Will the "bubble" pop?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Luca, 11th Jul, 2021.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Lol
    I never followed him, but I was curious…. I know John has a good handle on economics 101 and property in general….. I failed at this:)
     
  2. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I'm crap at economics too but all you have to do is listen to his views/claims plus see his record on being soooo wrong on so many things. And the dangerous part? He says it all as if its gospel and anyone else believing to the contrary is an idiot. He talks as if he's an expert on Australian markets.

    Personally I wouldn't waste my time on anything he has to say.

    But John may have a different view. :)
     
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  3. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like Dent????
     
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  4. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    There are quite a few people who lost out big time because they fell into his trap and self serving narrative over the years. Millions, if not 10s of millions of dollars could have been gained. Dam shame. But ultimately, the individual is responsible.
     
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  5. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    Robert should worry about his USA than here.
    They are printing money like it is going out of fashion.
    The only reason USA haven't collapse is because of their military and USA dollars as global currency. For now!!! but I don't think they will be in flavour in 100 years.
     
  6. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    Dent is the biggest joke of them all.
    Good for entertainment and do the 180 degrees of what he says. You will make money.
     
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  7. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    ;)

    Everyone’s printing money, nothing new.

    I do get annoyed when so called gurus from another countries give advice on Australia when they probably have no real idea

    I sniff a new book deal;)
     
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  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Guess whose make money? And it ain't the investors who are buying his books

    They all have an angle and its lucrative, even if they get it wrong…… they are like ever ready batteries … they never die
     
    Last edited: 13th Jul, 2021
  9. Truly Exotic

    Truly Exotic Well-Known Member

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    Pop or not
    Does anybody have any case studies/reports, on what happens when property reaches price points where its unaffordable to 99% of the population?

    Eg if the median property price became $5m and only the rich 0.1% could afford
    Or does economic theory dictate that this would never happen?
     
  10. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    This wont happen

    RBA would step in or lending regulations would put the brakes on this.
     
  11. gach2

    gach2 Well-Known Member

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    Do some research on a some Indochinese countries. Think it might be Laos (or maybe just cities within) where it has happened.

    In saying that its your perception of what's affordable and what's not. If the median became 5m it might be that 30% have come up with new methods of deriving income to afford it but as your social circle/associates it might just be 0.1% that could.

    Eg tell a baby boomer that a school leaver is travelling the world in which they might think they are surviving of mummy/daddy or living a hippy lifestyle but in reality they could be a social media influencer making millions. (not having a go at baby boomers just and example)
     
  12. maroon

    maroon Well-Known Member

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    Low buyer volume will mean vendors drop prices to a point which will get them an offer. Prices will cap off where demand meets supply and that must happen well before the 0.1% mark?

    On the other hand, Sydney isn't affordable for the average income earner, but people keep stretching themselves to get in. Intergenerational mortgages, half a house and quadruple income families could make $5m houses the norm. The other possibility is 0.1% owning the entire market, with others renting for life. Many essential sectors today are owned by the 0.1% with the rest of us happily buying goods and services from them.
     
  13. Truly Exotic

    Truly Exotic Well-Known Member

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    well im not an economics expert , past uni level,
    but a few things that came to my mind were,
    -at some point, growth would stop when prices became too high for the average house price to income ratio got too high,
    -but at some point people will stop putting a house with a backyard within 1.5 hours from the CBD as requirement and be willing to accept townhouses/units/apartments
    -we may become a nation where more/everyone rents, like some european countries
    -as far as social media influencers, I dont think the world is full of them making millions, like any generation, there are young people who change/challenge how they make money, while the older/traditional people just shake their heads in disbelief (me included)
    -governments/RBA etc will intervene by raising/lowering interest rates, taxes, stamp duty, this and that to stop prices from getting too silly
     
  14. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

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    Thanks MTR,

    I am actually a big fan of Robert Kiyosaki. I even like his controversial stuff like "your house is not an asset" and "the rich don't work for money".

    In this case, I think he is spot on in terms of his overall world view, but I think he is wrong on timing.

    So, when he says this is the biggest bubble in history - I think he is broadly right (though the Dow was relatively more expensive in the year 2001 than it is now); and i agree that central banks are bubble machines and literally exist under Marxist concepts.

    I like gold and silver like Robert Kiyosaki and for the same reasons I like real estate. And I see the case for Bitcoin.

    As I said, my critique is more about timing: the policy settings at the moment are all wrong and will end in tears. But in my opinion, the bubble is just getting started.
     
  15. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Jooooooohn.....you've gone over to the dark side.........:p
     
  16. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

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    Which bit my friend?
     
  17. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    He is absolutely clueless, just like the rest of them. Or rather, he is not clueless but spins information to suit his own agenda. His famous line "your home is not an asset". I understand where he is coming from BUT he is using that line in an extremely irresponsible manner and newbies listening could easily be led astray. And he does it for the 'shock factor' to suit his own agenda and pockets. His talk of the economy etc etc etc. Anyone can make predictions and given enough time, you'll be able to find a situation to substantiate your claim 25 years ago.

    If I were mentoring anyone and they asked me about his material, I would tell them if you enjoy flirting with danger and half truth, quarter truths, then go ahead.

    Just my opinion :)

    Australia Property CRASH 71%? Harry Dent, Schiff, Martin North, Maloney, Kiyosaki - OzGAG Economy - YouTube
     
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  18. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

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    I hear you. I am influenced by a bunch of people that I don't completely agree with.

    I am a big fan of Mike Maloney for example (cited in your clip), and he has been saying for the last decade that Australian real estate is over valued and will crash. He's wrong, and I disagree with that particular prediction.

    However, these guys I think have a more complete and holistic understanding of the economy. It is typically the gold bugs and the Austrian school of economics that have been far more accurate predicting the nature of crises over the last century, than have been the Keynesians.

    Regarding the "your home is not an asset", I know there is another thread on this, so no need to get into it here. I think it is a provocative way to say what we all already really understand. Your house is a durable good, and it is something of value, but it is not an investment. His point is about where to put your house in your mental balance sheet, that's all.
     
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  19. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    At the end of the day, if a person talking about financial markets doesn't have any real practical value for the average investor looking to build a portfolio, I put them in the 'useless' basket. I don't want to waste time with folks who can't really offer any practical advice which will help me expand my wealth, step by step.

    If others find value in his commentary, hey, more power to em:)

    But my opinion of his material is its very dangerous to those reading who do not have a broad understanding of wealth creation and risk, which is most newbies.
     
    Last edited: 14th Jul, 2021
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  20. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

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    Yep, I put Harry Dent in the "useless" category, but I like Kiyosaki. He's pretty practical.