Will there be a Investor sell-off before this years Election..

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by willair, 21st Jan, 2019.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. MikeyBallarat

    MikeyBallarat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Aug, 2016
    Posts:
    579
    Location:
    Ballarat East
    I don’t know what socialists are even doing here in Australia - when they can move to China, Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea etc. to live out their utopian dreams. My ancestors came here to *escape* socialism, we don’t need it brought back thanks very much

    Edit: To respond more directly, I hate that assumption that if you are an investor you are massively wealthy. Yeah, the goal is to build wealth, but why punish those who want to get there via their own hard work? Socialism is a horrid philosophy built upon envy, jealousy and outright hatred of your fellow man.
     
    PaulB, Morgs, Archaon and 2 others like this.
  2. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    4th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,509
    Location:
    Upper Blue Mountains
    You understand its a spectrum and societies can exist...very well in fact with a blend of capitalistic and socialist policies.
     
    abc, See Change, marty998 and 3 others like this.
  3. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jan, 2018
    Posts:
    903
    Location:
    N.S.W , W.A
    Back to the OP, its already happening and another article in one of the weekend papers about the situation.
    If Sydney residential vacancy rates end up with a 4 in front, it would probably get a lot worse ,as all the profit takers and those sitting on older empty houses and apartments take a big hit to the hip pocket.
     
  4. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    10th Aug, 2017
    Posts:
    1,147
    Location:
    Utopia
    Investor sell off? Unlikely. I would expect there will be a frenzy to purchase properties so the “grandfathered” rules apply to them. This way investors might be looking to lock in negative gearing and CGT provisions. It’s hard to predict human behaviour.
     
    See Change and Archaon like this.
  5. MikeyBallarat

    MikeyBallarat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Aug, 2016
    Posts:
    579
    Location:
    Ballarat East
    Well, yes that’s true...easy and cost effective access to healthcare is one thing, but hiking taxes in 4 separate ways to pay for a media outlet that I don’t watch or to donate half a billion to the UN is completely different.
     
  6. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    4th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,509
    Location:
    Upper Blue Mountains
    $17 billion worth of fighter jets
    $50 billion for some subs
    $50 billion on pensions

    Thats where the big money is
     
  7. MikeyBallarat

    MikeyBallarat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Aug, 2016
    Posts:
    579
    Location:
    Ballarat East
    I see value in a military (again, a socialist aspect, like healthcare, that provides value to our nation).

    I don’t know what you’re talking about with pensions, it’s Labor who wants everyone on welfare, and wants to scrap WFTD.

    Why do you vote Labor when you are on a property investment forum? Do you hate yourself? Do you hate money? Do you love paying tax?

    I sure don’t, and I bloody hate that I will be $10k per year worse off when Shorten is elected.
     
    Danny370z likes this.
  8. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    4th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,509
    Location:
    Upper Blue Mountains
    I have voted for Labor and Liberal candidates over the years. I despise blind allegiance to a political party and consider that the refuge of the fool.

    Im a husband, father, a citizen, a business person, graduate, rate payer and then perhaps a property owner.

    As for paying tax, i dont love it but after having lived and word in many countries without a functioning state , I certainly understand the benefits.
     
    abc, inertia, marty998 and 3 others like this.
  9. MikeyBallarat

    MikeyBallarat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Aug, 2016
    Posts:
    579
    Location:
    Ballarat East
    I hope to be a husband and father some day, like yourself. I think I can be a better husband and father when the time comes if I can set up my financial future better now when I’m in my 20s. I will spend less time working, and more with my future wife and kids. They would worry about financial stress less, and we can keep a secure roof over our heads.

    Voting Liberal now will make me a better husband and father in the future, by reducing my financial stresses, and allowing me to focus more on what really matters in life.

    I am not, and never have been a Liberal Party member. I have voted for non-Liberal candidates before (though not Labor). I will be putting Labor last, as I did in the most recent Vic State election, because at this point in time, in my view a Liberal federal government delivers the better outcome for 95.0% of Australians. This is not down to any blind party allegiance. I have opened both my eyes, and seen enough of Labor to turn away in disgust.

    Out of curiosity, what is it that you find appealing about a prospective Shorten Government? I just don’t get it.
     
  10. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jan, 2018
    Posts:
    903
    Location:
    N.S.W , W.A
    Probably should really thank Peter Dutton for his moment of madness when he went for a second challenge of Malcolm Turnball .
    Obviously the power went to his head.
    The very thing that Tony Abbott used so effectively against Gillard and Rudd was repeated by the Liberal Party a few years later.
    Most people were absolutely sick of it years ago.
    Governments change all the time , life goes on.
    Buddy..
     
    radson likes this.
  11. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    4th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,509
    Location:
    Upper Blue Mountains
    I just dont get why you think Im Pro-Shorten or a Labour party advocate.
     
  12. mickyyyy

    mickyyyy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Jan, 2016
    Posts:
    419
    Location:
    Sydney
    Seems to me it could be less likely Labor will get in with current declines and more till then. Media keeps bashing Labor's NG policies weekly, and existing home owners dont want there value to keep dropping...
     
  13. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

    Joined:
    25th May, 2018
    Posts:
    602
    Location:
    Sydney
    If the mid 80's anything to go on, the NG changes will adversely affect the property market, irrespective of whether it is grandfathered or not. That it is grandfathered doesn't change that the future re-sale value will reduce.

    The thing I am really outraged about is something that no one is talking about.

    The changes to negative gearing leads to a complete redefinition of "taxable income" in a way that hurts individuals and benefits governments.

    Currently, someone's taxable income is the sum or all gains plus all losses.

    Under the proposed ALP plan, as a taxpayer I get to keep the income on which I pay taxes. But my losses belong to the government, which they will then graciously drip-feed back to me over future years/decades.

    It mean individuals OVER PAY tax in the present to get small tax benefits in the future. And we all know that with inflation, a tax refund in the future is worth less than a tax refund in the present.

    It fundamentally changes the relationship that we the people have with our governments. It entitles governments to our earnings before us.

    Based on the above, the changes to NG are actually quite pernicious and immoral IMO.

    I would be interested to hear if anyone has thought of it in this way?
     
  14. MikeyBallarat

    MikeyBallarat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Aug, 2016
    Posts:
    579
    Location:
    Ballarat East
    Yep I know. My heart sank when I first heard the news of that challenge, it felt like chances went from slim to none.

    But the reason why I’m so scared about this is three fold - it’s the first federal election where I have had any decent net worth, Labor has never been so far to the left before in recent history, and all polls seem to indicate that Labor will win in a landslide.

    By your posting in this thread, you seem to be favouring Labor over Liberal policy.
     
  15. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    4th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,509
    Location:
    Upper Blue Mountains
    Im actually really torn this federal election as the major party members contesting my federal seat (Maquarie) both have policies which I favor and dispute.
     
  16. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jan, 2018
    Posts:
    903
    Location:
    N.S.W , W.A
    A lot of governments are always going to struggle going into their 3rd term , regardless of them being Liberal or Labour., they can start to carry a lot of unwanted baggage and a few big egos.
    I could be wrong but i think it was Menzies that taxed the crap out of the wealthy .
    These possible changes coming up are not new and some were made years ago.
    Some who have taken on massive debt and speculated on property always going up may have to rearrange a few things to a more conservative portfolio.
    But each to their own.
     
    mickyyyy likes this.
  17. SMTY

    SMTY Active Member

    Joined:
    21st Jan, 2018
    Posts:
    43
    Location:
    vic
    I think CGT discount change will be based on a sell before/after date not when the asset was aquired. Reckon its going to shock a few.
     
  18. Angel

    Angel Well-Known Member Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,997
    Location:
    Paradise, Brisbane
    There was a mountain of outrage on PC several years ago when Labor first declared its negative gearing and CGT policies before the previous elections. I have exhausted all my emotion on the topic and have moved on to "what will be, will be". There is nothing I can do personally to alter the outcome of any election.
     
    MikeyBallarat, inertia and Archaon like this.
  19. iloveqld

    iloveqld Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    11th Jan, 2017
    Posts:
    141
    Location:
    Brisbane
    But with your experience, you can help us have more ideas to make the right decisions. Then we have less impact as the market will balance it out in the end does not matter much of the policy in the long term.
    The less investment, the less build or subdivision, the higher rent. This will be perfect to long term holders on good properties. Bad ones will be killed quickly, and regulation changes again no worries.

    As long as we player know how to play the best options in the games, we still can make money against the market or losers.
     
  20. ollidrac nosaj

    ollidrac nosaj Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    27th Apr, 2016
    Posts:
    729
    Location:
    australia
    "Here are the Top 10 years of tax to GDP ratios since 1980-81and the government in power at the time:

    2004-05 24.3% Liberal
    2000-01 24.2% Liberal
    2005-06 24.2% Liberal
    2002-03 24.0% Liberal
    2003-04 24.0% Liberal
    2006-07 23.7% Liberal
    2007-08 23.7% Liberal
    1986-87 23.3% Labor
    1987-88 23.2% Labor
    2001-02 23.2% Liberal

    (Note: The Turnbull government gets an award for the next highest with the projected tax to GDP ratio of 23.1% in 2018-19).

    Even more extraordinary are the facts of the 10 lowest tax to GDP ratios since 1980-81. All 10 are under Labor governments. All 10.

    Here they are:

    1992-93 20.0% Labor
    1993-94 20.0% Labor
    2010-11 20.0% Labor
    2009-10 20.2% Labor
    1991-92 20.7% Labor
    2011-12 20.9% Labor
    1983-84 21.0% Labor
    1994-95 21.2% Labor
    2012-13 21.5% Labor
    2013-14 21.5% Labor

    And the source for these numbers are the MYEFO released by Treasurer Morrison and Finance Minister Cormann in December 2015:

    Also:

    "rate of job creation is stronger whenever Labor is in power, pulling the economic levers, compared with the times when the Coalition is in office.

    The obvious follow up was to see which side of politics presides over a stronger pace of real GDP growth.

    The results are set out below. The figures are average quarterly growth in real GDP.

    Abbott: 0.64%
    Rudd/Gillard: 0.61%
    Howard: 0.89%
    Hawke/Keating: 0.92%
    Fraser: 0.59%

    Using a weighted average for the period since Fraser in 1975, the overall result was:

    Labor: 0.82%
    Coalition: 0.76%

    So there you have it. When Labor are in office, the economy grows faster, by about 0.06 per cent per quarter. which in a year is about 0.25 per cent faster. In an economy that in today's terms is above $1.6 trillion.
    a quarter of a percentage point extra GDP growth a year is big bikkies. The stronger GDP growth helps explain, no doubt, why job creation is faster when Labor are in power."

    As quoted by:

    Stephen Koukoulas is one of Australia's leading economic visionaries, past Chief Economist of Citibank, heading global research in London for TD and Senior Economic Advisor to the Prime Minister.
     
    LibGS, sumterrence, marty998 and 3 others like this.