World Indices Roundup - Jan/Feb 2018 Major Top?

Seems that way, nothing makes sense and most markets at all time highs! If we do have a GFC or even worse GFD I bet it will be short lived as money will be printed to prop the market

 

World Indices Updates

Still early days, please forgive me for repeating this but I expect this downturn to play out for some time yet. The technical picture developing is just too strong to ignore.

Most evidence is pointing to the following as important timing zones to be aware of a potential low or high. Not much to go on yet so this is very early stages of expectations and could change once more bars are on the chart.

Short term - Mid March/April 2018, particularly week of 16th March
Medium Term - October/November 2018
Long term - March 2020/early 2021 but this could change depending on future development

XJO looks interesting around week beginning 16th March and price zone 5400/5500

This would be an early entry but none the less worth taking, especially on individually researched stock opportunities that have coinciding lows. My expectation is a strong probability of trending down (or repeated volatile swings into a similar low zone) until at least October/November this year, and worst case possibly through until 2020/2021. If that happens watch for the public to capitulate and the media to psychologically manipulate 'heavy gloom' in to their minds. When it smells like everyone has 'given up' it's time to look for bargains.


SPY






DAXX



FTSE



XJO



Good luck out there and don't fall for the 'stock market will never be the same again' garbage in the media, this is the opportunity of a lifetime.

No advice

 

Hi Alex,

do you have an opinion on how the AUD will perform over this period?

 

@bamp thanks for the question I would really only rather stay with equities markets discussion for now and high conviction ideas rather than throw in half baked comments. Better to be a meaningful specific than a wandering generality

Currency markets have more moving parts to understand than stocks and require a much more thorough examination of monetary policy, economic data, fundamentals, interest rates, current economic calendar news and media comments by senior financial figureheads before considering the technical picture plus they also react more violently to a range of factors than most markets.

Having said all that, I did start a little project in the beginning of February that might interest you. Was challenged by someone (who shall remain nameless) to demonstrate trading a small real money account for one month and achieve a minimum 10% return, if there is any interest I am happy to show results at the end of Feb Most important aspect of a trading/investing plan - the money management algo and position sizing. The opening balance of the account was $40, see how we go

This project may fail & I don't want to give people the wrong idea though, day trading aggressively like this is about as tough as it gets and 95% of day traders fail so be warned that I don't do this to encourage others to do it. I generally don't day trade and definitely don't encourage it at all!!

I am taking some currency positions in this account but not AUDUSD at this stage. Main weapons of choice are EURUSD, XAUUSD (Spot Gold) and maybe BTCUSD.

 

Feb/March

 

Are you poking the TA’s again @Nodrog

 

No.

 

Noddy? nah.....never I did share something pretty special with the great one recently though

....and it wasn't out of a bottle

 

Very special indeed. I’m too lazy and financially well off nowadays to resume trading but anyone wanting to learn trading properly and to have any chance of making a decent profit should seriously consider looking into Alex’s courses. The techniques and tools used are extraordinary.

A long time ago I spent years studying Trading including TA, charting, market and personal psychology, money management etc including undertaking professional examinable courses but still struggled to make any serious money with it over time.

The vast majority of trading education out there is rubbish. Honestly unless you have a serious edge usually only learnt from a professional trader who is using unique tools and strategies you might as well just flush any funds you’re intending to use for trading down the dunny and save yourself a lot of time and psychological pain.

I’ve had trading friends / acquaintances lose tens / hundreds of thousands of dollars especially when trading Futures. I myself watched my Futures account drops tens of thousands of dollars in an instant when the **** hit the fan and price spiked way past my stop loss. That’s when my hair started turning grey.

It’s unlikely you will find anyone else teaching the unique trading and charting techniques used and taught by Alex. The relatively small amount of money spent getting educated properly will be extremely well spent. Without this knowledge you’ll likely get eaten alive by the other professional traders. That said, expect to put in a lot of work learning this stuff especially the psychological aspect.

I get no kickback in relation to any of this and as always I’m not liscenced to give advice.

 

Apologies my bad

 

No offense to the OP intended, but.... isn't this sort of analysis comparable to reading tea leaves in terms of likelihood of making correct projections?

 

The recent market correction smacked a couple of volatility traders

Former Target manager aims to bounce back with $600,000 bet against volatility

XIV trader: ‘I’ve lost $4 million, 3 years of work and other people’s money

From Reddit
Went to the army for 2 years, got a small inheritance from my grand aunt that passed away, traded pretty well for the first year, raised a lot of capital from friends and family, continued to trade highly leveraged positions. Also Im from Singapore, so no capital gains tax.

 

It’s a probability game. Staying in the game long enough to win is key. Alex’s entry analysis is second to none. But that’s the easier part. Psychology and money management is just as or even more important that that. But I’m old school. Fortunately that is also a key teaching in Alex’s courses. Mentorship is even more important is dealing with psychology.

You only have to visit Share forums and / or read the “What’s Cheap on ASx” to see how addictive trying to pick winners is. It’s human Nature. Best educate yourself with the best available because I can assure they’ll need it! In the real world you’ll get slaughtered otherwise.

 

But don't you do the total opposite of this with your LIC strategy ^^

 

@Nodrog is clearly suggesting that he believes that Alex is someone whom people who wish to follow the TA path should learn from.

Whether he does this himself is not the point.

 

Trading is bloody stressful. Some will be successful but only a very small percentage. I have no desire to relive that experience. It takes a lot of hard work, education, emotional strength, an understanding partner and a heap of passion. Just as indexers always argue the law of averages it would be silly to suggest that there aren’t exceptions to the rule. Just realise that being that exception requires not only excellent education but exceptional personal attributes.

Some individuals are just suited to be traders. Alex loves trading like you wouldn’t believe. For the right person it can be an incredibly rewarding persuit. If you love something it’s not work.

As @Alex Straker himself, @The Falcon and even my humble self would suggest if you’re going to indulge in higher risk, time consuming strategies then treat this as a separate smaller component to your families retirement investment strategy. Get the mix wrong then you might regret it.

So yes slow Accumulation of LICs has been my strategy for a long time now. For those who want to have a go at trading I’m Just offering my personal view. Like a number of others here I had to give Trading a go. Human nature is such we think we can be above average. Some will achieve this but unfortunately I realised I’m average at best so I invest accordingly.

 

@BPhil I absolutely take no offense and this is an outstanding question!! I have posted on this kind of topic before and fully appreciate how difficult it is to accept the proposition that past information can be used to accurately forecast the future. Of course the truth is that no one can forecast markets with 100% certainty.....but if you care to research my track record, you will see the proof that you absolutely CAN develop your skills to a point where the probabilities are strongly on your side

Personally I could not think of a better, more convenient or more efficient way to make a meaningful impact on your personal financial future (as an investor OR trader) than learning to read and mark up charts well. Of course that view stems from my personal appreciation of just how astonishingly accurate the Gann/Elliott/Andrews methodology can be when applied well and put together with other pieces of the puzzle such as fundamental bias, relative strength, statistical volatility etc.

My OP is time and date stamped, hopefully you realise this OP was posted before the current fall began. I have also posted the same SPY forecasts back in December with these price and time levels already mapped out. This was well before price got anywhere near the recent high and made the extremely violent reversal we just saw unfolding. The highest price resistance level was forecast as 2,881 and timing to occur in December/January, actual high came in at 2,873 during January. Must be just luck I guess

The Gann SPY chart has been giving me an extremely accurate source of market information since I first created it from the 'seed move' of the 5 wave impulse set back in 2010!! The truth would blow your mind, I could show you how the same single harmonic vector technique (a strictly mathematical application of scaling) has absolutely nailed EVERY major low on XAO post GFC and we are talking a level of perfection here many of you would struggle to believe!! @Nodrog and I have spoken privately at length and he has been exposed to some of the underlying mathematics of my Gann work (which is based on Pythagoras theorem) and can verify this technique is strictly mathematical, repeatable and astonishingly accurate. But what makes it all fascinating beyond belief is the relationships you discover between the numbers and geometry themselves, particularly with the scaled geometry. I know a lot you still don't really get what I mean by that yet and that's ok, it's impossible to give you an appreciation of this 'elegance' without a lengthy period of study and exposing certain key concepts that are reserved to be passed from mentor to student. Part of the reason I don't share more of my work here is that many are just not ready to see or accept it for what it is and clearly need a gentle introduction to these 'new' ideas and possibilities. Plus of course it would not be fair to my clients who are members to share everything here.

In truth these concepts were first developed by Gann over 100 years ago, but his legacy is an extraordinary and sometimes bizarre seeming trail of breadcrumbs to try and follow without help.



As I have repeatedly said in various threads, TA is not all about becoming a 'trader' either, it's a case of being better educated about the growth patterns of markets and therefore being able to improve on the whole decision making process of investing in all senses of the word! Well honed TA skills have equally as much validity for a long term investor as they do for a short term trader.

Believe me in the early stages of trying to understand this stuff it all looked hopelessly random to me too. This a difficult bias to overcome when you have been trained to think this way and told by 'experts' that market movement is all random so don't bother trying to understand it. I am not here to try and convince anyone of anything I simply don't have the time or desire to continually argue the validity of this work and it pleases me greatly to know a certain percentage will deny it. Inevitably you can only succeed in investing/trading according to your own belief systems. All I can suggest is to research my forecasting track record left publicly for all to see here in several threads. There are many examples out there now and seeing is believing I will also publish the track record of a small live account at the end of February as mentioned in a previous post.

 

Hi Alex,

Thanks for sharing these charts. They are amazing

Would you have a chart to share for XJO from 2008 - 2026 as you've done above for S&P 500 ?
(with the red/green waves representing growth phases etc)

 

You convinced me.
I thought I didn’t understand 98% of wtf you were taking about. It’s actually 99.98%

My error. But I’m pretty sure your Pythagoras chart had already told you that.


Blacky