World Indices Roundup 2021

@TickerHound , what does it mean for your last post? Thank you.

 

What was the volume comparison, looks to be on about 1/5 the volume compared to Sept though.
Some naughty over leveraged traders getting flushed out by the looks?

 

The 50 DMA (and the 10 week average on the weekly chart) are often seen as key areas of interest as that is where institutional investors will often start a position, or add to an existing position, if they want to get in.

 

Volume was higher than average. We can only really say more buyers than sellers at this point in time. We can only speculate on why TBH.

 

Hi Alex, I come across the sale page of the 2 volume of book "pendulum motion" and "golden speed" from Institute of Cosmological Economics

I'm wondering are you the actual author of the 2 books?

 

Gold has been forming a large base. Something to watch, as well as resources in general:

 

XJO

In my last post (#43) I said that the topping process for XJO would be delayed if the diametric I referred to morphed into a symmetrical, a nine-wave structure. This is what I believe has happened. My observations tell me that the end of that nine-wave structure (of Minute wave degree) I see is fast approaching. I see a contracting triangle forming as the very last part of Minuette wave (i). This would mean that wave (i) finishes below the highest high of 16 June 2021. If this plays out a dramatic fall will commence and break of critical levels would signal a change in trend.

Price and time similarity must exist for seven of nine waves for a wave structure to be considered a symmetrical. Additionally the duration of wave (i) should be longer than the combined duration of waves (f) + (g) + (h) (refer red boxes on chart). The duration of wave (f) was longer than that of (a), (b), (c) and (d) + (e) but remains within 1.618x, so time similarity is present. Wave (g)’s duration was a little shorter and wave (h)’s a little longer but still within limits. If I was to rule out wave (a) as not being similar in price, there is still price similarity of seven waves ( (b) – (h) ).

I’m on alert for an important turn to occur this month, any time between now and the end of month. If this turn occurs, it could mark the end of wave B. Another option would be that it marks the start of a second X wave, Minute wave ((x)). This would be a corrective structure and once this completes it would be followed by a last but sustained push to a new high to complete the wave of next higher degree. Other interpretations are possible but I don't want to create confusion by discussing them.

 

I agree with what @TickerHound has said. Additionally forecasting the market behaviour of stock indices etc. is entirely different to trading/investing.

 

SPX

In post #42 I showed my then wave count for SPX showing an expanding triangle forming, Minute waves ((a)) – ((e)). The duration of wave ((e)) went on to become too long and the count for a triangle was negated. The logical way to approach this is to assess whether the five-wave structure morphed into a seven-wave structure (a diametric). If a diametric is present it will conclude when Minute wave ((g)) finishes. The structure may extend further and morph in to a nine-wave structure (a symmetrical).

Price and time similarity must exist for five of seven waves for a wave structure to be considered a diametric. Additionally the duration of wave ((g)) should not be longer than the combined duration of waves ((d)) + ((e)) + ((f)) (refer red boxes on chart). Wave ((g)) has now extended in duration to become longer than wave ((e)) but not significantly. I’m assuming wave ((e)) is the reference wave against which comparisons will be made.

The durations of Minute waves ((b)) and ((f)) are not similar to that of wave ((e)). The average duration of waves ((c)) and ((d)) (44 trading days) are 0.61x that of wave ((e)) which is very close to the inverse of Phi. If the end of Minor wave A is moved to the March 2020 low, then the duration of Minute wave ((a)) is similar to that of wave ((e)).

Minute wave ((c)) was its own symmetrical and Minute wave ((e)) was its own diametric. Minute wave ((g)) appears to be a diametric, although the start/finish of sub-waves are difficult to clearly establish. The duration of Minute wave ((g)) is longer than the duration of Minute wave ((e)). The last sub-wave Minuette wave (g) of Minute wave ((g)) appears to be underway and Minute wave ((g)) is approaching the point (unless it has already ended) where it must end to satisfy time limitations for a diametric.

At Minor wave degree, the extent of the rally off the March 2020 low raises other options for the larger picture pattern. At this point in time I won’t discuss these.

 

hi kitdoctor, thanks for sharing your analysis
just wanted to ask, so after the next "last but sustained push to a new high to complete the wave of next higher degree" are we anticipating a violent correction (the likes of late march 2020) or are we just expecting a slight correction then on to the next upward trend for XJO ?

how far away are we to the next GFC event ?

 

There is no absolute certainty that the discussed alternative will play out. Both scenarios (i.e. the preferred scenario and the alternative) eventually involve the (same) higher degree wave ending, although it occurs later in the alternative. I am watching for an important top in late July (the preferred scenario). If this does not occur, then it's on to the next key date for a possible turn. A drop larger than the largest Minuette wave (wave (d) ) of the current Minute wave or about 315 points will be the first clue that the current Minute wave is over. The low of 27 May 2021 7082.4 and then the low of Minuette wave (h) 6917.3 are the next critical levels to watch.

The next GFC scale stock market event is still due to occur in association with the end of the property cycle. The latter is due to end in 2026. This does not mean that the stock market will also top in 2026, nor that the two tops occur exactly at the same time.

 

Given recent price action I have reviewed my wave count and added an Alt count line. In this count Minuette wave (d) was a larger wave taking the form of a contracting triangle but still within a symmetrical at Minute wave degree. I'm now watching the third week of August, specifically 20 August for a turn. Astute forum members will note I have revised the bigger picture wave count, changing Minor wave B to Minor wave D. I'll discuss this in a future post.

 

I have now updated my chart to reflect the Alt count. I don't believe Minuette wave (i) can extend to its maximum permitted duration as it must be one of the waves that must be similar in time and price within the symmetrical. Time is approaching 13 August 2021 and interestingly the 23 August 2021 will be 360 trading days from the 2020 low. Don't read anything into the path/duration of the dotted line.

 

A current chart is attached. I have been in direct contact with Glenn Neely of NEoWave and he's advised that he now believes symmetricals can be valid patterns with only six of nine waves showing time and price similarity, rather than seven. The wave count already satisfies this requirement. If Minuette wave (i) were to extend to 1.618x, still making it a seventh wave that is similar, this would have wave (i) finishing around 30 August 2021. Its duration can be longer but the upper limit is 18 October 2021. The current rally off the low of 19 August 2021 has not retraced at least 0.618x of the initial move down. IMO if XJO does not retrace to this extent this would be a strong signal the market has already peaked and a major new trend down has started.

 

This was posted on facebook on 5 September 2021:

XJO
The count for XJO identifies the price action of the last 17 months as Minor wave D of a potentially larger expanding triangle, a five wave structure. The structure is thought to be a triangle because of the variability of the duration of Minor waves A-D. Wave A was identified as the largest move in the market since the previous decline that started in late April 2015. Minor wave D was a complex correction, the last structure of which is a symmetrical, a nine-wave structure. The last wave of this, Minuette wave (i) is now underway. Minuette wave (i) is expanding as it progresses which indicates it could be a diametric. However, it could also be a contracting triangle with reverse alternation meaning it is expanding, rather than contracting. Once thought to require a minimum of seven waves to be similar in price and time to form a valid symmetrical this requirement has recently been relaxed to six. There are already six waves that are similar in price and time, so Minuette wave (i) can extend in duration to be longer than 1.618x. It has now passed 23 August 2021, 360 trading days from the low of 2020 and 1.618x length (29 trading days) which occurred on 30 August 2021. It would be rare for it to extend beyond the combined duration of Minuette waves (f) + (g) + (h) which would take it to 18 October 2021. If the market progresses through September passing 11 September, 15 September (377 trading days – Fibonacci number) and the 22 September equinox, a key week to watch will be the week ending 1 October.

 

This was posted on facebook on 5 September 2021:

SPX
The nine-wave symmetrical Minor wave X of intermediate wave (E) of Primary wave ((4)) continues. Minute wave ((i)) of Minor wave X appears at this stage to have completed Minuette waves (a) – (f). If Minuette (g) marks the end of Minute wave ((i)), then that will complete a seven-wave diametric. Minute wave ((e)) was also a diametric and Minute wave ((c)) was a symmetrical.

How long can Minute wave ((i)) extend? Glenn Neely has recently conceded that symmetricals can contain a minimum of six waves similar in price and time, rather than seven. Wave ((i)) has now extended beyond the combined duration of Minute waves ((f)) + ((g)) + ((h)) which is unusual. The average duration of Minute waves ((a)), ((c)), ((d)), ((e)) and ((g)) was 49 trading days. If wave ((i)) extends to 1.618x 49 bars then its duration will be approximately 79 bars. This would require Minute wave ((i)) to end on about 8 September 2021 which is very close to the 20-year anniversary of 11 September 2001. This anniversary should see some emotion in markets. This also suggests Minute wave ((i)) will not extend further to become a nine-wave symmetrical with Minuette waves (h) and (i). I would allow some leeway around this date (8 September) because the way NEoWave charts are plotted can distort the true duration of waves. This effect grows larger at larger time frames, however, the effect has not been quantified precisely. For a 450-minute time-bar chart which is equivalent to a one-week chart I would allow a few days either side of a target date. If the market progresses through September passing 11 September, 15 September (377 trading days – Fibonacci number) and the 22 September equinox, a key week to watch will be the week ending 1 October.

 

It is almost certain the rally off the March 2020 low is over and a correction larger than experienced since that low is now underway. XJO concluded its wave structure on 16 August 2021 and SPX 10 September.

 

Hi kitdoctor, does this mean the next correction will fall even below the March 2020 low?

 

Over the last few weeks I've built 90 minute charts for SPX and XJO. This is similar to a 1 day chart (4 x 90 minute = 6 hours trading). This has helped with refining wave counts and I now believe XJO completed its wave structure on 9 September 2021, a little later than I initially thought.

The size of the correction underway should firstly exceed the size or height of the second ((x)) wave. Wave E of (C) could go lower than the low of March 2021 but I don't think this will occur. I will have more to say.