Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?

Don't try it, if you think it's like poker.

 

it IS poker, however you characterise it.

 

Sydney now at $1.04M in August...

http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x308/LPShadow/Residex-Trend-August-2015.png~original

Could it reach $1.1M by the end of the year?

 

What's the median today?
APRA is working, slowing down this market and other market.

Interesting times ahead.

MTR

 

It doesn't matter. You should aim to perform better that the median.

 

Residex index for Sydney hit $1.08M in November...

http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x308/LPShadow/Residex-Sydney-Trend-Nov15.png~original

 

Well called

How much arm twisting is required for an identical Brisbane graph?

Would love to watch the red line progress for that cycle too.

 

be interesting what the next quarter show, I expect sub $1M????

 

I would think it will do the opposite as it's the cheaper stuff not selling as I understand it. Isn't it the high end stuff that's still moving?

 

But the stats are based on median, an overall average if prices are falling it will effect the median, at least that is what I believe

 

The median will move if homes smack bang in the middle of the price range move (up or down). Movements at the top of bottom end of the market don't directly affect it.

 

Thanks, got it.
Lets watch the next quarter, see what happens

 

In most cases it's a synthetic median. The data provider calculates the averages based on the sales data and extrapolates it from there.

 

so if the majority of sales are higher end then the figures will be rubbery at best, vice versa?..

 

I think that all these things are approximations to what's happening, and it depends on the particular set of statistics and the models being used. But if you're only seeing sales at the high end, then I'd expect the middle and low end values to be calculated, rather than derived directly from data.

You'll probably get a better view by comparing several indices, and looking at the direction and magnitude of change. Normally that's pretty well correlated, in that you won't see Residex rising at 20% a year, whilst the ABS is falling at 10%.

 

Damn statistics

 

Shadow - I was trying to find your 'to the moon' graph, and couldn't. I was going to label it Brisbane.

 

What's the median price of properties on the monopoly board?

 

Interesting to review predictions, polls etc. Sydney has hit over $1,000,000 median but it did not happen in 2015 but nonetheless it happened... 2016..... how high can it go? Interesting times.

I am done doing predictions for Sydney market, I really thought Sydney would be in cool off mode by now, not so.

 

I think shadow's pretty spot on with Sydney prediction... most reporting portal such as Residex indicated Sydney hit $1m in 2015?

Nevertheless, shadow also have a post in another forum "Will Perth's median house price approach $1 million by 2021?"

I hear MTR mumbling 'over my dead body'