World Indices Roundup 2019

I think more important than being able to swim is knowing which direction to be facing when that wave arrives. If you are ready for it and go with it, it will take you along for the ride. If you are unaware that its coming then it will hit you hard and you are in for a rough ride.

Look, I am not normally a fan of this strategy but being that I had capital sitting on the sideline and the consensus is that something significant could be happening soon, I figured I might as well wait it out for a little while and see how this plays out. If I am wrong and it doesn't play out as expected than I happy to have taken that chance and given up some possible upside in the short term.
If it does play out as expected the upside should be significantly higher than the possible downside shall it not.

 

@Big A

Reminds me of the old proverb that "stocks take the staircase up and elevator down"

 

Asx200 starts with a bang. just over 2% down. Still early days. Ill get excited when we are in the 5000's.

Update: 2.4% and dropping. Exciting stuff.

 

Same here mate. Risk/ reward. How much higher can it go from record highs? 10%, 20% and yes it could double again. That would be minimum 400% gain ftom the lows when then economic fundamentals are pretty dire. I say the chances of that happening are way less than it correcting 10%, 20% or even halving.
I am still 90% cash by the way. I have spent the past 9 months researching all my preferred asset classes for the best,safest and most sustainable yield. My list is pretty much ready. Not only passive stuff but I have realised I need to do some "work" as I am too young to fully retire. So looking at different options in small scale property development with a view to build and rent. Not quite finished yet.
If I ask nicely a property correction continuing as well as a stockmarket one whilst I am getting set would be great thanks.

 

Without taking this thread off topic I did look at some small scale property development for a build and hold strategy. Problem is, in Sydney anyway its not easy to find a suitable DA approved site without paying top dollar. When I did the numbers, the rental return yield was very unappealing. Unless the yield on a develop and hold is attractive like 7% I have no more interest in owning resi property.

Though I am currently looking at another business that I am keen to get involved in. Warehousing & Distribution. Looking at an opportunity of purchasing into an operating business that has potential to expand significantly if we make the capital available. I am better of keeping busy by running business and letting the investment portfolio do its thing with a passive strategy.

 

Yup. To paraphrase Jullie Andrews "Picked up a few of my favourite things."

No idea what has happened to the market or the particular shares after I bought and of no interest to me.

 

Best I can get to is 4ish% rental yield. Add in tax benefits of depreciation, a few % of CG, 20% manufactured equity and a bit of leverage. Starting to look OK. Not 100% decided if this is a better option than a REIT. Passive vs active. Property is the last asset class I am looking at due to the many options available for investment. I do like owning a real not paper asset for 25% of my portfolio.
Funnily enough I did 30 years of wholesale distribution. Rewarding business but certainly not passive. Not one little bit. High turnover low margin. Every pip counts. Good luck!

 

At one stage it was down 2.5% now its only 2.1%. Look what you did. Your causing the market to lift again. Stop buying shares until we get go 10% or so down.

 

Interesting. Yeah definitely not passive running a business. But that's what I am looking for and the industry interests me. I think its got big potential and with everything going online I believe its only in its infancy. And yes while doing my homework on this particular business I learnt just how low the margins are. I was surprised by how low. From my initial research I am seeing something like 5% of turn over is the profit margin. But I feel like its a business and industry that you can have scale in and expand fairly easily. With 5% margin if we get to say a simple $100mill turn over then that will do. I am not a greedy man.

 

That's the problem right there. Some continue look at the market throughout the day/week/pick time frame. Some dummies such as myself now buy and walk away until next time to buy.

 

Yep. 5% is about right. You can get a few extra if you do some buy/sell through rebates. Increase turnover, control costs and its a money machine. Simples. Only have to work 25hrs a day.

 

Yeah I think you have the right idea and I am the dummie. But that's just my nature to get obsessive with stuff. I am not to fixated with todays drop. I am waiting for the 5000's or very close before I start dropping some serious coin into the market.

 

Did you shop for international or domestic today @SatayKing?

 

Perfect. Sounds like my sort of job.

When I have to much work I complain how busy I am and look forward to a break.
As soon as I have an hour of doing nothing I get bored and start to looking for something to do.

 

First thing I do every morning is check the Dow Jones, if it’s deep in the red I bounce out of bed!
I’m not right, I need help...... admitting you have a problem is the first step right?

 

International. I have three to choose from and as the coin landed on its edge decided I may as well buy some of each. Decisions, decisions, decisions*

* About what to have for lunch.

 

Love your style, kudos to you! Log on, buy, log off, enjoy life! Simpleton!

 

Hahahahahaha. But it's true says the defence. [English spelling of same. Pfft autocorrect].

 

Finished the day 2.3% down. A decent drop but still a long way to go. Tonight will be interesting. Will see what the S&P500 futures look like.

 

XJO will likely go to around 6,400 in this first push down, pause there for a little while, form a small bull trap bounce, then dramatically further down later this month to around 6060. Could well be down over 10% from recent peak by end of October/start November. That won't be the end of it either, not wanting to be a doomsdayer or anything like that but if what I am seeing is on track over a longer term, then we are in for a tough time that's why I come here to warn you guys. Remember even though you will see volatile bounces, cycle forecast now says downtrend until late December.

Will also let you know when it looks like the good times are likely back again Could be a while in this case although there will be a short term bounce around Xmas IMO, other than I see the trend as now ONLY JUST changed to down, this was a clear tipping point that I posted here as an expectation and it has 'caught fire' quite nicely and there are LONG cycles involved. At least months.

In any case it's great to see so many here accumulating equities and sticking to the plan that suits them individually, all based around their own common sense strategy. It all works with patience, just need to have our cash flow well structured and flowing in the right kinda directions to accumulate the good stuff over extended periods.

Accepting guidance in the process if often the toughest part because as humans we are wired up by the system (and this is accelerating) to separate ourselves and complete in conflict when true power comes through unity and harmony.

Plus it's tough for most people to get their head around the concept any market (and for that matter any growth system of nature) could actually evolve on a highly forecast-able set of principles that do not taught in our education system (except in a veiled way in music). The fractal maths involved amounts to a very precise pattern based 'natural growth' model. So if there are truly waves of social moods driving this process of mathematically precise fractal growth series, then the question becomes what is driving those waves? Not intending to suggest the explanation for that here, it beggars belief, but I will say that is where we arrive at true causation of market movement.

No advice.