World Indices Roundup 2019

I still stand by my ~4800 (XJO) around this time next year as a bottom, from here a strong bounce to ~10000 in 2026 where there will be another gfc type correction.
This is based off my own unqualified research, I am however hedging this call by continually dca into chosen direct stocks, etfs and lics but will use leverage to up my buy in as conditions deteriorate. A s much as I’d love to go all in I will only be using half of my available funds secured against ppor as this will be my first downturn as a share investor and to appease the man in the mirror I will be taking this approach.
@Alex Straker how long do you see this down turn lasting based on your research?

 

@Alex Straker BEAR ETF

 

Whilst I'm still sceptical on the Fibonacci and other mathematical sequences, I love reading your posts. I feel there is truth in the biological or natural systems growth cycles and this could apply to the markets.Thanks for continuing to put them up. Nice to be prompted to reflect deeper or take higher level view for a change.

 

There is true wisdom in your posts @Silverson

Time, not price is the most important and revealing thing towards understanding the market's behavior, and to relieve this very overbought condition, we need a certain minimum amount of time to elapse now before this downtrend will find it's cycle 'balancing trough' matching the peak we just saw. As anyone can sense just by eyeballing the amount of time taken to reach this point in the longer term up trend this is not likely to happen quickly at all and we are in for quite an unraveling again.

Agree there is a very real chance of what amounts to basically a continual downtrend that lasts for rest of 2019, Xmas bounce then downtrend for majority of 2020, at this stage (and I really need more time to elapse before refining this date) Early call for another major low to look for in the longer term sense will be 11th December 2020. It's a bit too soon to develop a forecast line beyond there so not even sure how good of a bounce that will look like just yet. What I do expect is the one in Dec 2019 will look quite strong but most likely end up turning down again in Jan 2020 and exceeding the prior Dec 2019 low during 2020.

I will be able to fill in more blanks as time marches on.

I get asked a lot how can I be quite specific this far ahead of time, in't it all a fair degree of guesswork? And the answer is no, not in the slightest in fact on the contrary! This involves highly specific information and processes with a smaller component of discretion.

These dates must always be a little elastic as I am sure everyone realizes but they are quite reliable providing the correct cycles have been unravelled. That is the nature of cycles, think of it this way I am a musician and completed a music degree as well as spent a great deal of my early career as touring and studio musician plus in education. One of the things we do in teaching people to follow rhythm is we might play a song that students listen to part way through to get their mind in synchronization with the beat (internally and silently counting in rhythm, not tapping along or anything). As we turn the music off part way through the students are asked to internally continue to imagine the song and in particular the rhythm running through their mind internally and then clap their hands on a specific beat of a specific bar in the future. Kind of silent internal communication where everyone plugs in to a universal mind, orchestral musicians an also are highly familiar with this phenomenon and counting bars of rest etc

Here's the point relating to the market......the students do not need to be able to actually hear the song when it stops playing to be successful as a group, none of them need to communicate in any way or look at each other and sit in silence sometimes for many minutes, yet everyone claps precisely together right on the rhythmic timing point by working with historical information to project a precise point in to the future even though there is a large information gap with no apparent reference points.

The cycles in the market as a rhythm are reasonably 'stable' but the difficulty lies in unraveling the multiple interlocking rhythms that exist and also identifying the one key rhythm that unlocks the rest of it harmonically. They do however have a small amount of 'elasticity' over time just as you will hear a musician slow down or pause slightly as a natural attenuation of the musical phrase. As we move into 2020 the historical cycles information will continues to 'fill in blanks' (where the music does not play) and provide more up to date references to how each cycle is continuing in rhythm and the overall effect this will have on slightly shifting rhythmic points. Naturally there is much much more to all this in understanding the maths and patterns of nodal points, balance of peaks and troughs, amplitude, angle of attack of the cycle wave itself etc etc......but hopefully the rhythm concept helps to get a sense of where this stuff has it's roots.

No advice

 

Point of limited upside reached two days later!

 

I'll pay that!
Certainly appears so.

 

Thanks Alex, I always appreciate your posts and analysis. It's very interesting and the recent few days of drops had me feeling significant doubt in my thoughts. But then overnight Trump is making more noises on removing the trade barriers and Powell about dropping rates, and the market had a small rebound. I strongly believe that Trump has created a false negative to release steam out of the market intentionally in the lead up to his re-election bid so that this steam builds up for him to release at the right moment for the final home stretch of his re-election.

There is some negative US domestic and global economic data but it doesn't seem really as bad as all that. Yet. Structurally, the expansion period is definitely coming to a close and there are overwhelming forces for contraction which will play out over the coming years. But I still feel like there is one last hurrah before reality hits. The cash and defensive plays on the sidelines don't seem to have "moved on" from the stock market and firmly resigned themselves to alternative investments rather than merely having some short term trepidation waiting for the uncertainty to be removed before they pile back in, in a big way.

I still expect potential short term drops to around early 2018 levels but I think that will shake the final bears out, then Trump will remove the trade uncertainty, Powell will drop rates and the funds will jump in aggressively and as the market goes up, the spruikers will get the mums and dads piling in and there will be many people, including unfortunately the retirees with their nest eggs who will get severely burned in the carnage that unfolds.

Of course I'm not relying on charts or anything technical other than an overall feeling of the market sentiment and political forces. For a long time now I've been writing down my thoughts and predictions based on this and have got it wrong many times and right many times (like a broken clock is also right, twice a day!). But I seem to be learning and getting it more right than wrong over the last few years. However if your predictions unfold accurately, I will probably become one of your clients!

 

Posted 2OCT2019......

XJO


Updated chart 12OCT19 after Friday close.....

XJO




No advice

 

It will be great to watch how this plays out, strong rally in the US on news of trade war deals that will no doubt flow on toglobal markets incl Aus! It will appease the concerns of many who have posted in the past about market harmonics and how news doing more for markets then their natural cycles.
With a large amount of US companies in reporting season/releasing data next week it could possibly put a huge dampener on the moods of investors with lower than expected earnings due to the lingering trade war and tariffs. After a trade truce has been reached, companies can adjust, profits will rise, confidence will return, a rise for the next 5-6 years followed by the big bertha of corrections.
What i will do. Continue to dca, and try to have low levels of debt circa 2023/4 (max 30% lvr) and a large amount of cash in offsets to take advantage of opportunities to follow.
My opinion no advice

 

10% off sale at the end of Oct sounds good. Hopefully there will be more in the following months too so I can get my Xmas shopping all done online

 

14 trading days left in October. So we should see a few side way days followed by a 10% drop by end of month. So we should be seeing something like a 1% average drop per day for the last 10 trading days to get to that 6000 mark.
Interesting 2 weeks ahead.

The talk of trade agreement seems to have lifted the market. But considering they haven’t actually released any real details of significance tells me this so called part deal was done to calm markets rather than any real resolution.

 

U.S. outlines 'Phase 1' trade deal with China, suspends October tariff hike



Sometimes the mathematics don't work because most individual blue chip's no matter what market for a 10xx40 percent decline would mean most would have to trade at unrealistically low levels ,and from the pattern i'm starting to see ..When you look at the Elliott Wave theory --Gann 101--Astrology --Basic chart patterns--Swing charts --and the most important one ''Resistance'' the signal i'm starting to see is that demand is starting to gain the upper hand ,beyond a temporary bounce..imho..

 

I think the tricky thing is finding value and opportunities, first pick the sector then the stock, far easier to just accept market returns via a low cost index fund/etf then as a satellite/play money try find value?
Your thoughts?

 

If the OCT rapid dip is to play out it should start to show it's hand around 18th - 22nd in the SPY XJO, FTSE, DAXX and other indices. A 10% hit would be a good start, looking for bit deeper in December.

Thanks for your faith big buy, I was pretty happy with the first two legs of the forecast, the cycle end points have been spot on in price and time so far. Friday rally in overnight trade on overseas markets is likely to see a test of the limits of the forecast channel. Interesting couple of weeks for sure! Pattern can break of course but looks on track up to this stage.

I know a lot of you guys already get this comment.......in case we get a few more newer folks stumbling around in here, just want to re-iterate to be clear the forecasts cannot be expected to work 100% of the time. It's really quite a challenge arriving at something I want to actually put out there as a forecast, like sticking my neck on a chopping block voluntarily each time I do this Certainly, a lot of care goes in to to making each one count, but please don't begin to expect perfection in every case it's not going to be that way ever. Only mentioning this again 'cos a few signs of overshooting on expectations are creeping in from feedback I am getting. Great to develop you own independent thinking and internalize as much useful info as possible from whatever sources you like and feel of benefit, then come up with your own strategic 'line of best fit' approach to using it as many of the members here do so well!

As anyone who has messed around in this realm of charts knows, aiming to be this specific as per the recent chart with a direct forecast line on a relatively short term time frame we are looking at here such as the Daily chart is a huge challenge, but no prizes for guessing I do genuinely love the maths and science behind it all. This really is the most interesting and amazing thing I have personally ever been fortunate enough to learn (got mentored in to myself by a generous hearted US hedge fund consultant).

I sincerely hope it's helping open some eyes to new possibilities and ways of understanding. I also want to say how much I appreciate all the feedback from a great bunch of posters we have here, and also appreciate others such as @kitdoctor giving his specific viewpoints and fantastic educational posts supporting all this weirdo 'market voodoo' we are into

There are also a couple of my students (you know who you are!) now excelling at these skills and that is exciting for me to see them develop a sense of a true lifetime benefit ahead from working hard to internalize something new and a skill of tremendously high value over the long term.

 

@Alex Straker , definitely brave off you giving such specific forecasts and while your doing this with the best intentions to help and educate members, I’m sure if it doesn’t play you will get someone giving you flack.

At the end of the day if you had a crystal ball I’m sure you wouldn’t be on here sharing future market movements play by play. Probably be on your own private island somewhere living the dream.

 

Love your work @Alex Straker, as I’ve said even if you were miles off, the passion you show and effort you put into refining your art is good enough for me.
Keep it up bud, also takes big kohunas to publicly post when you are promoting your business so again good on you!

 

Funny, big Kohunas was what they called me at the Wing Chun school in Brisbane

Quick market thought for this week......if things stay on track XJO is unlikely to ascend much above 6,700 (see channel chart in other posts) and certainly should not see a close above 6,740.

There's the line in the sand

 

That is sometimes the problem ,some take the easy way and as you say accept the market returns with a low cost index--eft and as the 2 people who's post went on forever that left last week about lics risk and the investment atmosphere ...
Myself i don't invest in lic's eft's ect,and good luck to all who invested of the advice that was contained within that post--if i did i would start to think i had permanent brain damage that's after the ringing in ears stops..
I Just like the adrenaline rush that one gets when you buy something for 20 cents ,and the first few days once it's listed it goes above the one dollar mark ,and i don't care 1 percent if the media forecasters tell all that will listen the company in trouble the more the better.

Not advice in any way,but one i have been watching waiting for over a year now as it's always easier to live with the benefit of hindsight and bought a large parcel at $1--92 mid last week plus entry costs ,i had a quick look a minute or so ago it's up 10 percent so far today and running at around $2.375 and there is a lot of gas left in the tank on this one and have virtually full control of your destiny standing on the knife edge.''''IMHO''

ASX -CYB..NOT ADVICE IN ANY WAY..BAM BAM..

 

Interesting to note that the first trade dispute truce between US/China was immediately prior to the sharp sell-off into December 2018. Now we have trade truce 2 just announced will be interesting to see if the correlation (sample size one!) holds and we get a sharp sell-off as expected.

 

Buy the rumour sell the fact