World Indices Roundup - Jan/Feb 2018 Major Top?

Discussion in 'Sharemarket News & Market Analysis' started by Alex Straker, 4th Feb, 2018.

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  1. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Rest assured once real money is on the line I’m sure it won’t be boring for some. This will sort the wanabees from those truely dedicated both financially and psychologically.
     
  2. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    Yep.

    Brent Penfold, Author of "Universal Principals of Successful Trading" has a saying for the how the market likes to treat people - it's called maximum cruelty.
     
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  3. BKRinvesting

    BKRinvesting Well-Known Member

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    Hey mate,
    Thanks for clearing that up.

    Just a thought - as someone that has completed courses 1-3, and who is slowly practicing the skills, would you consider an 'intermediate package', i.e. the deals on the software and newsletter (or newsletter extension for those already subscribed ;) )
     
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  4. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @BKRinvesting Welcome bro, please call me for a chat and we will work something out.
     
  5. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    XAO has rallied off the 5,721 low as expected.
    upload_2018-11-1_18-27-0.png

    Now let's look at XJO (different pricing to XAO).

    XJO rally is due to end between 16th Nov and 30th Nov and would be unlikely to exceed 6,100 area. There are multiple resistance levels at 5,940/6,020/6,100. A precise 61.8% retracement (classic retracement level for a B wave) of the downward impulse leg would take XJO to 6,087. Wave A of retracement is complete now, look closely and you will see that this wave A also subdivides in a 5 wave impulse set.

    6,087 area is very close to the junction of the green median line and red lower median parallel which is the major harmonic 'resonance' point of the retracement (tends to attract price back to these lines). If wave B completes as expected you will see a messy retracement with a few swings back and forward work it's way back up to the resistance areas, then a strong new daily impulse candle reject from one of them. After updating the chart with the new green median line set, 6,100 is looking likely at this stage. Weekly time counts suggest wave B is likely to complete in the week beginning 23 Nov (see red vertical line).

    XJO Weekly
    upload_2018-11-1_19-36-7.png

    The daily view using time count clusters gives clusters at the precise dates of 15 Nov & 23 Nov, allow for a day or two either side of these dates.

    XJO Daily
    upload_2018-11-1_20-14-10.png

    Wave C is often the most violent of all of them, last chance to hedge in case of a stronger downturn will be when wave B completes.

    No Advice
     

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    Last edited: 1st Nov, 2018
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  6. Zenith Chaos

    Zenith Chaos Well-Known Member

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    @Alex Straker thanks for your posts. Can I ask what you mean by "seven degrees of hell"? Is that the biggest fall? How does it play out in terms of dropping, rising, dropping or just keeps dropping remorselessly?

    I'm interested in your analysis. It looks like it models naturally occurring phenomenon - "what goes up must come down". Not sure why there are only 5 waves in a cycle but that makes sense - as a once avid surfer you wait through sets of waves. Problem is that on a day that number may be 10 waves but on a big day it might be 15.

    Please buzz me about the cost of your course. I'm not going to trade or change my strategy but if it could help me predict the bottom more accurately then that would be worth the effort.
     
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  7. dunno

    dunno Well-Known Member

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    Take one part 'non predictive' passive startegy and add one part 'predictive' active strategy.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Anyone can see the death cross that occurred on the above chart,and bear bull markets they move the market every day not simple standalone investors ..The only way is trade with them -not in the middle -or even worse looking at the recent sales volumes against them..
     
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  9. itsmescottyc

    itsmescottyc Well-Known Member

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    @Alex Straker This rally seems to be right on course as predicted.
     
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  10. Sticky

    Sticky Well-Known Member

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    He said resistance at 5940, it only went to 5932... he was way off :eek::p
    I am baffled and amazed at how accurate he is again and again.
    Thankyou for sharing @Alex Straker , looking forward to your next update :)
     
  11. Zenith Chaos

    Zenith Chaos Well-Known Member

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    I thought it was supposed to be all the way down from here. Any confirmation?
     
  12. Hodor

    Hodor Well-Known Member

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  13. Zenith Chaos

    Zenith Chaos Well-Known Member

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    I meant all the way down once it hit the next resistance between 5900 and 6000.
     
  14. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    XJO
    upload_2018-11-12_13-10-35.png \

    Cheers @Sticky just want to say to everyone thanks for the positive support of my work, I enjoy the topic (surprise surprise!) and it's rewarding for me helping others start to see how exciting and intriguing these methods are. Complex to learn but worth the pursuit :) It is great to hear that some real inspiration (and hopefully profit for some) is coming from all this!

    Of course I know you guys are smart and realise this but I will say it anyway.......just be clear that you can't rely on my analysis (or anyone else's) 100% of the time, markets are just too fickle. I work hard to understand the probabilities, but there are NO certainties!

    Again thanks for the interest!

    Possibly even 6,100 :) Mid-late November if the pattern holds, only thing that could interfere with another leg down is the 'Santa rally' effect. From all hints it looks more likely the 5,624 low will get taken out at some point.
     
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  15. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    ........make that 1 point off ;) :cool::)

    XJO
    upload_2018-11-14_17-18-31.png

    Wouldn't be surprised with the lift in volatility we are seeing to see XJO could suddenly shoot back up to 6,000 area. If this breakdown had occurred closer to the 15th Nov I would be more convinced it will continue down but it seems a little too early to be final. Either way I am a happy camper because the market impulse is clearly still down at this stage so patterns are holding to expectations :)
     
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  16. Pleep

    Pleep Well-Known Member

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    @Alex Straker would be fascinating to see an update on the XJO. However I understand you’d be quite busy and sharing this with your new mentees in your course!
     
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  17. Pleep

    Pleep Well-Known Member

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    We’re getting close to your 5,540 level today @Alex Straker.
    Couldn’t help but come back to this thread and check your chart.
    Edit: looks like it got close yesterday and may rally from the resistance level... my bloody data didn’t refresh I was looking at yesterday.
     
  18. itsmescottyc

    itsmescottyc Well-Known Member

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    @Pleep everything certainly seems to be ticking along as forecast, it’s very interesting to watch from the sidelines.

    @Alex Straker the whole year seems to have panned out pretty much as per your forecasts, excellent stuff! We now seem to be hovering around the 5600-5700 XJO level so I’m just sat back waiting for ‘all hell to break loose’

    Do you have any EOY charting updates, and potentially any thoughts on what 2019 holds? Things are certainly looking bearish across the globe at the moment.
     
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  19. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @itsmescottyc yeh this violence is awesome.....don't ya' love it when a plan comes together!! ;)

    EOY update on SPY & XJO

    First and importantly....

    SPY
    upload_2018-12-23_19-45-24.png

    SPY has a good chance of eventually terminating this current wave A down around 2,242 and most probably in January. This would produce a classic 61.8% retracement of previous impulse wave 5. NOTE: This is NOT the expected final low of the current bear market just completion of a wave A meaning we have B and C to go at a minimum.

    Early call for possible final low for this bear leg is 1,803/1,835 area either around June or December 2019.

    XJO
    upload_2018-12-23_20-10-57.png

    XJO likely to terminate this Wave A around 5,343, most likely Jan/Feb 2019. Similar to SPY we still have a B and C to go.

    Markets usually trade on low volume at this time of year and can be slow over the silly season, there is a good chance they will drift slightly higher before heading down in to these targets.

    No Advice




    {Note from mods - this thread continues here: World Indices Roundup 2019}
     
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