VIC Will the Inner Suburbs always be desirable?

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Orion, 24th Aug, 2018.

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  1. Orion

    Orion Well-Known Member

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    At sometime in the next 2 years I'll likely buy myself a PPOR in Melbourne.

    My budget should allow me to get a nice apartment in the inner suburbs, a townhouse in the middle suburbs or a house in the outer burbs. I'm told to by 'inner' for best growth.

    I used to live in the US, and noticed as cities such as LA changed and grew, the 'inner' (downtown) areas actually became less desirable (lots of homeless people / social problems) and it was the 'outer' areas (such as Orange County) that became the nice, desirable areas to live (low crime, nice houses).

    From time to time I drive through King St and the CBD on a Friday or Saturday night, and from what I can see the CBD (at least) is becoming pretty undesirable, to the point that I simply avoid it now.

    I have a friend who lives in an nice single fronted period property in Kensington, and year by year he tells me the Flemmington commission area tenants nearby are growing street by street towards his house, and he's believes if it continues the value of his home will fall.

    I think it's a long stretch, but it does make me wonder, if we continue with the population increases into Melbourne, and we have quite a lot of cheaper apartment stock in the CBD, would a similar thing happen here? Naturally areas like Prahran, Armadale and so on should still be nice, but South Yarra / Chapel St has those apartment towers as well.

    I'm asking this question just because I'm challenging the concept that the outer areas (where lifestyle is good and supply is constrained) might actually hold up alright.

    Also, I suspect that over time people will place more importance on living in the trees / more in nature, as things get more congested and air quality lowers in the inner areas, which may also have an effect (unsure if I'm on my own thinking of this one).
     
  2. Big Will

    Big Will Well-Known Member

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    Do a survey at your work place and say if you were given the opportunity to be given the exact same house being 4 beds etc on the same land size (lets say 1 acre) where would they prefer to have the house.

    Richmond
    Doncaster
    Lilydale

    I am assuming most people will gravitate towards Richmond - has better infrastructure, closer to an employment hub etc.

    If you then asked it towards a bunch of retirees the might actually put it in reverse order or pick Doncaster as number 1 as being close to employment isn't a key driver for them.

    Go back 100 years ago and people generally didn't want to live in Richmond now it is trendy and places are worth millions - it isn't because the building got better but the demand to live closer increased the land price which inturn increased the property price.

    Things that may change the demand being centralised might be driverless cars but I am not convinced as you still need to sit in the car. It could be flying cars - still not convinced as there is still a distance you need to sit in something. However if we invent and is commercially viable a teleporter then the demand to be close to infrastructure would drop and perhaps increase in outer areas but until this time the demand will flow from the centre.
     
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  3. Jamane

    Jamane New Member

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    I would choose Doncaster.
     
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  4. purplecat

    purplecat Well-Known Member

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    I will choose Doncaster too

    Freeway & buses to CBD
    Big shopping centre
    Plenty of schools & hospitals nearby
    And train & tram in Box Hill is only 10 mins away
     
  5. Joynz

    Joynz Well-Known Member

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    Also, you would never get the same size land in Richmond. Blocks are tiny.
     
  6. Big Will

    Big Will Well-Known Member

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    We are pretending the blocks are all 1 acre or we can pretend all houses are on 300m2 it is about the location.
     
  7. MikeyBallarat

    MikeyBallarat Well-Known Member

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    I would choose Lilydale tbh
     
  8. hieund85

    hieund85 Well-Known Member

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    In 20-30 years time, Melbourne population would become so high that the CBD and the nearby areas can no longer serve as employment hubs. There will be more employment hubs in outer suburbs to decentralise the city. This should be the right way to develop Melbourne imo. Then I can see the possibility of Doncaster being the obvious choice compared to Richmond. However, we are in Australia where the people in power rarely do logical things.
     
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  9. TAJ

    TAJ Well-Known Member

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    Have you visited overseas congested cities? The one great thing about Australia was that we had room to move so to speak, even in our cities. Why we have to become like everywhere else : over populated, crime ridden, poverty stricken people just doesn't make sense.
    People apparently want to escape this scenario yet continue to replicate what they left.
    A PPOR decision should be done more with the heart than the head.

    Then again I wouldn't live in a city for love nor money!
     
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  10. MrFox

    MrFox Well-Known Member

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    Unsavoury characters are not necessarily only CBD problem. Just take a train from Ringwood to Croydon and see who you bump in to. Some outer areas can be just as rough.
    I had to stop in Hallam once at the shopping centre to buy something on the way to visit some family. The carpark was full of bogans in their Commodores drinking JD cans and looking very suss. I left the family in the car and locked them inside. I am not a snob but I would not like my kids to grow up in an environment like that.
     
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  11. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Given @Orion original post, I say the comparo is about different size/abodes but same price.

    Classic question of I have $x, where should I buy (apartment in Richmond, slightly bigger apartment in Doncaster, house in Lilydale....)

    The Y-man
     
  12. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Our first purchase was in an outer (now middle ring) suburb 20+ km out of town in a place called Clayton South. Try buying a 3BR/2Bth unit there now....

    We also bought units (not even houses) in far flung Lalor and Epping in 2013 for $280k each. Compared to our 1BR in Prahran which was valued about $300k in 2013: today the apartment in Prahran is about $320k, the unit in Epping is $400+

    The Y-man
     
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  13. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    I'm working on this now...will have to first defy the laws of physics...
    A teleporter machine.. Source is Brisbane...destination = Amsterdam or Thailand (hey you said it needs to be commercially viable :))
     
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  14. hobartchic

    hobartchic Well-Known Member

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    Same thing is happening with some inner city areas of Hobart and it's a deliberate move to place more dept housing in the city. I actually live in a suburb with dept housing and most people are fine. The few that were trouble have moved elsewhere (I suspect to jail due to drug trafficking - not advertised).
    Inner city areas can drop. I think they are more likely at the moment because the demographic with the most buying power are families in their thirties and forties that want to move out to family homes in 'burbs. Land becomes important for most people as their children grow.
     
  15. Big Will

    Big Will Well-Known Member

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    You really are Brisbane fan boy number 1 :)
     
  16. Orion

    Orion Well-Known Member

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    I'd say the closest large technology change will be driver less 'share' cars (i.e. Uber). We already have them in SF and so on in the US.

    They might only be 5 to 10 years away. You would imagine over time they'd be able to go faster and faster, probably even have dedicated lanes and so on.

    If I can hop in my car, start reading a good book or watch a TV show for 45 mins and then be at work, and if the cities become more and more like over-populated cities you see overseas (even today walking down Collins St can be a mission) living out in the burbs (and working out in a business park type area in a middle suburb like Clayton) will become a lot more desirable lifestyle.

    I agree - there are some crappy outer areas too. I'm still leaning towards your Belgraves and surrounds, I think over time people will value nature more, and the slope of the blocks creates a constrained supply. Nobody is doing splitter blocks out that way. Just my guess though.
     
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  17. hobartchic

    hobartchic Well-Known Member

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    You mean the driverless cars that keep killing people? I think they need to fix that "glitch" before they become popular. The business behind it makes for interesting analysis.

    I very much doubt we will see driverless cars.

    Autonomous Uber vehicle kills woman pushing bike across street
     
  18. Orion

    Orion Well-Known Member

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    "Computers will never need more than 640k of ram"

    Of course we'll see driverless cars, it's just a matter of when. Maybe it'll be 20 years.

    Back to the topic though, Melbourne just hit 5 million. Peak service trams and trains are jammed backed, even the footpaths in the city can't cope with the pedestrian traffic. 40 min trips 15 years ago into the CBD now take 1.5 hours.

    I still think there will be a shift away from the city, more people living in the regionals (Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong and so on).

    The question is, will the growth still occur mainly in the inner areas or will it be more even as this trend continues?
     
  19. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    It will be generational.

    Driverless trains (already happening at places like airports) may be more palatable to the current lot. Planes and cars a bit later till we get the AI sorted out.

    The Y-man