Will Adani be going ahead soon

Now that coal lovers are back
and what will be the impact on Brisbane market? (not environment )

 

Same old, same old

 

PS, Adani's site is nowhere near Brisbane.

 

Ya I know. But hopefully some money would stay in Qld and lift economy?

 

With a near fully autonomous mine the benefits will flow to corporate profits

 

A few fellas will have to build it first before any corporate profits go anywhere.

 

Not much I don't think..

Still waiting on that rivers of wealth to come through from the whole LNG "boom" in QLD These things never bring as much benefit as claimed.

They usually only benefit two groups, chiefly the owners/shareholders of the mine. and usually the state government who receives a bunch of royalty payments ...eventually.

The amount of long-term jobs created is not going to be large, and most of their estimates are just grand claims to con governments.

 

Our GST system will see to it that this doesn't happen

WA with its mining and O&G creates something like 40% of national GDP from 10% of the population, and at its peak had $200bn of construction projects underway. Yet now with those sites in operation, it is one of the most broke states (albeit some poor financial management from the former government). The mine would no doubt make an impact in regional QLD through construction, but much like gman65 has pointed out, its no different to the whole LNG boom. Once the wave has past it will be BAU, sans a healthy water table for the farmers to rely on.

 

Sure mmmm
No

Dont let Left agenda fool you.
Its not the mums and dads that pay for this country through their taxes. Especially ay one under say $60k who is actually a net recipient.

The Committee for the Economic Development of Australia in October 2018 noted the Queensland government should expect $286 billion from liquid natural gas over the next 15 years.


$286,000,000,000

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/na...mining-downturn-deloitte-20181022-p50b9u.html





Here is another.
Oil and gas to add half a trillion to GDP
An analysis prepared by Deloitte Access Economics for the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA) predicts Australia’s GDP could increase by $455 billion by 2035 as a result of the oil and gas boom.

Even on the most conservative estimates, based only on the $217 billion of capital investments already committed or “highly likely”, the oil and gas industry’s GDP contribution between now and 2035 would amount to $357 billion in net present value terms. Under that scenario, the industry’s share of GDP would increase from 2.3 per cent in 2012 to 3.5 per cent by 2020. On more bullish estimates, the industry could account for just under 5 per cent of GDP within seven years, at which juncture construction is expected to be replaced with production.

The oil and gas industry, which paid $8.9 billion in tax in the 2010/11 financial year, could be paying $18.9 billion by the 2034/35 financial year.

There is an immense pipeline of oil and gas projects awaiting approval, most notably a range of large LNG developments in WA and Queensland. But APPEA chief executive David Byers has warned that growing cost pressures threaten to take the wind out of the Australian oil and gas industry’s sails.

“The high cost of doing business in Australia at a time of increased international competition is making it much harder for Australia to win market share and attract investment,” Byers cautioned.

 

I bet the Labor Government in Canberra could do with that sort of money.

Bugger!!! They NOT there!!!!!!!

 

It is sad that you do not realise that yes they contribute to gdp (as this is a measure of traded volume) but they do not pay corporate tax.

They “sell” their mined product to a HK / Singapore “marketing” company at a zero profit within their Australian entity. All profit is earned within their low tax entity when they sell it to the final purchaser - I used to work for a major Australian miner and this is how they all structure themselves.

 

This has been one of the biggest issues facing Australia for a while...
It's also a chief reason why wages havnt moved much.
No easy answer here...it's comes down to be more productive, offer higher value stuff, or innovate into something new and useful...limited choices and neither is easy.

 

Would be a substantial flow of royalties into QLD:

Mineral royalty rates | Business Queensland

Average price per tonne for period:

• Up to and including $100 - 7% of value
• Over $100 and up to and including $150
  • First $100 - 7% of value
  • Balance - 12.5% of value
• More than $150
  • First $100 - 7% of value
  • Next $50 - 12.5% of value
  • Balance - 15% of value

 

In 2018, QLD exported 223M tonnes of coal (ref: Queensland coal exports hit new record in 2018 - Australian Mining). Current price is circa $87USD/tonne (~$124AUD at 0.70usd):

= $100 x 223m = 22.3b x 0.07 = $1.561bn
+ $24 x 223m = 5.352b x 0.125 = $0.669bn
==
Total: $2.23b

According to Adani, absolute peak capacity will be 60m tonnes of "****" high ash coal (so will not fetch those prices above I would say). This is why it's sat in the ground for so long until now of course, nobody else wants the rubbish other than some nutty Indians.

So anyhow, I'll be super generous and assume today's prices.. Adani's contribution will be something in the order of:

= $100 x 60m = 6b * 0.07 = 420m
+ $24 x 60m = 1.44b * 0.125 = 180m
===
Total Adani (best world scenario planets aligning fairy dust land): 600M

$600M *at very best* per year royalties is not going to change Brisbane, the rest of Queensland, or anywhere else significantly.

You then have to look at the whole thing with the background of world demand:

Experts such as the International Energy Agency are saying coal demand is expected to flatline over the next 5 years (ref: Coal demand will remain steady through 2023, International Energy Agency says), and well I can't see it going anywhere but down over a longer term than that.

So I expect you can expect much lower lower figures than the above (probably closer to something like 300m/year) unless some miracle happens for coal and Adani

That $150/tonne figure is laughable - sounds like something put in after the mining council screamed like children when more profitable MRT changes were suggested a few years back. Even if there may be a few spikes over a few months, I cannot see that as an average price anytime soon (it has only been briefly above for a couple of months over the last 20 years).

Unfortunately these sorts of things are very hard for the media to publish, people don't like numbers, people want to read a simplistic story over their morning coffee and not think..

 

I believe its referred to as "BEPS" base errosion profit shifting. A large number of mining companies were complicit in this loop hole during the boom.

 

Apparently start could be as early as June
Labour backflip in qld is quite stunning
Everyone loves their jobs and assets more than anything (obviously)...
Adani mine could start by mid-June

 

Well the super mine right next to Adani just went belly up because of a lack of investors, so who knows.

 

How condescending.

Of course people love jobs. Unless you are content to live on Centrelink benefits all your life, or are lucky enough born into an incredibly wealthy family, a job is essential for your financial, social and mental well-being.

Unlike the capital cities, jobs are extremely scarce in the drought-stricken, regional areas of inland Australia. Jobs bring people, families and income to areas doing it really tough.

And Labor hasn’t back-flipped. You can’t back-flip when you never made a decision in the first place.

The Adani saga has dragged on for far too long. They should decided 8 years ago instead of ordering condition after condition, sitting on their hands and hoping the whole situation would just go away.

The State Government has to make a decision - yes or no.
Marg

 

World’s Most Controversial Coal Mine Doesn’t Add Up

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

"It would cost about $88 to produce a ton of coal that would sell for $66 on the open market."

"We’ve speculated in the past that keeping the project on life support helps avoid a painful billion-dollar writedown; perhaps a sufficient level of taxpayer subsidy might be enough to salvage something from the wreckage."

 

Headline -

"Annastacia Palaszczuk demands action from herself"..