World Indices Roundup 2020

@helena83 I think trying to describe in words the EW terms motive, impulsive/impulse, corrective/correction etc. will create confusion. Pictures and words are needed. I'd like to scan some book pages but at the moment and except for one weekend in February 2020 I've been living in Brisbane for the last year (sleeping on a leaking air-mattress that I've patched 12 twelve times!!!!!) and have limited tech available. So, no scanner, TV or even a chair.

 

Shanghai Composite blasts off in what is likely the next part of Primary wave ((D)) of the contracting triangle but time for a pause.

 

XJO has essentially been moving sideways since I last posted, so trendless. It did try to push through the 6100 level but failed. The momentum indicators I watch are signalling weakness ahead at the weekly time frame. I'm waiting patiently for price action to provide guidance.

 

What a large degree triangle would look like in XJO.

 

Yesterday, NASDAQ gapped up to all time highs then reversed hard.

Many leaders got whacked (e.g. NFLX). Tesla showing signs of a potential climatic end to its move.

It is one day only. However, the current uptrend has been a statistical outlier in terms how long it has run for so we are closer to the end than the beginning of this move. A key will be how leaders behave in the days following and what the follow through is like.

The next down moved isn't necessarily going to be deep and/or long. It could be short.

Earnings season about to begin.

 

@Alex Straker care to chime in? Love the work the above posters are presenting. I still feel better days are ahead, slowly accumulating the dips and continue to buy when funds become available forming a platform in 2020

 

Thoughts for the xjo future both near term and mid based on above?

 

Nasdaq has now closed below its 21 EMA for the first time since the start of this bull move. Gold is moving higher, something to watch. The institutional leading stocks will offer clues.

Many leaders are now in week 2 of forming new bases.

 

The bearish case for XJO:

• Three failed attempts to push through the 9 June 2020 high
• Now 52 calendar days below the high of 9 June 2020
• Distinct loss of upward price momentum since 9 June 2020
• Friday’s low pierced the lower trend line of a secondary channel that had established but managed to close above it
• RSI (momentum indicator) has broken sharply down through 9-day moving average (MA)
• RSI did a “kiss goodbye” to the downside with MA line
• Possible terminal ending diagonal EW structure developing between converging trend lines – signalling exhaustion and change of trend very soon if not already
• 29 June 2020 was 89 days (Fibonacci number) from March 2020 low

Near term not looking so good. Time to be on alert.

 

IXIC (NASDAQ Composite) has been advancing in a long-term channel. It has touched/nearly touched the upper trend line of that channel on five previous occasions, each time pulling back into the channel. It has now touched/pierced the trend line again.

 

Traders have been calling for the slide in the US Dollar Index to come to an end and they'll eventually see this happen as it's in a mature EW pattern that's coming to an end. Momentum is still heading down but the downward slide won't continue forever. Increased US Dollar strength is strongly correlated with weaker Asian stock markets. Right now many Asian indexes are showing signs of waning momentum and mature/terminal patterns (MSCI Singapore, Nikkei 225, S&P Nifty. KOSPI 200 etc.) regardless of whether they are in corrective rallies or new bull market advances. US Dollar strength should also see the AUDUSD exchange rate weaken.

 

The Nasdaq has reclaimed its 21 EMA. It has essentially gone side ways for the last month, which is a good thing following such a major up move. Friday showed a strong accumulation day following earnings of some big techs. SP500 looks like its setting up, which would indicate a broadening of the rally.

AMD has broken out. SHOP, a leader in this bull move, gapped up to all time highs on stellar earnings. TSLA is still above its 21 EMA.

Generally, leaders have been forming small consolidations rather than breaking down. No real institutional selling is apparent as yet. What we want to watch out for is institutions selling into the strength.

 

SP-500 has broken out of a bullish consolidation, while QQQs have under performed recently. This uptrend is now getting close to a record in terms of time.

Leaders have under performed since TSLA's climatic bar on 13 Sept. Many of these leaders were/are extended, and we've seen software leaders take a hit (e.g. FSLY, DDOG, DT). It appears institutions are rotating into cyclical groups and normal economy stocks. Perhaps they are expecting good news on COVID soon.

Bull markets can correct through rotation.

 

The rally starting 23 march, a certain failure Hey ! The folly of trying to time the market.

 

Let's take a look at what happened.

A year or so before coronoavirus hit, Alex Straker said that there would be some huge crash coming.

Then nothing happened for a YEAR. In fact the market climbed to new and enormous heights, at which people rightly pointed out sarcastically how it's funny he couldn't predict the future.

Then some crazy virus that couldn't have been foreseen happened and there was a huge global crash.

Alex then went on to claim that this confirmed his "prediction" and that there would have been the same result without this global pandemic because some other thing would have caused it!

And there was big advertising on the right banner in propertychat saying something like "You've seen his laser focused prediction" so come and have a session with this financial advisor.

 

While your perspective has its place and is something that many would agree with, it is still commendable for someone to disclose their identity and make definitive calls as Alex has made.

Just look at it as free chatter on the internet, you're not obliged to buy anything.

 

what "perspective"?

I listed the facts of what happened. A big crash was predicted. Nothing happened for a long enough period to realise the prediction was (as all predictions are) hokum as the market grow to massive new heights instead. Then down the track a completely unpredictable event occurred resulting in a crash and Alex claimed success on his prediction, and then advertised it as such to gain new clients.

There is no "perspective" here any more than it is my "perspective" that water is wet. You're framing it as my perspective as a way to refute it without actually refuting it.

 

Sorry, didn't mean to cause trigger.

When I say perspective, I refer the fact that the falls happened a year after the prediction. You consider this as a black/white prediction failed, but Mr.Alex might consider that as a win. There's no defined timeframe for a prediction to eventuate for it to be considered true, and thus I used the word "perspective".

Look, don't take it so hard, many people in the property section also claimed to get the Sydney boom timing right, some predicted it to be over in 2015 and sold stuff, some claimed interest rates would skyrocket, Amazon would be a killer, P&L cliff, "cash-cows", etc. When you spend some time here you'll realise that it's only chatter, no one has a clue.

 

I think that was @exp's point.