edited: 11th Feb, 2018
  7. SW9

    SW9 New Member

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    Hi Alex, great chart, thanks for sharing - the more you look at it the more you get from it. Quick quesiton, if one was to continue the bottom dashed blue line back in time, would it touch the major dips in June 12 and March 09?
     
  8. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @SW9 Thanks, although they look complex believe me every line and marking means something ;) Not sure about the alignment with prior lows.....it's possible. Here's the zoomed out view with some of my prior line work still on the chart.

    The purple and green scaled vectors plus reflected harmonic lines and the 'action reaction principle' (based on Newton's law that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction) have caught every single high and low to perfection (and in advance) since the GFC began including the major low in March 2009.

    I have also removed some of the earlier line work to make it less confusing and just left the essence of the harmonic reactions. The major purple vector that represents the pre GFC bull run from low to high and all the associated geometry was first drawn on the chart in Feb 2008, 13 months prior to the March 2009 GFC low!

    Note: the scaling in the first chart shown is relevant to the latest Gann square overlay which tells me the scaled harmonics needed to use the recent seed vector from 2016 low, so this scaling you see (relationship/ratio between X and Y axis or in other words the relationship between price and time) is wrong for correctly viewing all those previous action reaction vector sets (purple and green sets).

    Scaling needs to be periodically reset on the chart to incorporate the latest relevant seed harmonics. The 2 charts that follow on from the first one show the correct scaling for each set so you can visualise what I mean about the 'action-reaction' principle.

    XAO
    XJO Wide View 9FEB18.png

    XJO GFC Low Harmonics FEB18.png

    XJO 2016 Low Harmonics FEB18.png
    No Advice
     
    Last edited: 11th Feb, 2018
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  9. BPhil

    BPhil Well-Known Member

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    Thank you for the long and detailed replies Alex. In the interests of balance, can you show us any historical answers where your charting procedure made a wildly inaccurate prediction?
     
  10. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @BPhil you're welcome.

    Regarding your question that is a very strange request pal. Hmmmmmmmm

    I have provided more than enough info on here and gone waaaaaayyyyyyyy beyond my line of better judgement as to how much I am giving away. Again, if you spend 5 mins doing a search you will see a HUGE number of market forecasts with highly specific timing and price levels that I made in advance here (naturally I have no idea at that point whether they will be successful, just my own views) and you can see for yourself how many worked.

    You are sure to see some forecasts that do not work out as expected if you keep following my posts. Success in the market (investing/trading whatever) is NOT about being right all the time, it is about managing risk. If risk vs reward is managed well a trader can be wrong 70% of the time and make massive gains. Fortunately my batting average is not that poor.

    I could show you anything you like looking retrospectively but what is the point? Those retrospective charts I provided earlier were only in answer to a question. I much prefer to make calls in advance, this is the only way to provide real, undeniable proof of the value of this information. If you don't believe I have done this to your satisfaction move on please. Don't ask me to devalue my own work and track record.
     
    Last edited: 13th Feb, 2018
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  11. Silverson

    Silverson Well-Known Member

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    @Alex Straker, when you feel it's time you take on a mentoring role please feel free to pm me
    I think what your doing is fantastic and thank you for sharing it. I always take my hat off to anyone who is so passionate about something that they literally live/breath it and with you I truly feel that is what you do.
     
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  12. AndyPandy

    AndyPandy Well-Known Member

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    @Alex Straker Many respected members on here have high regard for your knowledge, so you must be the real deal. However as someone running a business named 'how to retire early', I am curious to know how far away from retirement are you? No offence intended here, just a question that any potential client would have. I understand that you probably like what you do etc, but you're still running a business and with your ability to read the markets etc, shouldn't you be on a beach somewhere?
     
  13. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @Silverson Thank you brother, I know you have been with me for a while.

    You are now on the invitation list ;)

    Natural law.png
     
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  14. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    92CB3C80-DB6D-4006-B99E-74E4ADAFA2C4.jpeg

    In my case please feel free to donate quality home brew:).
     
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  15. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @AndyPandy Well aren't you a cheeky bugger ;) ....I'm quite a private person by nature and really don't like talking about this for several reasons, you do realise that if I disclose this you are obliged to become a client :eek:

    BTW is this normally your first question to a stranger? Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...... the blunt questions here are unbelievable at times especially for someone with a very small post count. I almost posted something quite different but I generally like to think positively of people and their motives even when I suspect differently so in answering this I am doing my best to hold back my first response and give you the benefit of the doubt.

    In the old language you could say I am massively overfunded now and my net wealth (including family trusts, business assets and SMSF) is on track to increase during this year by well over $1.5M. Roughly 550k inside SMSF and 8M in assets outside super including business interests and debt free PPOR. Currently only 2 properties outside super and one held inside SMSF. We have bought and sold LOTS of them though and prefer to only keep the high end ones for now. So all in all not the most amount of money in the world, but I am struggling along ok. Just pulled 50k down from my crypto account (ask Rolf Latham, he knows) and there's still quite a bit left in there :) This amount all came from an original speculation with 3k back in 2013 and then shorting BTC at the top of the market (see various Crypto threads where I publically called exactly every move I was making in Crypto ahead of time, despite being repeatedly chastised by the perma-bulls who were all high on greed and ripe for the professionals to pick them off while they were sleeping and dreaming of the day BTC=100k.

    We are in negotiations with several large corporates this year for a another major software deal (one is already done with a well known publically listed company). This does involve myself and 3 other business partners so it's always split 4 ways, depending how things go there may be other multi-millon dollar contracts by the end of this year.

    No offence, but tell you what...... you really should disclose your real name and profile details and try having at least a minimal amount of conversation with people before asking a question like that.

    Also, I think you may have mistaken me for someone 'working' towards 'retirement'....

    I'm no caged human, I'm a free range!! :D

    Freerange-chickens.jpg
     
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  16. AndyPandy

    AndyPandy Well-Known Member

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    Well done! Thanks for the response. I'm sorry but it had to be asked.
    I will get in touch with you, however I probably won't introduce myself as andypandy :p
     
  17. Kassy

    Kassy Well-Known Member

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    I aspire to be free range, still a caged chicken for now...
     
  18. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    I’d like to think I’m free ranging but my wife keeps giving me work to do:(.
     
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  19. Silverson

    Silverson Well-Known Member

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    Thanks mate, eagerly awaiting this invitation!
    Keep doing what you love and love what your doing!
     
  20. Heinz57

    Heinz57 Well-Known Member

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    Oh it's obvious you are a friend of Rolf's - you both speak in Cryptic crossword clues ( or maybe that should be Crypto)
     
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