World Indices Roundup 2020

H1N1 Flu Virus (Swine Flu)
Ebola virus disease
SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV)

Be interesting to look back in the rear view mirror and see how Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) impacted the market compared to the above. The knock-on effect might cause a recession or it may cause a short term loss and then a resurgence, I've no idea

When the market gives you a smack in the head you don't generally see it coming

 

Try this @Redwing

Stanford Brown Monthly Top 5 - Special Coronavirus Edition

 

Asset allocators like yourself have nothing to fear from market mayhem as you know you can rely on these:

 

CNBC (@CNBC) Tweeted:
“Don’t buy or sell your business based on today’s headlines.” Warren Buffett talks about buying and selling stocks in the midst of uncertainty, like the coronavirus outbreak. #AskWarren Warren Buffett interview live updates: 'Good for us' when stocks drop, Berkshire coronavirus impact CNBC on Twitter

CNBC on Twitter

 

What are the opinions in the room on what we're currently seeing across Global equities?

It certainly seems like there's potential panic setting in surrounding the coronavirus, then again we've seen a few volatile days over the past few months followed by an immediate bounce back up.

I'm on the sidelines with my popcorn ready...Do people think the last couple of days are 'different' or are we heading back up again by the end of the week? Although the virus itself doesn't seem overly deadly, the control measures appear to have the ability to bring the world to a partial halt.

Do some of the technical analysts still believe that these market drops are unrelated to what we are seeing in the news?

Interesting times.

 

Italy, Iran, Spain

February 25 coronavirus news - CNN

The fear being that it gets a foothold in countries least able to deal with it

• The latest: The death toll from the coronavirus is now more than 2,700 worldwide, with the vast majority in mainland China. There has been more than 80,000 global cases.
• Outside of China: Europe's biggest outbreak is in Italy, where more than 280 have been infected. Iran has reported at least 95 cases and South Korea now has more than 970 cases.

 

Markets were due for a pull back anyhow.

 

Why?

 

What goes up also comes back down.

 

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

Harvard think it could infect 40-70% of the the worlds population. Surely some surfers could be getting ready to ride some waves?

 

While I did get rid of my board recently I am willing to borrow one to ride this wave If it’s appetising enough.

 

Not all the outcomes have an equal probability, so the answer is yes. Other evidence (e.g. measures of investor sentiment), that is not necessarily taken from the chart of the e.g. stock, index, commodity etc. also comes into the equation.

 

Might go out for a little paddle today. While I do think there could be more downside from here I would hate to completely miss out on this dip if it suddenly turns up again. I have the monthly buy in due on Monday anyway so I might bring that forward and throw in next months buy in as well.

 

If it were as straightforward as that markets would not trend upwards over time.

Why do you think the market was specifically due for a pull back at this particular time?

 

Near 30% increase over last year, 7% increase this year already prior to dropping now. A pullback was due

 

Anyone buying today? I'm sure this corona virus thing will blow over soon. I'm looking at WES and VAS. I don't really like LICs but are any of the good ones trading below NTA with the current correction?

 

Just for discussion sake.....

What if earnings had increased 50% last year and 15% this year? Would a pull back still be due?

The point being that a simple movement up in price is not an actual reason that price is "due" for a pull back.

In Australia at least the last 10 years has been one of the most lackluster and anemic "bull" markets ever and yet people have been saying the market is "due" for a pull back pretty much constantly since 2012.

 

Coronavirus 'blowing over' seems to be the opposite of the way it's heading, with 4-5 new countries per day seemingly recording their first case this week. It looks at this stage like it will inevitably 'break out' on several continents.

The debate should be more about how will it affect markets and the global economy if/when this occurs. Considering entire cities in China were ghost towns as they tried to contain it, there's a decent chance we'll see the same elsewhere (Northern Italy already).

 

Yes I dipped my toe in today. Not easy because I don't think we have seen the end of this down trend just yet. But since I have no idea and it could just as easily move back up I thought I would throw in a small sum.

Its a funny business this investing thing. A few weeks ago I was saying to the wife, how good is this. Every time I log on to the investment platform the portfolio has moved up $20k-$30k. This was happening nearly every week for a while. Jumped on today and since Friday I am down $175k. Easy come easy go I guess.

Not that long ago that would have rattled me. Don't get me wrong it still messes with the head to see $175k disappear within days even if its only on paper. Over the last year I have learnt the key to investing for most people is managing the emotions. So I did just that today and threw in another $100k. I am bracing though for that $100k to possibly disappear again in the next week.

 

Thinking of buying some canned food

As for the market im just watching and waiting, there are alot more ripples in the water that havent hit us yet.