World Indices Roundup 2019

Lump sum gives better outcomes statistically, so studying up and working your brain into feeling confident about it is a good investment of time.

I lump summed in August last year after reading about this argument obsessively, then asx dives down, then back up above my initial investment now. All the time I had no worries or regrets (particularly facing down a concerned parent) as the long term outlook and best research I could have done informed my decision.

I think there is a thread for DCA vs lump. In it there is a wonderful graph of market timing comparisons over a long period. It shows all the returns lines overlaid into a spaghetti wave. Think 500 line graphs on top of each other. Generally it showed whenever you timed your lump, compounding returns over 10 years or so from that time, all returns are above zero and statistically very small chance of having pathetic returns. May have used a market index (maybe US).

Edit: I appreciate I am only 1 year into my lump era, but I won't lose sleep no matter what.

 

Posted 25JUL19

Update.....

No Advice

 

Alex with your prediction of a couple big lows coming up, what are you thinking the asx will be after June 2020? Around 6000 or lower?

 

Having a plan and sticking to it is the biggest hurdle with investing - so good to see you have yours set and I'm definitely not knocking lump summing.

The tricky part is when you have other options for the money and you're in the "danger" zone. I'm already 100% in shares 50/50 oz and international via super. A lump sum outsude super can sit in offset for a guaranteed 5ish % return after tax on a high tax rate. I'm no fan of timing based on reading tea leaves or AFR, but the share market is a savage beast so I approach it with caution. I went through the GFC in shares and held steady, and it was a heck of a time. But I had much less to lose then.

As @dunno posted on SORR you need to be cognisant of where you're at in your investing stage. Those histograms I posted don't show much difference in median, which tells me most likely the two methods will return similar amounts. DCA with a decent "safe" option (offset, IP renos etc) may reduce the massive upside of lump summing but also limit the downside risk.

Who knows though, not me thats for sure.... All I know is that my regret will be less if I DCA and return less than if I lump sum and we have a large drop soon after. It will also be easier to explain to the wife

 

Speaking of @dunno where is our local “crowd control” officer. Given some serious breaches of bad investor behaviour here of late in a few threads I was expecting the issue of some spot fines. Falling down on the job, just not good enough given how much PC pays him. Or perhaps he sees it as a lost cause especially me in particular. Still I enjoy being reprimanded on a regular basis.

 

From Commsec this morning:

Wall Street has sold off sharply as recession fears gripped the market after the US Treasury yield curve temporarily inverted for the first time in 12 years.
All three major US indexes closed down about 3 per cent on Wednesday, with the blue-chip Dow posting its biggest one-day point drop since October.
It came after two-year Treasury yields surpassed those of 10-year bonds, which is considered a classic recession signal.
Germany reported a contraction in second-quarter gross domestic product, and China's industrial growth in July hit a 17-year low.
Wednesday was the first time that yields for two-year and 10-year Treasuries had inverted since June 2007, months before the onset of the great recession, which crippled markets for years.
The US yield curve has inverted before every recession in the past 50 years.
Nodrog looks like your buying spree might be approaching

 

Most cash being held is for SORR risk mitigation. It’ll need to be a pretty serious event to deploy that into the market.

However I have some cash for accumulation available that I might use to top up VAS today. I waited an extra day or two because @SatayKing bought some VAS then so I knew that would be a bad time to buy. The market is bound to go down after he buys anything.

 

I’m priming the pumps getting ready to go. Still a little further to go down though then I will throw everything at it including the kitchen sink.

 

Has something happened?

 

Bit more momentum gathering on this so called "recession" that is unfolding. Early days obviously. But interesting to monitor, more out of curiosity.

 

I see. Thanks.

Haven't been bothered with any news sources so far today. Too nice a morning to concern myself about such stuff so streaming Bach while I have brekkie.

It does wonders to switch off the outside world. People should give it a go.

 

You might have to find some one else to provoke.

I’m finding the forum a bit like a TV series. Its fine whilst you’re into it, but once you stop watching regularly. Going back is a bit same old. same old. Plot is repetitive, jokes are the same, The nuances that kept you amused previously pass over your head and you wonder why you used to bother. Certainly, no more talking to the screen – emotional involvement with the characters has waned. They can burn or prosper with out raising a single care factor in me.


Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m busy, either

a) Having sold at the high I’m now busy scouring the internet for a consensus of the prohets to tell me when to buy back. (then when to sell again & buy again & sell,& buy, sell, buy, sell.........)
b) Busy packing for a diving and sea kayaking trip back to Raja Ampat, without a care in the world what the market does, the plan will handle it. (unless the world blows up, then I’m staying there)

 

Big drop overnight in the US market. So much cash sitting on the sidelines that it feels like this drop is more of a bear shakeout, though wouldn’t be surprised if it dropped substantially more even another 15%. However I’m not fearful it’s the start of a sustained downtrend and I expect the bulls waiting on the sideline heavy on cash will come pouring in once valuations are attractive. If that times well with way forward on US-China trade, am expecting a significant rise follows the drop.

While I’m unconvinced on the technical analysis I think kitdoctor’s scenario World Indices Roundup 2019 is likely.

 

Just from the sidelines Alex.

Would you have a date when your Book is about to hit the book shops ?..

I,m looking forward to reading ,not that i will understand it but i just like to read..

Myself i gave up long ago just ride the wave as you see fit..

 

Apologies if interpreted that way. It’s simply me being my usual senile silly self. I behave this way with everyone I like including my best friends.

Yes it does become the same old, same old to those who have been here awhile. But I’ve hung around despite this to assist new comers and enjoy social interaction with other regulars. However your above comment confirms my concerns about what I thought might have been the case for awhile now. So thanks for being honest, point taken. Hence I’ll do what I should have done a long time ago and take my leave permanently this time as opposed to unsuccessful attempts in the past.

Have a great time.

 

@Nodrog
i have learnt so much from your posts and enjoy them. I for one, being relatively new to investing in equities, do hope you will stick around providing your thoughts and insights. There is a continuous stream of noobies and the more opinions and insight from people who have been in the market and investing successfully for a long time can only benefit[/QUOTE]

 

[/QUOTE]
Plus 1 to that. Even though a lot of the stuff said is repetitive I still think it has many benefits to the newbies and even some of the veterans.
Sometimes saying things over and over will make you look at something in a different light or at times just reaffirm your original thoughts / plan.

It would be a big loss if people stopped communicating on here because they feel they don’t have nothing new to add.

 

Plus 1 to that. Even though a lot of the stuff said is repetitive I still think it has many benefits to the newbies and even some of the veterans.
Sometimes saying things over and over will make you look at something in a different light or at times just reaffirm your original thoughts / plan.

It would be a big loss if people stopped communicating on here because they feel they don’t have nothing new to add.[/QUOTE]
Totally agree @Big Al

 

So where do you go as it would be very hard to find a site like this.. M ost outside this village go beyond a mere hubris to fantasy and delusion ..Then you have--Commsec--HotCopper-- I turned 10k into 5 mil in six months then back on social security one month later sites ..Not saying in any way those sites are useless ..
Plus the worry would be what's your mate Satay-King going to do ..