World Indices Roundup 2021

{Note from mods - this thread continues from here: World Indices Roundup 2020}




The Nasdaq has been in an uptrend for 11 weeks. It has tested - but not yet closed - below the 21 EMA, a sign of strength, but many stocks look extended from proper bases.

Earnings season has started, with TSLA to report next week. It is the alpha leader of this bull market and how it reacts to earnings could be a clue on the market in general.

 

Emerging markets coming out of a huge 13 year base ...

 

XJO following the 21 EMA upwards ...



With BHP near 12 year highs and FMG already running. Perhaps not a coincidence with EEM looking perky as per above ...

 

The first period of concern for equity markets is the week ending 5 February 2021. The last solstice occurred on 21 December 2020. This year’s first equinox occurs on Saturday 20 March 2021. Half-way between these dates is about 5 February 2021.

 

BTC is now bouncing off its 50 DMA after a pullback.

 

Wise words and 100% agree, this party is almost over......

This crawling leg up has been one big sluggish MONSTER correction to the CONVID impulse down in 2020. Expect the next leg to be another sizeable impulse down, coming soon.

XJO major resistance zone: 6,900 - 7,050
(6,900 is likely to cap it)

Timing: week of 4th Feb


Minimum objective is a break down below 5,763. Longer term expectation is for lower than this, possibly somewhere in the zone of the prior CONVID low in 2020.

I have previously posted that I expect a cycle low in Q1 2021 and this view remains firm. Markets are about to go into much higher volatility in Feb IMHO.



Buckle up for Feb/Mar

No advice

 

Why the emphasis on 44 weeks?is that a Fibonacci number?

 

Silverson

Alex, I believe, has given you (pictorially) the answer on the chart already. Hint: It relates to one of Gann's statements about time and price.

44 is not a fibonnaci number.

 

i disagree , as a (perma) bear i think the feast is still to come , i am still on an unusually large amount of cash ( for me , i tend to be 98% invested on average )

the BHP share price will be interesting the Vale JV most be a mixed blessing when it returns to production ( and surely that can't be too far away )

when does the new mining investment cycle begin , that can't be that far away either

 

Are you thinking there’s dark days ahead or sunshine?

 

dark days ARE sunshine for me

businesses offered at fair valuations , debt burdens reduced , excess expenses reduced

so you have a chance to buy a SOLID business with genuine growth potentials

the debt overhang needs to be reduced , so they can go forward organically

so pain at first especially if you over-leveraged , solid growth afterwards ( until excessive greed runs riot again )

 

since i have some cash reserves , i hope to cherry-pick the opportunities that are offered

 

We're past the 4th and 5th but I have some cash on the sidelines ready to deploy at present

 

Spray and pray. Is that plane an ETF?

 

The Nasdaq tested the 21 EMA on 29 Jan, with many leading stocks selling off supposedly as funds sold long positions to cover short positions due to the issue with GameStop. The index showed strength, rallying from there, and is now at the upper end of its channel.

This bull move is now 67 days old. There appears to be many speculative names entering climatic moves (e.g. TLRY) and most leading stocks are extended from proper bases.

TSLA, the alpha leader, has now closed below its 21 EMA - a potential clue. Other leaders to watch include PINS, SNAP, CRWD, ZS, ZM, TDOC, UBER and NIO.

 

Looks like all the normal aspects have been widely reported ,any updates on the deployments ?..

 

what does this mean ....... ... especially the bottom Himalayan peaks

 

To the moon in a lambo
Higher lowers, consolidated below resistance for 13 years, which if it can break becomes support and lower Himalayan measurement becomes the upper Himalayan target
Just for fun no advice

 

Update: Copper just did something crazy last week......


Which gives us a heads up we are about to see some kind of euphoric run up back at the top on XJO, maybe break out again briefly into 7,000 zone.

This will probably look exciting, but I believe this is the final stage of this bull run. If you look at pre GFC a similar euphoric run up plus an increase in volatility preceded the big dipper.

So far 6,900 resistance has held well.....


BUT.....as mentioned due to copper's correlation with XJO and recent move, most likely we have one more volatile push up before the more substantial move lower.

No advice

 

Yep, take a look at price at the low