World Indices Roundup 2019

yes, like you @Nodrog our investment decisions are being determined by our life stage - early years of retirement. I must admit though holding at least some of our assets in cash now does feel odd after so many years of being fully invested. If/when there is a major correction I will be very happy to deploy some of the cash

 

Similar here. Was nearly all shares but since both of us have retired cash holdings have increased. A substantial amount of this will end up in the market either when the market tanks or if not progressively as SORR lessens with time. However we’re intending to maintain more cash permanently than we did prior to both being retired.

 

I agree @Alex Straker a correction is very close. The current rally is running on fumes as they tend to do. At this point the only change to my timing is June or July 2019.

 

Price mainly. For this to play out my bearish forecast must be realised, wave c is a zigzag corrective formation where the third wave of the zigzag is very deep. I realise you might not understand what a zigzag is so have included a picture. Imagine this but steeper like the fall from 2007 to 2009.

 

Hi kitdoctor, reg the below do you see wave C on XJO bottoming out in June/Jul 2019 ? .... down to what point do you anticipate the fall ?

 

I think he meant a significant top is more likely to be in this zone

Running on fumes is a great way to put it, signs of an 'end game' for the major equities indices are everywhere if you know what to look for. The expanding triangle and 3 drive pattern I spoke of not long ago on SPY will complete, only it's later than the cycle suggested it was due. When it does......well all I will say now is that I will be interested to see how the conversation goes at that point. BTW Check out the breakout on Gold lately, massive pile on happening as we speak! Someone with deep pockets is furiously buying large quantities of Gold NOW.

Apart from all the technical charting signs of a longer term cycle end due very soon (which are numerous), we have many fundamentals stacking up also.......the inverted bond yield curve that occurred in in March, hyper volume sustained for many weeks in short side vehicles, credit markets tightening over extended period, Institutional reporting from respected managers such as Platinum they are at pre-GFC caution settings, Gold now in major volatility breakout phase and to top it off @kitdoctor 's count is now at an end game (W5's in multiple degrees) and mark my words this guy knows how to count waves.

As always when playing the long accumulation game, the point is not to be perfect 'pick the top price', however we do aim to be risk aware in the overbought zone. There is no harm in remaining risk aware and adjusting holdings accordingly if that is what you feel you need to do, risk management is very much a game of the champions The focus is to have some cash set aside 'just in case' a decent accumulation point comes up again.

No advice

 

Invest what you can when you can and all these timing threads, their complexity, costs, time consumption and stress are superferlous.

Keep it simple, invest regularly, invest broadly, stay the course and get on with your life. The mathmatecial certainty is that you will beat the average return of all those that attempt to predict optimum timing.

The champion investor doesn't attempt to do what is hard/impossible, they do what is smart and easy and get on with better things in life. Go surf the waves - don't count squigles.

my 2c

 

I hope it goes like

- stay the course
- best time to be buying is when there is a sale aka correction
- be greedy when everyone is fearful
- fortunes are made who are brave enough to buy in bear markets

Cheers
Oracle

 

... and get on with your life - analysing the latest RBA data on equity markets ....

Exactly what I tried to do today but the water's a bit cold.

 

Well, somebody has to do it in order to keep those of us who do not have the necessary ability informed.

Wimp. It was only about minus four here this morning so toughen up. However, I do take some comfort it's colder in some parts of NSW.

 

Frightfully cold at the coast today, 12C last night and 19C today. Enjoyed a long brisk walk along the beach this morning and ventured knee deep into the water numerous times being an adventurous type.

 

Gaining more ground

My expensive chart software

 

Does this still stand for those with a larger sum of money ready to invest?

 

I think it's an individual decision @Barny. Some may have available $5k per month or only $5k in total. Some may have $1M or more.

The funds available to an individual and their attitude usually determine their investment approach.

I've known of those who can put in $5k per year stick to it. For others that amount is chicken feed but I have high respect for them as they are doing what they can with the amount of funds they have available.

 

Well I don’t know, I’m still demanding a market Tsunami. I won’t settle for anything less:

 

Just went out onto the balcony for another Tsunami watch. Nothing to report:

 

If you haven't been told today consider it done.

 

He he. I’m used to it. Very frequently get “told” by the boss. Situation normal. Can’t get enough of it. My mission in life is to cause others distress.

Aside from that I’m still recovering from the worst breakfast of my life. Thought I’d need to visit emergency for a stomach pump. Ordered Scrambled Tofu for breakfast. Tried to eat it but nearly threw up. It tasted like pure salt / brine. The boss had the same and took one bite then couldn’t eat it. Complained to management. After some investigation the new Chef apparently confused the packet of feta in brine for Tofu. So we were served scrambled feta in brine. If we were vegans there would have been non-stop protests outside this cafe.

I’m just thankful I’m still alive to tell the tale.

 

Oh Lordy. World Feta v Tofu Indices. What next?