QLD Will Brisbane catch up with Melbourne

I have 30 year median house price data and compare the Brisbane & Melbourne over the 30 years. (see attachment - column Bris/Mel %)

1. Between 1981-1083, 1991-1998, 2008 -2009 the Brisbane median house price exceeds the Melbourne price.
2. Between 2016 - 2021 the Brisbane median house price is about 70% of the Melbourne price

Do you think Brisbane house prices will pass Melbourne in the near future?

 

Look at Brisbane 10 year growth rate. Last 10 year growth = 78% whereas historically Brisbane 10 year growth can be more than 100%. Do you think there is still space for Brisbane to grow faster than other cities.

 

None of them will be growing in the near future (depending on definition), it may drop less than Melbourne

 

Nice table, would you include Perth please

 

Brissie is now around 920k..... Melbourne is about 1.02 at the moment. This time I don't it will exceed Melbourne unless Melbourne drops more than 10%.

Having said that... I reckon Brisbane will be under 900k by Dec this year as it is slowing rapidly now...and expect it to go to negative growth by Q4 this year. It is about 6 months behind Sydney.

 

So I reckon investors should look to Perth and Adelaide

 

any investors who have been in 1991-1998 can tell me why house price fell down in Melbourne but grew in Brisbane? Mining boom or whatever?

 

Adelaide has also gone up a lot...have one sale there now.

 

Brisbane May catch Melbourne but it’s decline will be far more pronounced.

 

No idea. But i wish the media would stop putting melb in the same bucket as sydney and all the smaller capitals in another. Price wise syd/melb are light years apart. Melb wayyyy closer to brisbane.

 

I have updated the attached file. Data from 2003 - 2021 from ABS whereas data in Jun 2022 from Core Logic. They may not consistent calculated the median price between the two providers.

However, it seems that Brisbane's house price has caught up with Melbourne's. The price ratio Brisbane/Melbourne = 97% in June 2022.

However, the fact that Melbourne house prices dropped 19% in 6 months seems not to be accurate because I used two different data providers in two periods.

 

You will see Brisbane fall a lot faster soon.

As demonstrated during COVID Melbourne only went up 14%. Not the sizzling 30% which Sydney did.

I reckon the correction will be less than 10%. At which point it will be under 1m. It is a steady Eddy.

It then typically goes back to slow growth again.

 

I don't think that is accurate.

I personally think Brisbane has peaked. If it's median is say 920k today. Melbourne is about 1.04m today so Brisbane got to about 87% of .... Melbourne's value. Unless it drops signifantly at which point it could to over 90%

Remember Brisbane only reached it 28% growth on the back of emergency rates. This is now on pulling back.

 

Thanks @sash

Where you get median price for Melbourne - about 1.04m today

 

https://www.domain.com.au/research/house-price-report/march-2022/

It is based on an estimate of Melbourne peaking at 1.09m in March. I reckon it is about 1.04 so a 4.4% drop from March (that data would have been based on the peak in Jan/Feb).

Sydney peaked at 1.6m...I reckon it is now is under 1.55m...maybe even 1.5m median.

Data for June qtr should be out later next month.

 

We don't know what will happen in the future. However, my questions are

Would you invest in Brisbane, if the median dwelling price of Brisbane is higher than Melbourne?

Imagine you live in other capital cities or regional areas other than Brisbane. Would you be tempted to migrate to Brisbane, if the Brisbane house price is dearer than Melbourne, which would be 2nd most expensive capital city in Australia?

 

Not to mention one of the top 10 cities to live from a lifestyle perspective.....