Why property chat ?

Agree...this is already happening in Perth in the unit market in Perth.

More fundamentally.....it also affect the build as the market contracts for example one of the largest builders in Perth was doing 1300-1400 build a year. Now they are lucky to do 900 per year.

The cost of building a 140sq 3x2x2 (small one)...cost about 155-165k complete....there in lies the opportunity...while the other lemmings are catching falling knives...the smart money is moving to down markets....

I am not saying Perth is ready yet...but those with a longer term view..this presents opportunity.

 

How do i sign up! OTP2YA take my money

 

What do you expect from the country that brinks the motorbike ashtray & submarine fly screen & ejector seats for helicopters ?

The old saying, what goes up, must come down - but they left of the must go up again.

You mean "1YAP" or "2YAP" from dog to hero 1 year after plan

OTP is the equiv. of buying a prototype yet to be produced new car, a year after it has had time to prove itself and she a good deal of value

 

Then up again. It used to be called the the boom/bust cycle or boom/correction. Now every time prices move up a bit, it's a world ending bubble. Although admittedly the crash in Ireland was larger than normal, so was the boom. Doesn't mean everything that comes after is a bubble though.

 

Old dogs like me have seen it all before.

I have personally seen the Moranbah situation before, the Gladstone situation before, the Broken Hill situation before, ...

I know a person who bought a property earlier this year and they paid the vendor $600,000 less than what the vendor paid for it 8 years earlier.

I know that, in 2024 (8 years time), someone (hopefully me ) will buy a property for a price significantly less than what the vendor paid for it.

History repeats itself. That is one of the many things I like about the property market.

 

The one thing you can (pardon the pun) bank on never, ever changing is the psychology of human emotions, greed, fear etc etc. Understand that, and you'll always be able to see opportunities and/or be able to plan for them. That's all I ever do.

 

Which claims and what post please

 

Quoted in full for accuracy.

 

I've had an awful lot of luck and coincidence over my time then.

Some people talk about an issue, a concept, a circumstance, and then bring other sets of issues and circumstances, mixes them all together which then distorts the entire conversation, issue, circumstance and renders everything in the mix a useless bunch of noise.

In my opinion, that's the virulent poison that spurts when you hear someone say " but this person bought in X mining town and lost everything, or this person had tenants that ruined their investment home, or this person bought a place and the bank valued it 50k less forcing the buyers to lose their deposit. or this person bought in NT and no growth in 5 years...therefore property investment is very, very risky" etc etc.

There is no background, no context, no details. So many issues mixed together which creates a distorted reality of what property investment is and how it can be useful. Most seasoned investors wont even let it in one ear to begin with. But many newbies or people interested to invest become discouraged to investigate further. A financially fatal mistake imo.

 

It's just luck and coincidence that I'm not buying in Melbourne or Sydney right now.

It's pure luck and coincidence I bought in Perth and Melbourne before the last boom.

 

@Perthguy we should buy Powerball together! Surely our combined luck will rub off on the ticket!

 

If you've got the right balls

 

What?! Vancouver's crashing? Yippee! Bye Australia.. buy Vancouver. Hello ski fields!

 

Damn.. Just checked prices in North Van,.. can't buy a house for <$1.2M
Some crash.. it's just a correction. Likely instigated by the restrictions imposed on foreign buyers to prevent the influx of Chinese cash and remove the "spike".

Oh well. back to Plan B.

 

This is where it gets confusing, we currently have an oversupply of apartments in most major capital cities around Australia but we are talking about large complexes.

The product/apartments you mention above are desirable, smaller complexes, low strata, well positioned etc. I don't expect these to have massive drop in prices because there is a demand for this product and not enough supply. I know because I have been looking for my daughter, unless I a confused??

MTR

 

Nope spot on Possum.

The great unwashed (you na....Sir Les Paterson types) will lump all the apartments in one group...but you are spot on in Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne well located walk-ups in good areas are moving well....

 

In particular noticing the desirable areas in inner city Melb, smaller complex, well located apartments are very much sort after. I would say that young professionals are priced out of the cottages which are well over $1M and then next best thing are the units. Townhouses are very desirable and seem to be as scarce as hens teeth, but that jumps up a level.

 

I was reading an article about "tulipmania" today and it reminded me of this post. Turns out:

"It's a myth that tulipmania devastated the Dutch economy. How could it, when so few people traded tulips? Even those who did survived the crash. Tulips were merely a sideline to their real professions. In any case, Goldgar explains, few buyers actually paid the exorbitant prices they had agreed. The crucial point is that this was a futures market. The flowers spent most of the year underground. Trades were made constantly, but were only paid for in summer when the bulbs were dug up. In the summer after the crash, most buyers simply refused to accept and pay for their bulbs. Some paid the sellers a small recompense, usually less than 5 per cent of the agreed price. These modest payouts don't seem to have ruined anyone. Rather, tulipmania damaged the code of honour that underlay Dutch capitalism. When buyers reneged, trust suffered. Tulipmania was a social crisis, not a financial one, argues Goldgar."​

How much of the legend of the 17th-Century tulipmania is true?

So all along we have been told that Sydney must crash, because... tulips! But now we find out tulip "mania" was not a financial crisis but a social one. Hmm.

Tagging @Leo2413

 

@Perthguy lol no idea about all this tulips talk...but perhaps our old friend emza has finally spelt the roses.

 

Oh, tulips was his favourite story. The Australian Property market is absolutely, 100%, going to crash because... wait for it... tulips!