Will the Australian Dream Lead Us Into a Debt Crisis?

Discussion in 'Loans & Mortgage Brokers' started by Luca, 7th Apr, 2016.

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  1. Skilled_Migrant

    Skilled_Migrant Well-Known Member

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    It is not a hypothesis or a prediction. Just an example that the population size is not permanent and counts for little when the economy turns. Has happened to bigger cities, countries and civilizations.
     
  2. sanj

    sanj Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    i genuinely cant work out if you're serious or a troll, there are times you post some pretty insightful stuff and other times ridiculous stuff like this above statement that simply does not stand up to any scrutiny.

    - City of Detroit's decline started over 50 years ago. WEEEEELLLLL before the GFC and its population peaked in 1950. This is for the city that gets all the headlines and "scary" photos. Just outside this municipality sits the Detroit metro area and some other counties or municipalities, whatever they call them over there. Those areas are bigger than the city of Detroit population wise and include many wealthy areas. Detroit overall, as a city, even today, has an average wage in line with the rest of America. The City of Detroit that went bankrupt is barely half the size of the perth metro area.

    - Between December 2000 and December 2010, 48 percent of the manufacturing jobs in the state of Michigan were lost. Does a city in such steep decline in the immediate decade prior to the GFC and for the previous 4 decades generally resemble Perth?

    - It was heavily reliant on the automotive industry and over a period of 4 or 5 decades it declined with not much done to shift the economy and jobs in the city to other sectors. there has been a 60% drop in population since its peak. 60%. MAJORITY of this drop in population happened prior to the GFC so your claim that detroit was like perth before GFC is a complete fabriction and in no way accurate. feel free to disprove me.

    - WA at the peak of the mining boom, had the resources industry contributing 29% to the state GSP with services about even at 28%. From an employment POV, resource industry was less than 9%, although granted a flow on effect has been felt elsewhere in the WA economy too.

    - with the way our states and local governments are funded in this country Vs say, american citied like detroit, it means a tempering of the extremes. Eg, during the boom WA did not see all of the upside, eg some of the major projects are located in Federal territory but considered WA for all intents and purposes, meaning royalties will be collected by the commonwealth and not WA, while WA had to deal with the growing pains of keeping up with such rapid population growth that projects like that contributed to. GST distribution also means that a state like WA wont see all of the upside during a boom but will also see some federal funds should a big bust happen.

    - the economy definitely does have its challenges, there is no denying that. It also is full of opportunity at the moment as well. Many people are pursuing those opportunities, taking advantage of the fact theyve been building up their savings or that their mortgage repayments or rents vs incomes is the most affordable it has been for well over a decade.

    - perth has also become a far superior location to both live in and travel to compared to 5/10/20 years ago and that is helping to not only attract visitors on holiday also taking advantage of lower AUD, but people from other states and helping stem the traditional loss of young people from Perth to syd/melbourne. this has meant that although there is a net interstate migration loss for perth atm, it is small and not nearly as big as one might have expected it to be.








    Anyway, short version is that for whatever reason you choose to often make highly inaccurate, sweeping comments despite clearly actually being pretty intelligent and having a decent grasp of things. sometimes you get away with it, sometimes you dont. today is the latter. detroit was not similar to perthj before the gfc, that is equal parts laughable and ludicrous. decent trolling effort though, a solid 7/10 so that's something i guess.
     
    Last edited: 11th Apr, 2016
    Cactus, HD_ACE, keithj and 3 others like this.
  3. sanj

    sanj Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    the economy started turning in the 1960s in detroit, do some reading. comparing it to perth in its current situation? umm yeah nah.

    im not even saying this from a parochial or biased POV, it genuinely doesnt make any sense.
     
  4. Skilled_Migrant

    Skilled_Migrant Well-Known Member

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    Please read the relevant posts laid out chronologically, to understand the context of the statement before labeling and judging :
    There were 8 macro economic points made with regard to national economy. Out of which one of the three examples of one point (Perth) was challenged on the basis of population disparity on the higher side. Detroit was given as an example wherein the population was higher than Perth. In hindsight the sentence could have been framed better by inclusion of one more word (Detroit's population was similar to perth), but that does not detract from the contextual relevance imposed by the query or the inability of the reader to import it.

    The other (subtle and clever: credit where it is due) arguments are noteworthy for their standard misinformation practices:
    • Straw man fallacy: Make up an issue (Detroit vs Perth) you may safely imply exists based on your interpretation of the opponent/opponent arguments/situation. Amplify the significance so as to appear to debunk all the issues (real and fabricated), while actually avoiding discussion of the real issues.
    • Name calling and ridicule: Done with a view to intimidate the opponents so that they dither in their standpoint and actual issue is ignored or not debated. Examples from the recent posts include "sweeping statements, laughable, ludicrous, inaccurate, ridiculous, troll, schadenfreude, chicken little, does not stand to scrutiny, get away with it".
    • Emotionalize, Antagonize, and Goad Opponents: Previous examples are equally relevant here. Done with a view to avoid the issue and shift the focus on opponent's sensitivity.
    • High Road: Sprinkle the accusations and falsifications with complimentary terms (intelligent) and truths to invoke sympathy, respect and acceptance from the broader audience while avoiding the issue. E.g. "im not even saying this from a parochial or biased POV, it genuinely doesnt make any sense."
    While the pain of Perth investors is understandable, Perth's disproportional reliance on mining, is having significant impact on property prices and will only be exacerbated in future.
     
  5. sanj

    sanj Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    cool story bro.

    doesn't change the fact that Detroit was in fact not similar to perth before the GFC.

    you also must be mistaking me for someone else if you think im a one eyed perth cheerleader when it comes to the economy.
     
  6. Skilled_Migrant

    Skilled_Migrant Well-Known Member

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    Difficult to debate when "My opinions are facts and your's stories..."
     

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